GBPJPY Slide Show

アップデート済

This would be the next slide of the GBPJPY Journey which started with a simple Mind posted, evolving into the next idea with the next steps. The previous 2 snapshots provided a very clear bias (the short followed by the long), but now I find myself in the situation where I am looking for 2 potential scenarios which I would consider to be intriguing if the price ever reaches these zones.

First setup of interest would be if the price encounters some resistance, at or above the white, or in the darker blue, followed by a drop towards the cyan. This level right here would be of interest for me and I would take a long closer look at the price action and any potential hints that the bulls might be ready to get in it and push it again higher.

The Mother of all scary scenarios as I see it, is if the price reaches the Big Red (with blue) Arc lurking above. This zone would be of a Bigger Potential Impact on the market if my estimations are closer to being accurate. Could this be a BOJ intervention zone? Maybe. So I don't know if patience would be required in this area where things can go very volatile and crazy really fast, but let's take it step by step and see if we even reach that area.

All rectangles are projected potential support/resistance or influence zones where interesting price action might occur or even reversals if not consolidations and breaks.

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Hit and run on the circle icon. The price action at the edges of the white rectangle suggests that the concept was potentially relevant. Looking forward to see similar signs or validations at other element(s) in the project.

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Slide from the grey circle icon and into the zone of interest with the cyan rectangle. This candlestick right here might not be the lowest low of the slide bearish wave, but I am still very interested in this zone and the potential reversal that might occur here with a potential incursion towards the green (new added zone) if not anything else above. Some trading hours left for today, but the picture might become clearer on Monday or even Tuesday if this bigger rectangle zone holds and makes the market consolidate in this area.

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The cyan rectangle zone worked...

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The blue rectangle has been avoided, even though the price consolidated right underneath it. Asking myself now if the same will happen to the big arc lurking above which could be avoided as well. Another scenario would be for the potential rebound from it to not be as powerful as it could have been in the center of it, with a rebound below followed by a pursue for higher ground still. Things are still uncertain as of now, but I just can't grasp any solid bearish scenario from the looks of it.

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Don't know if this rebound from the cyan counts, as many markets moved a lot because of reports in the media and fears of escalation in the Middle East. Things seemed to be deescalated afterwards, and the markets got back to their initial sentiment and mood.

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Cyan rectangle zone left its mark with the 3rd rebound from this area. We could see another 100 pips above, of which scenario I am not entirely convinced and confident of, but on the longer medium term horizon, I would rather see a correction towards the 191.6~ level rather than bold higher highs where the longer purple at 195.5 stands...

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One level to look out for from my perspective is the 194 where resistance can be met. Any signs of a reversal near it might lead to a broader bearish wave depending on the circumstances.

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Red Zone reached. Will the concept prove to be valid with bearish tones to follow? I don't know. I wouldn't short right now in this position.

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My suspicion about a potential intervention (initial idea) was not completely wrong, but the timing and price estimation seems to have been off. Nevertheless the project surprises with 2 small coincidences. The arc acting as resistance, then support with a potential retest.

Don't know what the waters of the future hold for this market as the participants don't seem much bothered by the BOJ doings.

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Is the BOJ back in it? Potential relevant zones for the future. Might incorporate some of this in a next idea.

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Approaching the end for this project, just waiting to see how these 2 green level lines mentioned earlier turn out to be for the price. If there is a climb towards 194-195, there could be a case for the bears coming back in it, if there are signs of bull weakness or even potential reversal setups or signs, with a potential prospect for even lower lows.

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Not sure if the BOJ will intervene again and at what level, but we end this project with a simple idea: if this long purple plank holds as resistance level, we could see this going for 192.8~