NQ Range (07-01-24)

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Looking for low to up move during short Holiday week or more O/N Prop lifting than usual. The KL to watch is 19,818, a break of the Danger Zone will try some yellow dots. Near KL look for the typical U Turn attempt. YTD Open is the KL 17,027 and we have seen a 3,000 point range with ML 18,500 being a retest KL to anticipate. NAZ is running on fumes and will need some major rigging, tricks, BTD/FOMD PA to stay elevated. Any of those fail to hold and we may see large move sessions on any drop retest of KL's. Go Fed, look for Fed to help out (did you watch the Debate???, Really). Any drop will be propped back up in the O/N.

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NAZ rejected at ML in O/N, may be struggle Monday. Just look for up moves after any heavy volume periods that may push the NAZ lower. Holiday Dead Zone Prop moves will create major whipsaw this week as they try to hold it all together.

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Under the ML is key with Open Drive.

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Good Luck this week, just doubt that we see a huge sell off during 4th of July week. Would not be American. Expect a Rig or two.

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TL needs to hold or lower we go.

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962 is Short under and NAZ will retest a few time. 962 to Orange TL is range to watch.

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960, NAZ may hold up and go sideways during the Dead Zone. If no lift above may drop later. They are trying to get it the O/N with little damage.

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Garbage PA continues, Go Fed.

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Sideways through DZ and into O/N Prop Session Extravaganza. Typical Predictable Holiday Tricks. Any Selling will be followed up with a Prop or Two.

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Monday did see U Turn near KL 818, should that not hold on retest stay short.

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7/2 Update, not expecting much but sideways to up this week and tomorrow may be narrow. I just find it interesting that the O/N or Dead Zone (trading time zones) consistently rotate counter period PA. The only selling for months has been the 1st 30m or Open Drive, then DZ up or sideways. The next obvious BTD move may be the next head fake (next few). Friday 325 hit/reverse zone may be upper limit for retest and 818, lower. 500 point range to set up the next big move, thinking lower. MAG 7 continue to hold the market up, very crowded and 1-2 big exits form some institutions may create a crack with any stall out near term.

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NAZ continues to struggle with ML

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ML - 20,080 is range for break out or rejection.

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No drop and NAZ should fly up in Dead Zone like a Rocket or Air Balloon, but up. Careful with shorting here.

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An up 1st 15M is bullish, you know the DZ move will be up, then O/N UP. Up, Up, Up. BTD/FOMO Forever.

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NAZ at top of Rig Channel, may drop by close and if not will go through in O/N. Rig Extravaganza, with Fireworks.

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7/3 Update, The week is turning out as expected with typical moves at typical Trading Time Zones such as O/N & Dead Zone. The white arrow is the DZ move yesterday and yellow is Top of Channel. Look for the ML (white dash) to be the lower target of U Turn zone should the NAZ drop (typically during Open Drive, 1st 30M). Enjoy your Holiday and Go Fed.

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Air Pocket developing in O/N, some divergence below. Usually during Holiday trading sessions these will not drop but rocket up and then drop a day or so later. Should the drop happen it will try the ML (20,025).

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Monday drop test U Turn call appears to be the best trade of the week. Rig or 2 was other call, stall out drop is next play for most likely next week.

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Look at the VIX, NAZ going higher until stall out

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Narrow garbage, have great Holiday.

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7/4, Have a great 4th. This week/post has played out like expected. Not looking for much Friday, however should we see No Friday-Monday Long Rig Push (typical) then expect a retest of ML or lower Channel (20,025 & 19,730).

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7/5 Update, The Holiday is over and the range will be Yellow line above to 20,325. The Long Only investment product world is in the drivers seat. The "Sell in May and go Away" is and has been dead for many recent years. BTD/FOMO until October may be the plan.

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300 points up or bust. Friday - Monday Holiday volume is the play to watch. Go Fed.

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7/8 Update, The NAZ will try to get in the channel above, rejection is a drop and most likely not on a Monday.

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Good luck today, O/N has zero strength behind it. This is very unusual and may rocket, stall out and drop. No pop look short for drop test. I am out today so look for some narrow to snail type first move with up tilt.

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Narrow Nothing Doing PA, here come the Dead Zone rally.

