T could see another thrust down

2018年6月2日

I longed T a while ago, but more evidence is now building up that T could see one more thrust downward to the 31.11 level.

1. Bear flag on daily. Not impulsively moving away from the trend line.
2. Failing to break 32.7 resistance area.
3. OBV continuously going downward, showing more selling pressure.

2018年6月2日

ノート

Plan A: T starts to move impulsively downward next week -> short.
Plan B:T broke above resistance line on OBV -> long.

2018年6月4日

ノート

T is not participating in the big rallies on Friday and today. Wonder what it will do when market goes down :p

2018年6月5日

ノート

T continuous to drift upwards, however still below the trend line of the recent recovery. Cannot rule out the possibility of a backtest until it regains it with conviction.

2018年6月6日

ノート

Still kissing the trendline from beneath, however the backtest is about to be over. There is another trendline that you can draw underneath. Short entry should be valid once that one is broken.

2018年6月7日

ノート

Nice breakout from T today. However, it parked right below the gap of 34.35, which also happens to be the 50 day EMA.

Volume is still not convincing, showing possible dumb money rally as smart money exited on the way down. However, CMF shows that money is starting to flow back. If the rally is convincing, we should see a significant gap up from the 50 EMA and rally all the way up to 40 area. However, with SPY close to overbought, it's not impossible that we see a failed breakout and a thrust downward to 31.23 level.

2018年6月7日

ノート

Green trend line touched again before shooting up into the gap. However not out of the woods yet, in case SPY gets a reversal, I would watch further action at the green trend line.

2018年6月12日

ノート

Nice rally in T, rewarding those with strong hands. However a reversal is due due to today's rejection at the key resistance level, as well as the huge drop in AH on the news of Time Warner's merger.

2018年6月12日

ノート

Note: If T gaps down and closes below its 50 day moving average tomorrow, we could see a double bottom at 31 level.

2018年6月13日

ノート

As I commented yesterday, T did gap down its 50 day moving average, and has put in RECORD volume in today. If selling follows through then we would see a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly chart after being rejected from the key resistance level between 34 and 35. Wouldn't be surprised if T takes out previous month low, which would then open a whole new chapter of downside.

2018年6月18日

ノート

Huge thrust down brewing.