1929 data, matched on the first major lows (13 november 1929 on 22 march 2020), still a valid guidance.
There were some deviations (please note June also) due to short squeeze + liquidity avalanche not available in 1929.
But will all due differences, human reaction to stressful situation is very much comparable and reflected in the graph.
Recent peaks are different but please note that VIX started to reverse exactly on August 11th.
The market was not selling off SPX but was betting on future uncertainty (VIX) and here we are with a major drop in progress.
Oil, Euro and other indicators have joined the party so this is bear market again.
Taking a look at the graph we see the followings:
1. Drop to 3000 by beginning of October
2. Drop to 2020 March low by February 2021
If the similarity will continue, we will get to a MONSTER LOW of 500 by 2022
"...well...that is just...your opinion man"
There were some deviations (please note June also) due to short squeeze + liquidity avalanche not available in 1929.
But will all due differences, human reaction to stressful situation is very much comparable and reflected in the graph.
Recent peaks are different but please note that VIX started to reverse exactly on August 11th.
The market was not selling off SPX but was betting on future uncertainty (VIX) and here we are with a major drop in progress.
Oil, Euro and other indicators have joined the party so this is bear market again.
Taking a look at the graph we see the followings:
1. Drop to 3000 by beginning of October
2. Drop to 2020 March low by February 2021
If the similarity will continue, we will get to a MONSTER LOW of 500 by 2022
"...well...that is just...your opinion man"