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Oh No Mr. Bill, Looks like an M. Dead Zone games, wait for break below and until BTD.

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7/9 Update, The chart below will show the typical/usual lift near EOD and into the O/N lift balloon ride of magic PA. I have been mentioning the use of the O/N for about 2 years and without this Rig Move the NAZ would be 5,000 or more points lower. Watch the Open Drive as we are getting near my KL above (20,806).

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under 760 is a Short

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Run it.

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Just need some push/pull and away we go.

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NAZ is Flat, They are so good at holding/stabilizing this index. Sideways and Up has been the PA for months. No down or Drop, hard to trade half a move.

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7/10 Update, 760 and under Short call yesterday did work out. Only to be redirected at EOD and the O/N stabilizers. Rigged Indeed, this way for 2 years. Go Fed, BTD/FOMO until the Cows come home.

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Careful today in Reg Session with Long or Buying, the O/N volume is extremely lite. Not much in Ticks, looks like failed auctions may be developing on way up that will or may be retested. These can run up and drop in following day or so.

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Need to see some strong wicked push/pull or this will go back up.

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No P/P and Dead Zone Lift, as Usual. Rigged, just another play into Friday-Monday snail lift.

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NAZ running on fumes.

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21,400 Next ?

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7/11 Update, So close to the Friday-Monday Long Only joyride , expect narrow sideways PA into the close and O/N for the Friday lift. If not, Short it for a drop test, any drop test that holds will or may be a Mega Bounce into the Friday-Monday Long Express Rig Train.

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Retest Zones on drop 20,600 - 20,450

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NAZ getting rejected under the Blue MA

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NAZ rejected and may try back in to the box below under 20,600.

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This is the Failed Auction drop test that I was mentioning 2 days ago. Typical PA and may set up a decent Friday - Monday run up. Look for O/N lift play tonight.

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20,480 hit and near U Turn Zone. Just watch the retracement back up half or so.

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Once again, 5-6 days of Prop PA erased in a few hours. BTD/FOMO Forever and play into it every time.

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7/12 update, The O/N does nothing and we may see the Friday-Monday rally as the drop yesterday will have set it up. Every single drop prior for years has been a BTD opportunity, this has been the best all summer, you know they can't resist. Otherwise, the drop continues.

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U Turn as usual, Box Top

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Love it, Dead Zone air balloon lift to High and 170 point final hour drop into O/N Weekend Pump Dump for Monday.

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7/15 Update, Play range of White Arrows until next break out. The U Turn bounce level may be retested but unlikely because that would involve some selling or shorting. It is more important to watch PA at key Trading Time Zones of the day, rather than the news or fundamentals. Open Range is drop, Dead Zone Lift, Final HR is random and O/N is lift. Your bias should be long or short during the appropriate zone pattern.

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Today's PA should be: O/N Pump, Open Drive Dump, Dead Zone Snail lift and Flat Close into the O/N for Tuesday Pre Open (O/N) 2nd Pump attempt.

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No DZ lift and down we go.

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Typical Monday, O/N Lift, O/N drop to lift and now DZ lift to Close and O/N lift into Tuesday.

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Upper target hit and sideways until the Close for next move.

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Arrow is selling pressure near KL Rejection.

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20,600 Double Hit, Get ready for Gumball Rally. No go, stay short.

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NAZ stays stable until the Close or O/N, this will fly up in the O/N. That is what usually is the game. Pump in O/N or DZ, these will stabilize until the next pump job. Just rotate your trades with the anticipated next pump.

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NAZ stays exactly in the middle of the Range. Long in O/N is likely for the next lift or Pump/Dump. The O/N is the BOSS. BTD/FOMO is still active and we have not seen ANY Push/Pull.

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7/16 update, Unless you see push/pull PA during a normally Long Lift Zone, look Long. NAZ will move sideways in a range and then pop out or drop some to only U Turn a huge bounce. NEED to see the Push/Pull.

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Sideways O/R will lead to wide push/pull and the break out.

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640 and under is a short

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NAZ stays in the Bubble Zone.

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NAZ with double hit of bottom Bubble. BTD/Fomo's are lurking.

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Weak push/pull so far, needs to pick up or this will float back in the Close or O/N.

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O/N lift is a perfect drop offset, Notice the level as NAZ is back to low and holding. Usually a big move up will happen near Close or O/N. If not we will go lower.

