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EURO / European Stockmarkets: Reverse of Capital Flows Likely

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Todays rise of the Euro might reverse a medium trend out of European Bonds and Stockmarkets from the view of US-Investors. The following article was published on Feb. 17th and is showing the opposite of what is going on today.

Quote: "The potential for chaos in Europe ahead of multiple elections and the recurrence of the Greek debt crisis have prompted investors to move money out of the region.
Redemptions from funds invested in European bonds reached an 11-week high in the second week of February as Italian bond funds saw their biggest outflow for more than seven months, according to data company EPFR." Source: cityam.com/259304/investors-pull-money-europe-pull-trump-strengthens

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FTSE/mib: Politics Driven European Markets

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MAR 26 2017: The FTSE/mib showing that in the last tradingdays Italy went up same time US-Markets are going down. The next days might show if this was a short term effect or maybe only or otherwise that Europe might start now to decouple from US Markets and might outperformed the Comp and the Dow.

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MAR 26 2017: To beat the market means sometime to know what might happen - before it happens:

Todays news, just a few minutes out:

Trumpflation setback sparks rush back into euro zone bonds
Economy20 minutes ago (Mar 27, 2017 11:40AM ET)

LONDON (Reuters) - Borrowing costs across the euro zone touched multi-week lows on Monday, as a legislative defeat for U.S. President Donald Trump on healthcare reforms raised questions about his ability to push through tax cuts and fiscal spending to boost the economy. As investors reassessed the outlook for growth and inflation, analysts said bets that the European Central Bank could look to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later were also being scaled back. Bond yields in Germany and France fell to their lowest levels in around three weeks, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields tumbled to one-month lows.
Quote: investing.com/news/economy-news/trumpflation-setback-sparks-rush-back-into-euro-zone-bonds-469095

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MAR 26 2017: Germany's ifo Index on highest levels since 2011

German Ifo business climate index rises to highest since 2011
Economic Indicators8 hours ago (Mar 27, 2017 04:04AM ET)

Investing.com - German business confidence improved to the highest level since June 2011, suggesting the euro zone's biggest economy was gaining momentum, industry data showed on Monday. The Ifo German research institute said its Business Climate Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 112.3 this month from a reading of 111.1 in February, above forecasts for 111.0. The Current Assessment Index increased to 119.3 in March from 118.4 a month earlier and beating expectations for 118.3. The Business Expectations Index, which measures attitudes toward business prospects over the next six months, inched up to 105.7 this month from 104.2, surpassing forecasts for a reading of 104.3.
The monthly index is based on a survey of around 7,000 German firms in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors.
EUR/USD was trading at 1.0867 from around 1.0865 ahead of the release of the data, while EUR/GBP was at 0.8643 from 0.8649 earlier.
Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-ifo-business-climate-index-rises-to-highest-since-2011-468982

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MAR 28 2017: JPMorgan: A Le Pen loss will be a win for European equities

Quote:

If far right French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen loses the election, it will spur a "significant" surge of inflows into European stocks, JPMorgan said in a note Monday.

How significant?

JPMorgan estimated that a Le Pen loss will see at least 10 percent of assets under management flow back into the region's stock markets. It noted that since the beginning of 2016, around $100 billion has flowed out of the segment, according to EPFR data, marking up a loss of nearly 10 percent of assets under management. "We believe that these flows at least could come back into the region, should political uncertainty fade, in addition to any potential new net inflows," JPMorgan said. Some opinion polls have shown that Le Pen, leader of the far right, anti-European Union, anti-immigrant National Front party, could be a top pick in the first round of voting in France's presidential election on April 23.
A healthy majority of analysts and experts believe Le Pen, who wants to pull France out of the euro zone, won't win the second round of voting on May 7 if she makes it past the first. But fears abound over a potential dark horse Le Pen victory, in line with political surprises such as Brexit and Donald Trump's U.S. presidential win. That's spurred concerns of a potential French exit from the euro azone, dubbed Frexit, and even a possible breakup of the bloc. While JPMorgan noted that any "Le Pen loss" lap of inflows was likely to boost the euro, it didn't expect that would weigh on European stocks, which have benefited from a weaker currency. "We think a stronger euro would not be an impediment for regional equities and, in fact, believe the euro will turn positively correlated to euro zone equities, no matter the election outcome," it said. It noted that the euro is typically seen as a vote of confidence in the region. Quote: cnbc.com/2017/03/28/jpmorgan-a-le-pen-loss-will-be-a-win-for-european-equities.html

