8-Year Bear Market Starts Today

2014年12月7日

UPDATE 2015-02-09: This bearish prediction has been invalidated. The S&P500 still seems to have some more up-side potential before the real top. I closed my short positions at a profit, and I am now long the SPX500.

=== Prediction ===
Bull-Market Top @ 208.88 on 2014-12-08
Bear-Market Bottom @ 106.50 on 2023-02-01
Go Short @ 208.88, Stop Loss @ 227.43, Profit Target @ 106.50 in 8 years.


=== Description ===
I hope you've made lots of money in the bull market that has been raging since March 2009. Anyone who has been using a trend-following "buy-the-dips" trading strategy is now rich, and everyone (even my Dad!) is talking about how great the stock market is. Well, I have some bad news: this party is about to end. As of today, the SPY will begin a bear market that will last until February 2023, and its price will drop 61.8% to 106.50.

Here is a summary of my thought process (TradingView does not allow me to enter very long descriptions, so I can't go into too much detail. There's a link to my full description at the bottom):

#1 - Perfect Sebelliott "End-of-C" Wave counts on *every* time frame.

#2 - When the market starts to go down, people will worry that the Fed will not be able to maintain its hawkish stance. This causes a positive-feedback selling cycle.

#3 - The Dollar needs to pull back from its recent rally, and since it is currently correlated with the stock market, it will pull the market down too.

#4 - Upcoming bounce in oil will reduce company profits and push stock market down.

#5 - Everyone is Bullish: When my Dad, Wife, and Drinking Buddies all start talking to me about the stock market, and how it keeps going up, up, up... then I know we're getting close a top. When my Dad wants to invest his entire retirement account into GoPro (GPRO), I know we're there. :)


Here is a link to my full, detailed description: likebike.com/trading/20141208_8_year_bear_market_starts_today.html