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How to trade carry-over values in curved trends - GBP/U, 1D
アップデート済
Recently I've been analyzing GBPUSD at the 1D time frame, and I believe we might be in a good spot for a 2-3 week trade moving up - and possibly making a new daily high. But beyond that, I think there might be a curved trend playing out, so I'd like to go over how to analyze such a trend using the world's only counting framework that actually works (sorry, Elliott wave...).
But what on earth are 'curved trends' you ask? Good question. The TA community knows nothing about them. But if you begin counting price movement and really analyze what values markets shift direction at, you'll begin to see some clear facts come into view.
Fact 1: When new trends begin to form, the values used for directional shifts are set near the start of the trend/sequence.
Fact 2: A simple count covering the first 'push' ("impulse") and first 'pull' (Fractured Counter-Trend or FCT) is sufficient to produce A) a components list, B) a total and multiples list, C) a 'sum table', and D) two 'dyad' tables.
Fact 3: 'Component' values are used to count fluctuations within the larger trend. The trend will then turn, or if curved, temporarily shift direction, using the component total, a multiple of the total, a sum table or dyad value, or a combination of these.
Counting movement is a cumbersome task so we'll be using a couple of tools to help us out. ELB is our 'event locator.' This will mark all countable events on the chart (these are the multi-colored triangles you see). We'll use SANDTIGER ('ST') to count and label those events and help us manipulate the count. ST will also let us know what the significant values are for the sequence we're counting. Since I failed to label chart locations in my normal 'A-Z' manner, I'll be using ST number tags (running from '-5' to '30' at the high, then '43' on the pullback low) for reference. Keep in mind that since ST front-loads all count adjustments, counts to the right of the final adjustment will be the only accurate values in the line. Since we added 2 events after point '32', only 33 to 45 will be accurate.
We have to have the ability to add and skip events because ELB sometimes misses events near DMC's (red tipped candles) and because some count processes naturally skip the terminals of Fractured Counter-Trends (or FCT's) - and segment terminals.
Since there are 10 events between -5 and 5, our 'prime set' is 10/8. The '8' comes from skipping the FCT terminals. These two numbers yield all the other values listed in the ST label and the red callout at point 5 (which is a copy of the ST label). Notice that our components list for this prime set is 8, 4, 2. These values come from extending and filtering the prime set of odd digits. We have a component total of 14 with a 'multiples' table below it. Below that, our 'sum table' comes from adding 10+8 then spacing that by 10 up and down the number line. Dyads are values calculated using the prime set and the push1 value, which in this case equals 2.
The first thing to notice in this daily GBPUSD trend is that the directional shift that occurred at the Dec. 28 high completed two iterations of the component count. The last countable event prior to the high, point 28, also lined up with a sum table value...
Main segments will not always turn on a special value, sometimes they run all the way to over the curve to a 'carry-over' special value at the end of the curve. To continue counting over the curvature, all we have to do is skip the segment terminal, which in this case is point 30.
The move down from 30 also completes another component iteration (2, 4, 8 count - teal callouts)... At point 42 we see volatility pick up, hit, and seemingly turn at the trend line. I realize this line doesn't have much validation as far as previous hits, but TL's based on FCT terminals are a Magenta mainstay and often prove to be very accurate. With this one you can see that the anchor is at the lower terminal at point 13.
So the combination of the first shift happening at a multiple, the move down hitting the next multiple in the list, the volatility at that point, and the trend line hit, seem to suggest the ending of this curvature. And now we have 3 white candles VS one gray...
Well need more upward action before confirming that this is a curved trend, but if it is... What happens after trends curve? Typically some sort of 'partial cycle' (or PC) plays out. In Magenta, 'partial cycles' come in either X or X/X form and consist of the values 2, 4, and 6. So let's imagine a 6-count playing out from point 43... the PC will essentially form a new segment so we have to skip another seg term at point 43. This would push point 43 up to where 44 is currently. Our six count would then end at point 48. Forty-eight is a sum table value and a dyad. So this seems likely and it will probably result in a new daily high for the sequence.
Personally, I've already entered at .42 lots from 1.26196 with a stop at 1.25700. If we hit a new high (I'm thinking in around 2-3 weeks) I'll see a profit of $800-$900. If we see any decent upward movement by the half of next week I'll tighten my stop.
The current thinking on 'trends' and what constitutes a trend is too rigid. The fact that carry over segments are turning on the same values defined at the start of the trend, means that the trend is continuing through the curve.
The great thing about trading curved trends is that if you miss the turn that happens in the main segment, you can still trade the 'carry-over' move. This means more opportunity to trade, not just in straight lines, but also in the curve...