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MAR 28 2017: Poll shows Macron win in French election in shadow of 'Penelopegate'
investing.com/news/world-news/new-poll-shows-centrist-macron-beating-le-pen-to-win-french-election-469217

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MAR 31 2017: Trump could face major problems short term threatens to get impeached.

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

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APR 03 2017: German manufacturing growth reached an reached an almost six-year high in March, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing showed on Monday. Manufacturing activity in France and Italy also rose, adding to signs of a pickup in momentum in the global economy.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-start-second-quarter-on-firm-note,-u.s.-policy-in-focus-as-trump-xi-talks-loom-470565

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APR 03 2017: "France will vote in a two-round presidential election at the end this month and at the start of May, with investors worried by the risk that the far-right anti-EU Marine Le Pen could stage a surprise victory"
Source: investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-starts-week-on-back-foot,-keeps-above-4-month-lows-470569

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

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APR 04 2017 - Qoute: Keep Your Eye On U.S.-China Summit
Source: m.investing.com/analysis/keep-your-eye-on-u.s.-china-summit-200181292

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APR 05 2017 Euro zone businesses started 2017 on a six-year high: PMI
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-businesses-started-2017-on-a-six-year-high:-pmi-471528

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APR 07 2017 Mixed jobs report leaves markets unfazed about Fed rate hikes
investing.com/news/economy-news/mixed-jobs-report-leaves-markets-unfazed-about-fed-rate-hikes-472517

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APR 10 2017 Euro zone investor morale shrugs off French election fears

Quote: BERLIN, April 10 (Reuters) - Investor sentiment in the euro zone improved more than expected in April to remain at the highest level in almost 10 years on Monday, shrugging off risks linked to a closely watched presidential election in France. The Frankfurt-based Sentix research group's euro zone index rose to 23.9 points, its highest level since August 2007. That exceeded the consensus forecast of 21.0 in a Reuters poll of analysts.The index last month rose to 20.7 from 17.4 in February as concern dissipated that global political risks could end an economic upswing.
"The euro zone has emancipated itself from global tendencies, as the assessment for other world regions is by no means unequivocal," Sentix said in a statement.
"The euro zone continues to make further economic progress.
Before the important presidential election in France, the current situation index for the euro zone economy rose to the highest level since January 2008," it said.
France will elect a new president in a two-round ballot in April and May. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is expected to contest a run-off against far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Her plans to ditch the euro and hold a referendum on European Union membership have spooked many investors, who fear a "Frexit" after British voters chose last year to leave the EU. Sentix said the current situation sub-index for the euro zone was 28.8, up from 23.8 in March. An index tracking Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, rose to 35.3 in April from 34.1 in March. "The strong euro zone, which has been fired up by an extremely expansive monetary policy, has not failed to leave its mark on the strongest euro economy," Sentix said, suggesting Germany was benefiting from a recovery in the currency bloc. By contrast, the indices for the United States and Japan fell. Sentix linked the fall in the world's largest economy to U.S. President Donald Trump. "The president talks a lot, but his messages are reaching investors increasingly less," Sentix wrote. "Trump has become a killer of perspectives."
U.S. stocks have risen to record highs since Trump's election after he vowed to remove some of the regulations introduced after the financial crisis and to boost spending on the military and infrastructure.
Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-investor-morale-shrugs-off-french-election-fears-472921

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APR 19 2017 - LePen only 2% ahead of Fillon. Odds rising that LePen might become 3rd on next Sunday.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

