SPX: The noly way is up?!

2016年12月12日

ALL SYSTEMS IN THE GREEN FOR THE MAIN US EQUITY INDEX
- Clear uptrend showing on all time frames;
- Technical picture positive on all time frames;
- Has broken out since the end of the rounding top;
- Looks like it is engaged in a new uptrend.

HOWEVER, LOOKING OVERBOUGHT AT THE CURRENT LEVELS
- RSI >76 on the daily chart;
- Has not taken any rest all of last week;
- Has reached the target from the rounding top breakout in a week;
- Next level up: 2263.81;
- Next levels down: 2233.81 / 2213.35 / 2193.74.

WITH SOME DIVERGENT SIGNS TO BE CLEARED
- All assets are up: Equities, $, oil, treasury yields;
- Correlations currently looking mixed up;
- Equity valuations currently looking quite rich;\
- Volatility stagnating at historical low levels
- Something will have to give --> But what?!

HOW CAN THIS BE RESOLVED
1. Adjustment of fundamentals/earnings to the new "Trump" world;
2. Adjustment of index levels down to match the current fundamentals...

2016年12月12日

ノート

Please mind the typo in the title.
It should read: "SPX: The only way is up?!"

2016年12月14日

ノート

Next level up (2,263.81) has now been breached.
We are in uncharted SPX territory, quite literally.

With the index AND volatility (VIX) up at the same time ahead of the Fed, it's time to consider some defensive options in case the market turns, while keeping exposure to equities...