Expect High SPX Volatility and a Bearish Midterm Trend

2019年9月30日

The trend lines support a down trends below SPX 2000 and as Sven Henrich from Northman Trader pointed out, the SPX has formed a megaphone pattern, otherwise known as a rising wedge. The crossed out area supports small bullish support leading to a price event and high volatility. The long term trend is no doubt bearish, the question is when the price event happens and if the global market is able to continue to instill confidence as global growth is slowing. The event could be a poor jobs report, the federal reserve policy, trade war effects, or the pricing in of political candidates who are anti-wallstreet, Brexit events, or Hong Kong protest escalation. There is a very low chance than none of these happen and even lower that all of these can be occurring during a continued bull market. My determination is that stock buybacks, algos, and perhaps the PPT are all involved in a short term prop up given that many market investors are de-risking in cash, bonds, and bullion and other safe haven assets. We are also seeing this type of de-risking activity from many large companies like Berkshire Hathaway who is holding onto a large cash position of approximately 122 Billion. Given these examples in an already inflated market, it is unlikely that investors will go back into an "all in" position so we should expect a bearish trend the continue in the midterm.