The net positions of non-commercial traders generally move in the direction of the price action, as is shown by the red and green arrows. What happened recently is that the shorts were wrong about direction but then doubled down and went more net short expecting price to fall even more dramatically. It went up instead and those traders are stuck in the averaged-down red hoping the price comes down. If it continues rising, they'll be forced to cover as some of them have already started doing as evidenced by the upward move in the COT data. Margin calls may force covering as is typical of short squeezes. I'm bullish for day trades only.
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I managed to find a way to screw this up, but at least my trade idea was correct. :/