The Long Bond has seen a sharp 6.5 point selloff during the past 20 Trading days.
This has turned technicals and trends down, (including our own Trend indicators)- and you can be sure the trend following algos, Hedgies, and CTAs are piling on the shorts here.
Not so fast though for Bond Bears - We are seeing a number of signals that at minimum a over sold rally is due. Lets take a look at the setup.
1 - This 6.5point 20 day sell-off is long in the tooth Statistically speaking. Since 1993, over 6.212 trading days, our Actuarial Tables show us that over a 20 Trading Day Interval, this decline ranks in the 93rd percentile. This doesn't signal a end to the fall, but it does show us this decline is due to expire soon.
2 - On the Terrible jobs print on Friday, a bear trap was set - Running all stops and getting the trend followers short on the breakdown, only to immediately reverse.
3 - The COT report shows that Commercials bought/covered over 50k contracts last week. This scores a 100% on a 18m+5yr basis. So Dealers are on the buy here. One concern here is that historically, Bullish Commercial weekly positioning correlates with <em>negative</em> price action in Bonds- Meaning they have been early when buying big. It must be noted that this is the chink in the proverbial armor of the Bull case.
4 - Similar action was seen in safe haven currencies Gold + Yen.
If one is short bonds, you can't feel very comfortable with this action. As a trader, put yourself in their shoes - you'd want to protect the sizeable gains on short bets over the preceding month.
Expect to see short term trends turn positive and the algos to kick in their trailing stops - This should be good for at least the standard 38-50% Fib retrace which would take us to approx 155, or 3 points higher. Here is a low risk way to play this.
1 - Buy 1 Dec ZB Future at 152 currently
2- Buy a 152 by 150 Put Spread for approx DR of .78 or 25/32. A selloff from 158.3 to 150 or 8.3points within a 40 trading day interval, would put this decline in the 93rd Percentile of all selloffs in that Time Interval going back to 1993.
3 - Sell the 155 Call for 38/64 or .593.
The Net cost of protection down to 150 is therefore .187, while we leave ourselves 3 points upside.
Exit the entire structure on any hourly close below 150. Your R/R here is minimum 3-1.
Please visit our blog for more detailed analysis and Alchymist Charts and Actiarial tables
Good Trading,
3ptCapital
This has turned technicals and trends down, (including our own Trend indicators)- and you can be sure the trend following algos, Hedgies, and CTAs are piling on the shorts here.
Not so fast though for Bond Bears - We are seeing a number of signals that at minimum a over sold rally is due. Lets take a look at the setup.
1 - This 6.5point 20 day sell-off is long in the tooth Statistically speaking. Since 1993, over 6.212 trading days, our Actuarial Tables show us that over a 20 Trading Day Interval, this decline ranks in the 93rd percentile. This doesn't signal a end to the fall, but it does show us this decline is due to expire soon.
2 - On the Terrible jobs print on Friday, a bear trap was set - Running all stops and getting the trend followers short on the breakdown, only to immediately reverse.
3 - The COT report shows that Commercials bought/covered over 50k contracts last week. This scores a 100% on a 18m+5yr basis. So Dealers are on the buy here. One concern here is that historically, Bullish Commercial weekly positioning correlates with <em>negative</em> price action in Bonds- Meaning they have been early when buying big. It must be noted that this is the chink in the proverbial armor of the Bull case.
4 - Similar action was seen in safe haven currencies Gold + Yen.
If one is short bonds, you can't feel very comfortable with this action. As a trader, put yourself in their shoes - you'd want to protect the sizeable gains on short bets over the preceding month.
Expect to see short term trends turn positive and the algos to kick in their trailing stops - This should be good for at least the standard 38-50% Fib retrace which would take us to approx 155, or 3 points higher. Here is a low risk way to play this.
1 - Buy 1 Dec ZB Future at 152 currently
2- Buy a 152 by 150 Put Spread for approx DR of .78 or 25/32. A selloff from 158.3 to 150 or 8.3points within a 40 trading day interval, would put this decline in the 93rd Percentile of all selloffs in that Time Interval going back to 1993.
3 - Sell the 155 Call for 38/64 or .593.
The Net cost of protection down to 150 is therefore .187, while we leave ourselves 3 points upside.
Exit the entire structure on any hourly close below 150. Your R/R here is minimum 3-1.
Please visit our blog for more detailed analysis and Alchymist Charts and Actiarial tables
Good Trading,
3ptCapital