Don't short the Market Yet
アップデート済
Next Target:
17100-17500 by mid to late Jan 2024 (most bullish case, green arrow). Latest this will hit is end of Feb. 2024.
After this hits, next approximate target will be 17900-18000.
The ultimate test here is to form a top under 20629 (if that level never hits, which it won't, this will be the 13-year bull market finale). You can expect significant downside to begin around April 2024 - too early to say if the structure will give us a crash but its possible in mid-2024.
Explaination:
Nasdaq is currently trying to get above the supply zone formed from the high back in Jan 2022. We're going to see a similar outcome as a couple weeks back when it was trying to get over the supply zone formed in July 2023 - a lot of shorts will enter thinking its a double top, end of santa clause rally (or whatever dumb thing they want to call it)... And it will inevitably break above and continue higher for the following reasons:
- The dashed purple and green down sloping line is the breakout where demand exceeds supply, and we just broke above that. Now it will consolidate until if breaks above the dashed purple right above it (follow the 1pt green trajectory for expected price action). ** As soon as it breaks above that it will continue higher
- The steeper, increasing dashed purple lines are the buying pressure (this is a trend angle), the decreasing dashed lines parallel to the green and purple are the selling pressure (also a trend angle). Price tends toward intersections between these 2 trend angles to achieve equilibrium. There is confluence with the next equilibrium point and my horizontal line targets.. both are proprietary calculations you won't see this anywhere else.
17100-17500 by mid to late Jan 2024 (most bullish case, green arrow). Latest this will hit is end of Feb. 2024.
After this hits, next approximate target will be 17900-18000.
The ultimate test here is to form a top under 20629 (if that level never hits, which it won't, this will be the 13-year bull market finale). You can expect significant downside to begin around April 2024 - too early to say if the structure will give us a crash but its possible in mid-2024.
Explaination:
Nasdaq is currently trying to get above the supply zone formed from the high back in Jan 2022. We're going to see a similar outcome as a couple weeks back when it was trying to get over the supply zone formed in July 2023 - a lot of shorts will enter thinking its a double top, end of santa clause rally (or whatever dumb thing they want to call it)... And it will inevitably break above and continue higher for the following reasons:
- The dashed purple and green down sloping line is the breakout where demand exceeds supply, and we just broke above that. Now it will consolidate until if breaks above the dashed purple right above it (follow the 1pt green trajectory for expected price action). ** As soon as it breaks above that it will continue higher
- The steeper, increasing dashed purple lines are the buying pressure (this is a trend angle), the decreasing dashed lines parallel to the green and purple are the selling pressure (also a trend angle). Price tends toward intersections between these 2 trend angles to achieve equilibrium. There is confluence with the next equilibrium point and my horizontal line targets.. both are proprietary calculations you won't see this anywhere else.
ノート
Expecting 1 of 2 scenarios to play out over next couple weeks:Scenario 1: small pullback to around 16400 (dashed purple line on chart - rising support) by 1/26/2024, then continue to new highs (17200+) by early March 2024
Scenario 2: slightly deeper pullback to around 16000 (light red trendline on chart) by 2/1/2024, then continue to new highs (17500+) by mid March 2024
ノート
Breaking out of re-accumulation on 1/24 - this still has legs:- target range by 2/1/2024 = 17634-17803 (+1.5% upside from current level: 17544)
- max upside by 2/1/2024 = 18000-18075 (+3% upside)
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