Week in a Glance: FOMC, OPEC+ Protocols & Risky Assets Problems
The past week turned out to be one of the worst for risky assets in recent years: crypts were falling, sales were going on in the US stock market.
And it was not about the omicron, which, although it provoked new world records of the pandemic (the number of new daily cases of diseases approached the 3 million mark, and a couple of weeks ago only slightly exceeded 1 million), was nevertheless stubbornly ignored by the markets.
The trigger was rather the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC FRS. It followed from the text that the US Central Bank was going to uncover almost all of its anti-inflationary bazookas in 2022: tapering, rate hikes, as well as a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet.
Moreover, judging by the latest data from the Eurozone, annual inflation does not even think that it will decline, but even stop growing, having reached a new historical maximum of 5% in December.
Well, on Friday, an additional reason for sales in the US stock market was provided by data on the labor market NFP came out 2 times worse than expected and even worse than the previous value, showing an increase of less than 200K.
Perhaps the only risky asset that showed growth was oil. But there is a separate story with Kazakhstan. At the same time, we note that OPEC + continues to increase production by 400K b / d every month and in February there will be another increase in oil supply. So we believe that selling not only the stock market and crypto, but oil as well.
The coming week will be interesting primarily for inflation statistics from the US, as well as retail sales in the States. It is quite possible that the week will become a defining one for the cryptocurrency market. A mining recovery in Kazakhstan could bring optimism back to the market and push prices up. But if this does not happen, then the remaining buyers may disappear from the market, and we will see Bitcoin at 30K or lower in the foreseeable future.
Well, the reporting season. Banks traditionally open it.
And it was not about the omicron, which, although it provoked new world records of the pandemic (the number of new daily cases of diseases approached the 3 million mark, and a couple of weeks ago only slightly exceeded 1 million), was nevertheless stubbornly ignored by the markets.
The trigger was rather the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC FRS. It followed from the text that the US Central Bank was going to uncover almost all of its anti-inflationary bazookas in 2022: tapering, rate hikes, as well as a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet.
Moreover, judging by the latest data from the Eurozone, annual inflation does not even think that it will decline, but even stop growing, having reached a new historical maximum of 5% in December.
Well, on Friday, an additional reason for sales in the US stock market was provided by data on the labor market NFP came out 2 times worse than expected and even worse than the previous value, showing an increase of less than 200K.
Perhaps the only risky asset that showed growth was oil. But there is a separate story with Kazakhstan. At the same time, we note that OPEC + continues to increase production by 400K b / d every month and in February there will be another increase in oil supply. So we believe that selling not only the stock market and crypto, but oil as well.
The coming week will be interesting primarily for inflation statistics from the US, as well as retail sales in the States. It is quite possible that the week will become a defining one for the cryptocurrency market. A mining recovery in Kazakhstan could bring optimism back to the market and push prices up. But if this does not happen, then the remaining buyers may disappear from the market, and we will see Bitcoin at 30K or lower in the foreseeable future.
Well, the reporting season. Banks traditionally open it.
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