EURUSD: Still towards 1

2015年2月23日

For those who are reading my studies and analysis for a long time, I've been drawing the long term trend as well as the potential change of trend. After the long march towards 1.40 I am studying carefully EURUSD on the path towards 1. Initially ECB was planning to go from A.395 to 1.15 but baring in mind the low price of commodities and having in mind that ECB is trying to launch the inflation through 3 policies, monetary mass, demand and imports of inflation through commodities prices, the last one had as an objectif 1.15 when WTI and Brent were above 85. Because that is not very much the case, EUR will head toward 1 or even bellow if FED allows it.That is why the timig of FED's interest rate increase with coincide with EU's catching up inflation timing.
Having said that n a pure chartist approach, thanks to Ichimoku, there is no Kumo twist at any foreseeable future. The lagging span is far from the price and although it seems that there is a Tenkan-Kijun Twist, that is absolutely not the case.
Concerning th RSI, there is a dangerous zone that could have been a sign of reversal of trend, but we have passed that stage and RSI will keep its trend bellow the red trend line.
Keep in mind that ECB will launch effectively its QE on March 6th.
At the present time, USD is still not that expensive, but a very expensive USd would undermine USA's competitiveness. If FED has a program to buy some EU bonds, it may have a little impact on the parity, but thus this would only decrease a little bit to speed depreciation of EUR against USD