Trump Expect and detect about China and Jpy

2017年2月21日

In early February, Donald Trump accused China and Japan of currency manipulation. Associated with his campaign promise to brand China a currency manipulator on his first day in office, the market remains deeply worried that Trump could use this as a justification for introducing punitive trade actions against China.

In the next two pages we discover that China does not qualify as a currency manipulator, using the US’ own criteria. In fact, no country in Asia can be justifiably called that. Nonetheless, the fact will not necessarily stop Trump in carrying out protectionist policies.

Economic nationalism is set to rise in the US. It continues to pose a large growth risk to the export-dependent economies in Asia. Thus,

we remain cautious on these currencies. We also look pessimistically at the MYR due to the country’s large and rising external funding need and the sensitivity to the USD strength. Our relatively bearish picks : SGD, KRW, TWD and MYR Our relatively bullish picks: INR and THB

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