Renewables are the future
アップデート済
Although not necessarily for First Solar. Read on...
Positive fundamentals
First Solar focuses on module manufacturing and developing utility-scale solar plants. I work for grid operators (Europe), and see them doing more and more experiments with renewables. Developing batteries for storage, new grid components for PV (solar panels on roofs) that enable 'peak trashing', 'cable pooling' and more. Utilities are also focusing (since multiple years already) on developing a smart grid that enables the installment of renewables. Current electricity cables are chiefly installed with one-way currents in mind. However, due to decentralized renewables (PV, heat pumps, wind mills), a paradigm shift occurred. First Solar plays a small role in this new tune grid operators are playing.
Negative fundamentals
Buying
FSLR comes with plenty of fundamental risk:
1) Trump's opinion on renewables will not do the stock good and any negative news might send the stock down.
2) Trump is not keen on businesses doing a lot of business with foreign countries (FSLR trades heavily with China). On the other hand, Chinese solar providers might see more barriers to exporting their panels to the U.S., boosting FSLR sales.
3) Additionally, SCTY will be a competitor soon, as they're also getting inFSLR's sector. With 
TSLA at its back FSLR might struggle in the coming years. Note that SCTY is planning to build a huge plant in NY, perhaps gaining approval from Trump.
3) A quick glance on the income statement shows declining FCF and revenues and increasing debt.
Positive technicals
1) The 16-nov key level is quite important and might find support there soon. Note that positive news was brought out after the market closed, so look at the price action of 17-nov: almost 14% up. Since then it didn't make a new low.
2) At 16-nov it had the highest volume in an up-move. Down-moves at earnings report have higher volumes though.
Some more background facts:
Positive fundamentals
First Solar focuses on module manufacturing and developing utility-scale solar plants. I work for grid operators (Europe), and see them doing more and more experiments with renewables. Developing batteries for storage, new grid components for PV (solar panels on roofs) that enable 'peak trashing', 'cable pooling' and more. Utilities are also focusing (since multiple years already) on developing a smart grid that enables the installment of renewables. Current electricity cables are chiefly installed with one-way currents in mind. However, due to decentralized renewables (PV, heat pumps, wind mills), a paradigm shift occurred. First Solar plays a small role in this new tune grid operators are playing.
Negative fundamentals
Buying
FSLR comes with plenty of fundamental risk:1) Trump's opinion on renewables will not do the stock good and any negative news might send the stock down.
2) Trump is not keen on businesses doing a lot of business with foreign countries (
FSLR trades heavily with China). On the other hand, Chinese solar providers might see more barriers to exporting their panels to the U.S., boosting FSLR sales.3) Additionally, SCTY will be a competitor soon, as they're also getting in
FSLR's sector. With TSLA at its back FSLR might struggle in the coming years. Note that SCTY is planning to build a huge plant in NY, perhaps gaining approval from Trump.3) A quick glance on the income statement shows declining FCF and revenues and increasing debt.
Positive technicals
1) The 16-nov key level is quite important and might find support there soon. Note that positive news was brought out after the market closed, so look at the price action of 17-nov: almost 14% up. Since then it didn't make a new low.
2) At 16-nov it had the highest volume in an up-move. Down-moves at earnings report have higher volumes though.
Some more background facts:
- Here in our country, the head of the Dutch petrol/gas company believes natural gas will only be used for industry and transport in 50 years, not for warming households. He wants to use the gains from the Dutch gas bubble to invest in renewables.
コメント
Broke down through low volume support levels. Watching the 16-nov level now to see if it finds support there. Interesting long opportunity there.トレード稼働中
Opened a 3% position at $30.83, with my S/L at 1 ATR below my entry.コメント
Little fact: look at the green rectangle.コメント
コメント
I moved my S/L to enty price ($30.83).コメント
Pissibility of a short down-move coming days. I'm not worried: コメント
Trailing my S/L to 3 ATR below yesterdays closing price ($33.05).手動でトレードを終了しました
I don't like this move down. Earnings were very low, and sentiment is turning bearish. Sold at $34.50.免責事項
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