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Mid Bubble and Bouncing off Bottom. Doubt that the drop will actually happen.

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7/17 Update, O/N is THE BOSS, Freaky accurate with the Bubble Bottom Bust. I was actually looking Long as the O/N usually just Lifts. Now we are at the U-Turn Zone so, BTD/FOMO up during the Dead Zone and then Get Short on the stall out.

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Arrow is range of play, rotation and then break out. Watch your Trading Time Zones and the usually PA moves. Down in Open, Up in DZ, sideways to Close and Up In O/N. This dip will most likely be bought. 20,0025 is next target lower, if not.

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Use the range to set up counter moves. Just funny how all the good price action continues to happen mostly in the overnight with the Futures market and at strange times. Th previous 8 day weak snail lift, looks like a Long Trap set up for the BTD's & FOMO's. Need to see the reaction at Open Range (1st 30M) of Reg Session.

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No Push/Pull and up we go.

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Push/pull is active and sideways now.

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Moving to lower target, not sure we see a bounce or U Turn. Most likely in O/N when volume is lower. Look for a counter stabilizing move at some point. Go Fed, BTD/FOMO.

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600 point drop from yesterday Short under 640 call. Down days are huge, WHEN they Happen! BTD in the O/N, don't worry. Should this break down, it will be the 1st time in 2 years, may be a huge drop if so.

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7/18 Update, The 1,000 Point Range to watch is from 19,800 - 20,800. The next big move will be from the range and the U Turn pass/fail is the next clue.

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This chart is the 7/1 Forecast Post, you will see how the NAZ went from lower Channel to lower channel. A hold here is a U Turn set Up and no hold is a Major Short. Just expect some push/pull and multiple direction changes as the BTD/FOMO's hang on for dear life.

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Today, white lines are KL's to play.

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O/N Pump/Dump or U Turn underway. The Open Drive will tell.

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Pump/Dump to lower KL

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Major Push/Pull, Go Fed to the rescue.

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NAZ in Major U Turn Zone, doubt they let it drop more and way lower we go. May see some Close Pop or O/N Rig Pop PA.

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Close rIg Pop is trying.

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Looks like they will hold up until the O/N so it can be Pump/Dumped again.

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Near or above the low, just go Long and the O/N should do the rest. This is a Danger Zone and the NAZ had had 30 or so U Turns, why stop now. NAZ at 19840 now. 19818 is KL to watch.

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19600 gap fill may happen for U Turn to really get going, not sure we see that though.

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Predictable Cheeeese.

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Watch NAZ will be flat on the by over next 15 minutes.

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840 pooped for 100, now U turn clean out and back up.

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13 days up and 5-6 to erase it. Should NAZ get under DZ we may see a big drop. This just never actually happens.

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7/19 Update, Playing the U Turn & Friday - Monday Long only combo trade. Arrow is range and should NAZ break below the Box Bottom it will need to stay out, otherwise Go Long.

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840 Long was Call yesterday and 900 is KL that needs to hold. Third time NAZ has rotated around KL and needs to head North.

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NDX Chart below from 2022-current and the NAZ broke out in 1/24 (white arrow). NAZ is 170 points higher than NDX, NAZ has not done much since 1/22 and may retest 17,000 prior to next move up. We are at the danger Zone now that will have to hold and is why I am playing the U Turn Friday-Monday boost trade. The boost away from DZ is the idea.

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Back to 840 and popping.

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20,080 is your target and stall out is the Short

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Dead Zone lift should follow.

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Stay with the lift play.

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Sideways, crazy but U Turn is doable. No pop and this is the big dropper.

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The fact that there is very weak Push/Pull and it is a Friday is throwing me off, this may just fake everyone and Tank. Just need to see that actually happen (on a Friday).

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No pop, O/N will pop it up for Monday Rally or Pump/dump.

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Updated SPX Chart from 2020. NAZ & Equity market in general is at 21 months of rally. 1st white line is 21 months and now at 2nd white line. Next usually is the Yellow arrow which will set up the next bounce. This drop (if) should work well with election and year end Santa Rally. The idea would be to drop/pop into 2025 as much as possible. Go Fed.