But what on earth are 'curved trends' you ask? Good question. The TA community knows nothing about them. But if you begin counting price movement and really analyze what values markets shift direction at, you'll begin to see some clear facts come into view.
Fact 1: When new trends begin to form, the values used for directional shifts are set near the start of the trend/sequence.
Fact 2: A simple count covering the first 'push' ("impulse") and first 'pull' (Fractured Counter-Trend or FCT) is sufficient to produce A) a components list, B) a total and multiples list, C) a 'sum table', and D) two 'dyad' tables.
Fact 3: 'Component' values are used to count fluctuations within the larger trend. The trend will then turn, or if curved, temporarily shift direction, using the component total, a multiple of the total, a sum table or dyad value, or a combination of these.
Counting movement is a cumbersome task so we'll be using a couple of tools to help us out. ELB is our 'event locator.' This will mark all countable events on the chart (these are the multi-colored triangles you see). We'll use SANDTIGER ('ST') to count and label those events and help us manipulate the count. ST will also let us know what the significant values are for the sequence we're counting. Since I failed to label chart locations in my normal 'A-Z' manner, I'll be using ST number tags (running from '-5' to '30' at the high, then '43' on the pullback low) for reference. Keep in mind that since ST front-loads all count adjustments, counts to the right of the final adjustment will be the only accurate values in the line. Since we added 2 events after point '32', only 33 to 45 will be accurate.
We have to have the ability to add and skip events because ELB sometimes misses events near DMC's (red tipped candles) and because some count processes naturally skip the terminals of Fractured Counter-Trends (or FCT's) - and segment terminals.
Since there are 10 events between -5 and 5, our 'prime set' is 10/8. The '8' comes from skipping the FCT terminals. These two numbers yield all the other values listed in the ST label and the red callout at point 5 (which is a copy of the ST label). Notice that our components list for this prime set is 8, 4, 2. These values come from extending and filtering the prime set of odd digits. We have a component total of 14 with a 'multiples' table below it. Below that, our 'sum table' comes from adding 10+8 then spacing that by 10 up and down the number line. Dyads are values calculated using the prime set and the push1 value, which in this case equals 2.
The first thing to notice in this daily GBPUSD trend is that the directional shift that occurred at the Dec. 28 high completed two iterations of the component count. The last countable event prior to the high, point 28, also lined up with a sum table value...
Main segments will not always turn on a special value, sometimes they run all the way to over the curve to a 'carry-over' special value at the end of the curve. To continue counting over the curvature, all we have to do is skip the segment terminal, which in this case is point 30.
The move down from 30 also completes another component iteration (2, 4, 8 count - teal callouts)... At point 42 we see volatility pick up, hit, and seemingly turn at the trend line. I realize this line doesn't have much validation as far as previous hits, but TL's based on FCT terminals are a Magenta mainstay and often prove to be very accurate. With this one you can see that the anchor is at the lower terminal at point 13.
So the combination of the first shift happening at a multiple, the move down hitting the next multiple in the list, the volatility at that point, and the trend line hit, seem to suggest the ending of this curvature. And now we have 3 white candles VS one gray...
Well need more upward action before confirming that this is a curved trend, but if it is... What happens after trends curve? Typically some sort of 'partial cycle' (or PC) plays out. In Magenta, 'partial cycles' come in either X or X/X form and consist of the values 2, 4, and 6. So let's imagine a 6-count playing out from point 43... the PC will essentially form a new segment so we have to skip another seg term at point 43. This would push point 43 up to where 44 is currently. Our six count would then end at point 48. Forty-eight is a sum table value and a dyad. So this seems likely and it will probably result in a new daily high for the sequence.
Personally, I've already entered at .42 lots from 1.26196 with a stop at 1.25700. If we hit a new high (I'm thinking in around 2-3 weeks) I'll see a profit of $800-$900. If we see any decent upward movement by the half of next week I'll tighten my stop.
The current thinking on 'trends' and what constitutes a trend is too rigid. The fact that carry over segments are turning on the same values defined at the start of the trend, means that the trend is continuing through the curve.
The great thing about trading curved trends is that if you miss the turn that happens in the main segment, you can still trade the 'carry-over' move. This means more opportunity to trade, not just in straight lines, but also in the curve...
手動でトレードを終了しました
Exited yesterday by moving my stop up above my entry. This was just an hour or so before the very swift move down in the 4H. I think we lost about 80 pips in a matter of seconds... I had realized that morning that my entry wasn't low enough at the 1D time frame. Broke even.But looking at this move in 1D it might be mid-marking the 6-count (at 4) with volatility. Mid-marking is a common behavior and volatility is one means to do it. Might be wrong, maybe we'll breach 1.25184 after all, but I'll be watching the 4H as this appears to be a pullback to a trend line and might be another good long setup...
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