Gold relative to S&P500 - the best macro timing for gold

2023年2月5日

The SPX/GOLD ratio is one of the best long term indicators on when Gold/Silver are a good investment vrs the S&P500. It turns out the only worthwhile to buy gold was when this ratio hit the top trend. This has also marked the lost decades when the S&P500 virtually made no gains. And to the opposite the bottom of the channel has indicated a good time to buy the S&P500 and to sell gold. There was one "fake out" from 1974 when the ratio hit the bottom channel only to break down lower, this did still call the bottom in the S&P500 but gold did outperform.

The SPX/GOLD ratio his its bottom and has been trending up since 2011 so we should expect the S&P500 bull market to continue based on this and Gold to under-perform leaning towards it chopping sideways or even going down. I have also marked the general time these cycles ran which are relatively consistent. Based on this we could expect the S&P500 to outperform gold until the early 2030s.

SPX/GOLD = Orange
Gold = Tan
S&P500 = Blue