$SPX BEAR Market Duration

2020年3月30日

Here is my assessment of SPX BEAR market duration, and years of recovery period based on 2008 GFC bear market analysis.

1- BEAR market is not over yet, it has just begun
2- Market/SPX will go further down, as we haven't seen the bottom yet
3- Meanwhile, market goes up and down, so expect a very high volatile market till end of 2020
4- This is not a Buy and Hold market yet. Best to trade it, Buy Low, Sell or short High
5- Covid-19 has crushed consumer demand and it will get worse
6- Commodity oversupply and demand crash makes things worse
7- Many Zombies and high leveraged debt companies like One Web that is $3.3 billion in debt will file chapter 11 bankruptcy
8- You can no longer rely on INDEX SPX to gauge the market. Individual sectors and companies within sectors will flash warning first
9- The ETF index easy buying days is over. Index is a mixed bag of good, bad and ugly.
20- Only strong stocks within all Index will survive and up to 20% of existing companies within the index will be replaced by 2023.
21- Emerging market currency and stock will suffer the most in coming month. Stay away from the lure of "it is cheap'
22- When Covid-19 extreme dust settles, the real pain of low earning, crushed demands will surface
23-The US, EU and rest of global world are in ACTUAL recession that will continue well into 2023
24- Massive FEd, ECB, BOC, BOJ stimulus, and buying sprees will cause the biggest damage for years to come
25- Have a nice day