Straits Times Index (STI) Analysis 26 May 2020; Staying Neutral
Currently staying neutral for STI. It is trading below the range EQ of 2689.97 and has not been able to reclaim this. This is bearish, which means every bounce should be shorted.
However, it is trading above the Order Block (OB) EQ of 2517.52 – hanging by a thread. This is the critical point to look at: whether we reclaim this or lose this at monthly close.
When monthly closes in the next few days it will give us a clearer picture. There are 4 scenarios we need to contemplate:
1) (High Probability) Lose OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential swing short. Take Profit (TP) 1 targeting the EQ of the OB below us at 2318.17.
2) (High Probability) Reclaim OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential scalp long. Take Profit (TP) targeting the range EQ at 2689.97. Do not stay in this trade for too long. 1) Market structure has broken down on the high time-frame, 2) we are trading below range EQ, so this is a counter-trend move. Hop out of the trade if it is getting uncomfortable; don’t be too fixated on hitting the TP.
3) (Low Probability) Monthly close reclaims range EQ of 2689.97 -> Swing long position. TP1 targeting the EQ of the OB above range EQ at 2919.34.
4) (Very, very Low Probability) Monthly close sweeps range low of 1473.77. This is definitely a long term swing long. Doubt it will happen in the near future.
However, it is trading above the Order Block (OB) EQ of 2517.52 – hanging by a thread. This is the critical point to look at: whether we reclaim this or lose this at monthly close.
When monthly closes in the next few days it will give us a clearer picture. There are 4 scenarios we need to contemplate:
1) (High Probability) Lose OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential swing short. Take Profit (TP) 1 targeting the EQ of the OB below us at 2318.17.
2) (High Probability) Reclaim OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential scalp long. Take Profit (TP) targeting the range EQ at 2689.97. Do not stay in this trade for too long. 1) Market structure has broken down on the high time-frame, 2) we are trading below range EQ, so this is a counter-trend move. Hop out of the trade if it is getting uncomfortable; don’t be too fixated on hitting the TP.
3) (Low Probability) Monthly close reclaims range EQ of 2689.97 -> Swing long position. TP1 targeting the EQ of the OB above range EQ at 2919.34.
4) (Very, very Low Probability) Monthly close sweeps range low of 1473.77. This is definitely a long term swing long. Doubt it will happen in the near future.
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