General Market Outlook (Part 2) - May 10th, 2014

2014年5月11日

USD/CAD - Disclosure: Currently holding a long from 1.0830
- Price ignored the 1.0857 level, which was kind of expected considering the lower highs. I was expecting to see lower lows, which is why I entered my long at 1.0830 (first trend line).
- The bounce was mainly driven by data release (bad CAD employment data) so the move up was pretty strong/fast.
- Moving forward, price shouldn't meet any resistance until the mid 1.09XX region and mid 1.10XX region, so those are the short term targets.

USD/JPY - Disclosure: Currently holding multiple longs from the 101.5X region
- Price did puncture the long term upward trend line but closed above it each time it did. So for the time being, I'm fairly confident holding my longs but I do have a tight stop on them (around 101.3X).
- The past two times that price was down at the bottom of the channel, price consolidated for several days before moving up. So if price doesn't move at the beginning of next week then I'll start to question this trade.
- Given that price did not hit the high (104 region) after bouncing off the lows last time (April 11th), I'm not expecting price to go very high this time either. At the most, 103 is the highest target with mid targets around 102 and 102.5.

USD/CHF - Possible Short at 0.8875 | SL: 0.8900 | TP: ?? (Refer to 3rd point below)
- I posted the following comment on my analysis at the beginning of the week: "I'm a bit hesitant on this pair right now, price opened below the trend line last night (gap down) ... So I think I'll pass on this one for now until something concrete develops."
- Based on how price developed, it looks like I made the right move because regardless of going long or short off of the upward blue trend line, I would've been stopped out.
- Moving forward, price has to contend with the downward blue trend line before it can get to the upper red trend line. So this may be a decent place to take a short for a few pips but it's not a great trade, so I won't bother posting a full analysis for it.

Silver (XAG/USD) - Disclosure: Holding physical silver for long term investment purposes
- As far as majors goes, I only watch the other 7 pairs so to fill the 8th spot, I've picked silver but based on my last analysis, it doesn't look like many of you trade silver.
- As posted previously, I personally do not trade silver on paper but I do buy physical silver.
- I'm still waiting for the descending triangle to break out (downwards) so that I can continue stacking silver at cheap prices. This presents a short opportunity for those of you who trade silver on paper (CFD, futures, etc).