Natco Pharma, the road ahead?
Its been a journey of parallel channels for Natco Pharma share price and one believes that it will continue to tread within the broad confines of the longer term monthly channel
Price has now found the resistance area of the channel which started from the lows of the covid (in blue). However, with the earnings on lenalidomide still some 15-18 months away from reaching peak levels, atleast in volume terms, by that time the street should hear expected positive news on some of the points listed below:
- new successful para IV filings and launches from existing tentative or final approved list,
- fixing the usfda cloud over kothur formulations plant,
- traction on the much anticipated brownfield acquisition,
- their CAR T investment growing into something tangible in value terms,
- substantial increase in foreign subsidiary business
- domestic formulation sales getting boost due to possible semalglutide launch
- scaling up of crop health science business
therefore looking at the hanging man on WCB I believe that whether for profit booking or geo political or general broader market sentiment it can correct in the immediate shorter term, however, the bullish thesis remains for the fundamental reasons enumerated above.. The first target from here seems to be around 2500 which can be plotted either by box breakout (from 2017 highs) or a rounding bottom (from 2021 highs) or simply the width of the blue parallel channel if and when it breaks out...
The principle of polarity suggests that price may not close below the line plotted by taking the highs of 2017 and 2021 (the pink dotted line) this area should be our longer term stop loss and a time to revisit the bullish thesis.
Price has now found the resistance area of the channel which started from the lows of the covid (in blue). However, with the earnings on lenalidomide still some 15-18 months away from reaching peak levels, atleast in volume terms, by that time the street should hear expected positive news on some of the points listed below:
- new successful para IV filings and launches from existing tentative or final approved list,
- fixing the usfda cloud over kothur formulations plant,
- traction on the much anticipated brownfield acquisition,
- their CAR T investment growing into something tangible in value terms,
- substantial increase in foreign subsidiary business
- domestic formulation sales getting boost due to possible semalglutide launch
- scaling up of crop health science business
therefore looking at the hanging man on WCB I believe that whether for profit booking or geo political or general broader market sentiment it can correct in the immediate shorter term, however, the bullish thesis remains for the fundamental reasons enumerated above.. The first target from here seems to be around 2500 which can be plotted either by box breakout (from 2017 highs) or a rounding bottom (from 2021 highs) or simply the width of the blue parallel channel if and when it breaks out...
The principle of polarity suggests that price may not close below the line plotted by taking the highs of 2017 and 2021 (the pink dotted line) this area should be our longer term stop loss and a time to revisit the bullish thesis.
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