As the weather is clearly warm... 75 in NYC I believe that is quite frankly priced in. El Nino and 95% probability? also priced in.
I think NG was a little overextended to the downside. Lets face it: yes we have record temperatures, but we are also on multi year lows of the contract. IMHO it wont go to 0, so looking purely at risk reward this was a good deal last week.
And btw, what are the effects of El Nino for Europe? Guess what, it might get colder there during a period of El Nino... I wouldnt rule out any other new export licenses to be given away as the industry is struggling. IMHO the ball is in the park of the bulls at this point, just by the fact that news just cant possibly get any worse for NG......
I think NG was a little overextended to the downside. Lets face it: yes we have record temperatures, but we are also on multi year lows of the contract. IMHO it wont go to 0, so looking purely at risk reward this was a good deal last week.
And btw, what are the effects of El Nino for Europe? Guess what, it might get colder there during a period of El Nino... I wouldnt rule out any other new export licenses to be given away as the industry is struggling. IMHO the ball is in the park of the bulls at this point, just by the fact that news just cant possibly get any worse for NG......