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Just watch the NAZ at current U Turn zone and results. At some point the markets will have to retest lower in order to test highs or make new highs. The current NAZ price near the Danger Zone is key (based on reaction) and anticipate head fakes and multiple direction changes.

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7/22 Update, Odds are just another U Turn on a Monday. Go Long until Open, watch for Pump/Dump at Open, may see typical drop 1st 30M, then Dead Zone lift into the Close and Monday after hours lift into Tuesday Open. No seeing any Push/Pull to suggest a drop or Short.

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Looking like drop test or start of Pump/Dump

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10-11 direction changes inside the range, NAZ trying the U Turn.

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7/23 Update, NAZ looking Spring Loaded. We have seen this many times before in a U Turn. Just watch the head fake Long if the lift is a no go.

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20,040 and above should blast off, if not get short.

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Here we go, pop or drop

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Dead Zone Lift? Why not or why stop now. Go Fed.

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950 is strong support and KL to watch, BTD/FOMO Next?

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Yep

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Head Fake at 20040, wow we got 2 way PA, watch for push/pull and lower we go. KL 950 now.

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Scalp the range and Dead Zone is lift usually.

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Dead Zone lift is almost guaranteed.

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Go Fed and BTD/FOMO Forever.

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No pop and nothing but direction changes. May drop now.

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NAZ drops in the O/N, that is just not the norm. Riggers will have to work all night to redirect.

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7/24 Update, Interesting development now. 720-820 is base for many long moves, should the NAZ fall under play the KL's below. The range to watch now is the yellow arrow. General rule is that if the NAZ does not get lifted/propped in the O/N it usually does not do well the Reg Session. The flip side is that this is just setting up another U Turn and is the best place to place a Long trade. The Open Drive will tell, this may be a Dump/Pump.

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Notice some of the Mag 7 are giving back, the key is that they have to stay up. The Mag 7 can drop to Mag 2-3 as the Fed will pick up the slack. With that, favor the U Turn Long trade on any significant dip. Go Fed.

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O/N Low to 720 is range unless 1 way train ride lower.

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No Dead Zone today. Mentioned that if NAZ does not get the O/N Rig Pop it usually sells off, like clockwork. Go Fed, help, hurry.

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Update, 1 way runner. You can see the push/pull on the IDS charts from earlier.

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IDS Chart

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Many nibble days up and 1-2 huge lower, typical drop offset. At some point, this will not work. No U Turn and if does retrace back up (next day or so) it will most likely be sold off.

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Where is the Beef? BTD/FOMO, we need the FED.

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SOUTH Side

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NAZ with direct hit on top of channel.

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3 Legs, 1 more and back up or U Turn now.

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7/25 Update, NAZ hit lower target (7/1 drop forecast). Now, a U Turn will start or 1 Leg lower to next Yellow Dot and then back up. The Friday-Monday Long Only (95% of weeks) trade will be next signal. Yesterday was not nasty push/pull but more like an organized drop. These can be sets ups for the Long side. We have had 30 plus Danger Zone U Turns over the past 2.5 years. The NAZ should have been much lower when it was lower. That stabilizing has not changes until we see a violent sell off.

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IDS view, 19,050 - 19,200 is range for next break out. Most likely up by Open for slight Pump/Dump drop test for the Open Range.

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NAZ is just back near previous break out range from May. Go back to May Post's and you will see comments about the Summer Lift "Buy in May". Circle is support and White Arrows are TLX levels. These are reliable turn zones. Notice the upper TLX rejection that sent the NAZ to where it is. Look for the opposite with any lower TLX.
I am still banking on the next U Turn and should that not happen then we finally will see the NAZ retest much lower. Go Fed, O/N Prop, BTD and FOMO's

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Valley's in the Red Zones is usually an upward day to follow, lets see. May retest.

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U Turn as long as it stays above two Valley's

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Go Fed, BTD & FOMO Trade

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19,200 is rejecting and this is a NTZ until break out. Sideways with direction changes and then the big move. No Trade Zone.

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TLX Bounce or Bust out

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Looking like a bust, I am Flat.

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TLX delayed bounce, I am still Flat. I would not be surprised if the Friday-Monday Long trade does not play out and NAZ is back at 20,000

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Back near NTZ, n break out in either direction from NTZ is Bullish. NAZ may tory to get to get to O/N easy Long zone and get propped up for Friday-Monday Long express rig pop. Need to watch for typical tricks, the ones that lifted the NAZ to begin with.

