Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
ノート
Good startノート
Early stageノート
More pulling back aheadノート
Should start turning upノート
Very good price action following the expected pathノート
I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yieldsノート
It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024ノート
Entertaining to say the leastノート
Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bondsノート
Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this weekノート
JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yieldsノート
Probably quick rally this weekノート
Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawkノート
Should be heading higher into summer June/July. Bessent has massive debt to rollover
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