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APR 20 2017 - The market suddenly doubts the Fed will raise rates twice more this year
Traders assign just a 41 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year.
Goldman economist Jan Hatzius counters that concerns over the economy now will abate and allow the Fed to fulfill its projections for 2017
Source: cnbc.com/2017/04/20/the-market-suddenly-doubts-the-fed-will-raise-rates-twice-more-this-year.html

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APR 23 2017: For German Readers (english as soon as available)
Angela Merkel musste Trump Berichten zufolge 11-mal die Prinzipien der EU erklären
businessinsider.de/angela-merkel-musste-trump-berichten-zufolge-11-mal-die-prinzipien-der-eu-erklaeren-2017-4

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Italy's Renzi regains party leadership with big primary win
investing.com/news/world-news/italy's-renzi-looks-set-to-regain-party-leadership-478837

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German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI m.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-manufacturing-growth-near-six-year-high-in-april:-pmi-479204

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Moment of truth for the euro as France votes
investing.com/news/economy-news/moment-of-truth-for-the-euro-as-france-votes-480614

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European stock funds gather momentum as inflows cross all-time record high of $6 billion
cnbc.com/2017/05/12/european-stocks-epfr-deutsche-baml--macron-france-trump.html

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Comment:
CNBC Headline on Saturday/Sunday May 12/13: Billions of dollars move out of the US as some investors flee the beleaguered Trump trade
ETF.COM
Source: etf.com/sections/weekly-etf-flows/weekly-etf-flows-2017-05-11-2017-05-05
cnbc.com/2017/05/13/more-than-7-billion-flowed-into-intl-etfs-this-week.html

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Forex - Euro at 6-month highs before GDP data, dollar broadly lower investing.com/news/forex-news/forex---euro-at-6-month-highs-before-gdp-data,-dollar-broadly-lower-484665

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Forgiven for migrant crisis, Merkel in pole position for fourth term
investing.com/news/world-news/forgiven-for-migrant-crisis,-merkel-in-pole-position-for-fourth-term-484334

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"The rise of populism trade" failed - now traders are forced to buy Europe.

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"Safe haven trade" Europe. Six month ago Donald Trump called Europe something Like EU-topia.
investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-dives-to-six-month-low-on-geopolitical-jitters-485020

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Quote: Euro Aims For 1.12, USD Loses Serious Momentum

Tuesday's biggest forex story was the euro's strong rally. The single currency broke above 1.10 and came within a few pips of 1.11. Stronger-than-expected Eurozone data contributed to the move but the 1.10 break occurred well before the first releases. Euro is still coasting on Emmanuel Macron’s victory and the strong possibility that Angela Merkel will be reelected as Chancellor in the fall. Despite the ECB’s dovishness, data has been good — German investor confidence rose strongly in May, the Eurozone’s trade surplus hit a 3-month high and there were no revisions to the Eurozone’s Q1 GDP and French CPI reports. The euro also received help from the German–U.S. yield spread, which moved sharply higher in the past week. As our colleague Boris Schlossberg pointed out, political risk drove EUR/USD lower in April and now that this risk has been removed, we could see stronger gains in the currency, especially since the CFTC data last week showed speculators turning bullish for the first time since 2014. And that means there’s room to the upside and on a technical basis, we see no major resistance for EUR/USD until 1.12.
investing.com/analysis/euro-aims-for-1.12,-usd-loses-serious-momentum-200189549

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Exclusive: Portugal says economy growing faster than forecast investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusive:-portugal-says-economy-growing-faster-than-forecast-488109

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Comment: Here's why the gusher of billions into European stocks should continue
Political risks in Europe still exist, but analysts point to recent figures that suggest the euro zone economy is growing at its fastest rate in years, much faster than the U.S. economy.
European focused, U.S.-based domiciled funds alone saw net inflows of $4.2 billion in May, bringing total net flows year-to-date to $9.2 billion.
So far this year investors moved $13.7 billion to European funds.

cnbc.com/2017/05/30/heres-why-the-gusher-of-billions-into-european-stocks-should-continue.html

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The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closer
vox.com/world/2017/6/5/15739222/uk-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-surge

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Oversea Investors "buying" Europe, despite BREXIT and other negativ sentiment on Europes Future.