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Super high negative TICKS, sell off or quick drop to pop.

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The lift and then drop is a drop offset, used to stabilize then NAZ. Now the O/N will lift or go sideways until the Friday-Monday Long Prop Job. Should this not happen, we are goin way way lower. Danger Zone Will Rodgers time.

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7/26 Update, Like clockwork and reliable, O/N with 200 point lift prior to Open Drive. NAZ is showing typical U Turn signs and since it is Friday, you may look Long.

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Still staying with the Arrow Range.

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Today will need to be a Go Fed, BTD/FOMO, Magic Dead Zone lift type of day for the Long side to really lift up to create some drop offset cushion. O/N up, Open Drive lower, Dead Zone up and Close is Up on Friday's usually. Just look for this pattern and should we see strong Push/Pull, look SHORT. We may see strong Dead Zone failed auction's type strange rally. They will really need to get the NAZ away from this Danger Zone edge.

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I posted this chart on 7/19, the idea would be to use for lower drop test. This may be after the next pop stall out or we just keep going lower. Anyway, a drop may drop with no retracement once the O/N stops fake lifting the NAZ back up. For now the O/N lift is working and my feeling is that it will break done at some point prior to year end.

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Typical pattern is holding true, looking for DZ Rally next or drop we go.

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Still going with U Turn in the DZ, have a great weekend. Go Fed.

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This is how they do, when smart money is not looking or leaves early (Friday afternoon) or is asleep in the O/N (overnight).

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NAZ will need to break out of current 11 day down channel. May happen after 13 days.

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NAZ is at 50% retracement of YTD run up.

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This chart will show the weak Monday start and Holiday Long trap set up that set up the trap (short). These are usually done on low volume, long week end or holiday type reg sessions. Usually the exit starts after the trap is full.

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Go Fed, BTD & FOMO it back up for round 2.

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July 2 is yellow line with drop target and white is drop offset (head fake, trap). The NAZ lifted and the dropped to lower target (yellow dot). The lift is a fake drop offset only to lessen the net drop and keep the NAZ elevated. This type of game will breakdown at some point, need to see violent push/pull in all sessions. No P/P, Go Long.

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7/29 Update, Let the Monday 2nd half of the Friday/Monday long trade play out. O/N once again with Pump up and the U Turn set is looking normal. BTD/FOMO with O/N Rig Set up.

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With Fed Day on Wednesday, we may see a lift up prior to act as Drop Offset to a down Fed Day. No Drop on Fed Day, then Back to ATH to offset the October/Nov drop test. Still going with U Turn (away from Danger Zone) #36 (in a row)

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Today, the typical pattern is set. O/N Up and look for potential Open Range Drop to a Dead Zone Lift into the Close and more O/N Lift into Tuesday. Should the O/R not drop, do not fight it and let it run. This is how a U Turn will play out. The only risk is that if the O/R drops hard and breaks out of the sideways range of 19,200-19,000

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No Pump/Dump, stay Long

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Typical PA, should fly up in DZ

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NAZ getting back up and Top Channel. Only Problem with the DZ Lift.

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Any and I mean any hold will retest upper Top Channel. PA is Price Action

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Lower target hit and lift in the DZ or drop out of Danger Zone.

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They just will do anything bet let it drop.

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Update, Lift is Dead Zone is 99.9% guaranteed.

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NAZ stuck in the channel, get ready for O/N Lift Magic Dreams in the middle of the night. No Lift, Go with the Nightmare.

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7/30 Update, Get ready for the Pop and this will be the Drop Offset should Fed Day produce a drop. NAZ will just not go down and if it does, it will take or create too much damage. They will pull all tricks to keep it way from the Danger Zone under 19,100.

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IDS of yesterday Reg Session to current.

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Just get the feeling we see a huge rally prior to Fed Decision. Long only investment product world has basically one play "Long Only". The days of Hedge Fund, Shorting or Trading 2 Way PA just does not exist that much anymore. BTD/FOMO all day, you can feel it.

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NAZ has not moved or produced any Ticks in past 2 Hours, something is getting ready to move and most likely up big. Either that the the exact opposite, sorry I can't tell which clearly.

