GBP/JPY - 25/08/2019
TECHNICALS:
Weekly: Overall there has been a lot of bullish movement. However, the weekly zone of support has been tapped and price has bounced off the area (~126.500) to go up.
Daily: On the daily, if we take a fib from the 133.000 area to the low at 126.500, we can see that price has retraced, tapped the 61.8 fib level and pivoted to go bearish again. This calls for a long term target of 125.000 as the first target. However, I cannot be sure as to if we can class the fib as a valid one, as the 133.000 area may not be classed as a 'high'.
4HR: We can see a bullish channel being created, with an obvious trendline. There are higher highs and higher lows as you can see. The last 4hr candlesticks made showed price bouncing off the ascending trendline. This could mean that the trendline is still valid and there could be a further push up. I have also marked up a fib retracement for the last low to the last high (this is the fib that is extended furhter right), and you can see that price retraced to the 78.6 level which was at the trendline, and started to reverse at that point. This calls for a short term target of 131.000.
FUNDAMENTALS:
GBP:
- NONE
JPY:
- NONE
However, we have to remind ourselves of Trump and his tweets, also the trade war.
Trump's tweets also included:
- "Big Trade Deal just agreed to with Prime Minister Abe of Japan. Will be great for our Farmers, Ranchers and more. Really big Corn purchase!" - possible stronger JPY, and therefore GBP/JPY falling?
- The goods and products from China will have a 5% increase in tax - possible fall of JPY, and therefore rise of GBP/JPY?
ALL:
- Monday - G7 Meetings
We have to remember to let the trade play out and not take a trade straight away before the market opens. Pairs may gap, and it is not wise to take trades without properly planning for it. What I will do is see how the market opens for this pair, and how it reacts to the 4hr support/resistance green box, and the ascending TL and when the time is right, if it is right, I will take a trade.
Weekly: Overall there has been a lot of bullish movement. However, the weekly zone of support has been tapped and price has bounced off the area (~126.500) to go up.
Daily: On the daily, if we take a fib from the 133.000 area to the low at 126.500, we can see that price has retraced, tapped the 61.8 fib level and pivoted to go bearish again. This calls for a long term target of 125.000 as the first target. However, I cannot be sure as to if we can class the fib as a valid one, as the 133.000 area may not be classed as a 'high'.
4HR: We can see a bullish channel being created, with an obvious trendline. There are higher highs and higher lows as you can see. The last 4hr candlesticks made showed price bouncing off the ascending trendline. This could mean that the trendline is still valid and there could be a further push up. I have also marked up a fib retracement for the last low to the last high (this is the fib that is extended furhter right), and you can see that price retraced to the 78.6 level which was at the trendline, and started to reverse at that point. This calls for a short term target of 131.000.
FUNDAMENTALS:
GBP:
- NONE
JPY:
- NONE
However, we have to remind ourselves of Trump and his tweets, also the trade war.
Trump's tweets also included:
- "Big Trade Deal just agreed to with Prime Minister Abe of Japan. Will be great for our Farmers, Ranchers and more. Really big Corn purchase!" - possible stronger JPY, and therefore GBP/JPY falling?
- The goods and products from China will have a 5% increase in tax - possible fall of JPY, and therefore rise of GBP/JPY?
ALL:
- Monday - G7 Meetings
We have to remember to let the trade play out and not take a trade straight away before the market opens. Pairs may gap, and it is not wise to take trades without properly planning for it. What I will do is see how the market opens for this pair, and how it reacts to the 4hr support/resistance green box, and the ascending TL and when the time is right, if it is right, I will take a trade.
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