EW analysis natural gas - Two more lows and then doubling

2023年2月9日

A little idea how gas could continue in the short to medium term. I think that we are still in a wave 3 down. The current recovery from the lows would be wave 4 of that 3rd wave one degree lower. After the end of this 4th wave at 2.66 or max 2.86 wave 5 will see new lows. After that wave 4 of the intermediate degree would lead to almost a doubling to around 4 USD.

2023年2月13日

ノート

I want to post a short update for the gas analysis.

Today's price action hints to the possibility, that wave 4 indeed ended an february 08 (see Armenco's comment). Due to the steep wave 2 and the ensuing steep correction I would still prefer a more complex correction.

At the moment my favorite count would be a triangle wave 4 that allows for an extended accumulation phase to prepare for a future doubling of gas prices.

Another hint, that the correction could carry on, is the fact that we see a divergence in the OBV indicator.

I will keep a close eye on gas.

2023年2月14日

ノート

Due to the strong move to the upside it might be time to consider alternatives. As you can see in the comments section I still favor the above triangle count until the MoB at 2.610 ist not broken.

Should the MoB be broken I would expect an even broader triangular structure to form.



There is only a very, very, very slim possibility that the move to the downside is already finished for this would call for a truncated 5 and a very nasty looking leading diagonal.

The risk-reward potential to the downside is not that great, so I would rather await clear signals, that the downward movement is finished and the wave 4 into the region of 4 USD underway. Never underestimat a complex correction.

2023年2月16日

ノート

NG seems to stick to the plan. We should then soon see another upward leg back into the region 2.6.

2023年2月17日

ノート

As PriceActionHelp indicated in the comments section wave 4 actually developed as an WXY, not a triangle. Wave 4 ergo ended tuesday at 2.623.

Now it is time to calculate targets for the final down move. A reverse fibonacci measurement and the Fibo-Expansiven both indicate a target around 1.96 so here is a cluster. Another target is at 2.11.

As this was most probably accumulation I would expect a swift spring with lower volume.

2023年2月17日

ノート

Another common measurement is wave 5 = wave 1. In this case I think that wave 3 is the extended wave.

Wave 5 = Wave 1 would be at approximately 2.14

2023年2月20日

ノート

It is time to send in the bottom search crew. My guess is that we are not far from a major bottom in NG. Unfortunately I don't have the CoT-Data to verify that.

A target cluster is forming around 2.1 USD.

We should closely watch the behavior of gas in that vicinity.

But a clear warning. Normaly commodities extend in wave 5. I think that in this case wave 3 extended when seen in relationship to wave 1. But still we have to keep this possibility in the back of the head.

2023年2月22日

ノート

Express Update.

Possible Bottom in.

2023年2月22日

ノート

Another short update.

If you were not on board at the bottom I would now wait for a retracement.

Should the upmove be just another correction in the downtrend, then I would expect it to stop at the extreme of the preceding wave 4 and reverse sharply.

Up till now everything looks very impulsive. So I'm quite confident, that the bottom is in.

But I soon expect a reversal in wave 2. This should now be a great opportunity to enter at lower prices.