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Notice Thin Red Zone at 7:30

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Yesterday call of 19,100-200 Break Out. White arrow at 19,100 was retest and white arrow at 19,200 was retest #2 and now we may see Yellow arrow move. Most likely in Dead Zone.

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Slow boring PA in O/R is usually pre move up.

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PB's seem managed and may be additional seller accumulation for buy side.
9am is Key

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Long above 19,200 no pop and NAZ may drop big. Still going with U Turn play

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Final clean out or bust

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Should be upward in DZ. 19,200 is KL to watch.

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Hanging and DB

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Do not follow, adding Long at 19,000 and above. Stop at 18,950

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Only hope is a drop retest and now pop up.

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Stop at 18900 and that is it. Mentioned not to follow and Scalped the add at 19,000 Like the push/pull here and NAZ may start to show some power in either direction. This will most likely set up a huge Fed Day Rally.

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You can see NAZ is in Upper Half of Channel, needs to stay.

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Looking like lower end clean out and may pop after all stops are cleaned out.

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18850 stop and adding Long at 19,910

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Great Push/Pull day, good to finally see. We should see some serious swings in next few days.

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Adding 3rd Long at 18,900, Do Not Follow.

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Stops are off.

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Adding 4th at 18,845

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Rock the CASHBOX. NAZ is not going anywhere lower, get real. Holding 4 Long and will place stop at Break Even. To O/N for Magic Lift into the Night.

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Waiting on O/N lift machine to kick in. we shall see.

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Dropping 3rd and 4th add from 18,900 and 18,045 at 19,075. O/N Lift Machine. 2 on and will let run with Go Fed Day Mega Rally (until stall out).

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Closing Longs 1 & 2 at 19,210 and NAZ back the original KL.

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

Closing this post and I do not trade on Fed Day. Good Luck and I will start a new Post for August.

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O/N PA Run up, may retest some and just watch for a pump/dump at open since push/pull did show up yesterday. Remember, the Overnight is 100% fake and is used to offset drops, set up next moves and generally stabilize the markets.

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Channel Break Out, if you are looking Long. NAZ did U Turn inside the two yellow Drop zone circles. Just may retest and any failed retest will move much lower but I doubt that.

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Bloomberg show was just talking about how the NAZ turned around from the Close yesterday. The thing is that the O/N redirect or Lift play has been going on for 2.5 years and is a reliable as the Long play in the Dead Zone. Only when these 2 Rigged plays stop working is when the markets will drop and retest much lower. Fed day today may be a surprise curveball lower as most are expecting typical rocket rally. It was good to see the push/pull PA yesterday and that reminds me of how things use to be.

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2,000 point range is White Arrow and what to look for in August. NAZ will most likely move back up into mid zone and then watch the move. Toady will be direction changes in current narrow zone. That move out will be 1st key and most likely a head fake.

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295 is KL to watch, Go Fed, BTD FOMO Forever, AI, Daily Options Expirations, Leverage, etc. Just close the Reg Session and let the Overnight run the show. The O/N is THE BOSS.

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All Pre Market O/N PA, prior 4HR candle is bullish or neutral.

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Technically, we have an outside day reversal to upside, needs to hold and may be one hell of a U Turn.

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No Pump/dump and up we go. Everyone is just confused, this is by design.

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NAZ moves 500 points in O/N and nothing in Open, really. Close the Reg Session and let us just play the 1 way O/N Session. 19,525 is next hurdle should the Reg Sessions get some strength.

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Looking like stall out but that means nothing when the Rig is on.

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NAZ rejected at FIB Level, may drop with no pass.

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U Turn is too easy, may see direction change. Unlikely until Fed Decision.

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NAZ has moved exactly 300 points up from KL 19200 and dropped 300 from KL 19100. Even moves and is still in a range. Watch the wide wiggle at 1-2pm.This is why I do not trade on Fed Day. The easy O/N PA is the only reason we are here and that will break down at some point or NEVER. The O/N is THE BOSS.

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Major Divergence on IDS, Air Pocket is here. Drop will happen today or next few. I have seen upside-down indicators and the NAZ just keep climbing. The drop usually will happen in a few days if it climbs up on fumes. Stay OUT or Gamble the farm.