USDJPY: Is It About To Fall? Should You SELL?

2018年11月12日

I've been constantly posting on this for the past weeks as a way of teaching a lesson on PATIENCE! I'm not so sure that many of you got the message as I kept getting messages asking me "Can I sell now?" or "What about now?" or "Where can I sell?" All the while I was being bombarded by these questions, prices kept slowly creeping up and up. All the way to where EXACTLY where my latest chart showed it would go. Almost EXACTLY to the pip! It crept right up to the .886 fib level and promptly was rejected and formed a pin bar (4HR chart). Now, for most of you who follow some of the other posters here, the sight of a "pin bar" gets you salivating and to them, it means SELL! NOT TO ME!

A pin bar does not in itself signal a reversal. The pin bar is just one of the signs that a reversal MAY BE COMING! That pin bar must be followed by confirming price action FOLLOWING IT in order to give a proper SELL signal. I think many of you have experienced the PAIN of selling (or buying) on a pin bar just to get your head handed to you on a silver platter! Actually, you are HANDING you head over on a silver platter to the winning traders! Follow a pin bar at your own risk! I think if you will be able to rid yourself of that "dinner bell" and resist the false lure of a pin bar, you'll find yourself to be better off in trading. Don't be one of Pavlov's dogs salivating every time you see a pin bar! You must learn PATIENCE and wait for the "follow through" confirmation!

Ok, so we got a 4HR pin bar now followed by falling prices. What do you see on the Daily chart? Do you see a completed pin bar there yet? I would hope you answered "NO!". Until today's session is done, that is NOT a pin bar on the daily chart and so far, that daily price action does not signal anything bearish! For all we know, by the end of the day, prices may have turned and gone even higher! So sell that 4HR pin bar at your own peril. I know many of you fall prey to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Why? If you see my chart and what I project might happen should USDJPY follow my projections, there is a LONG WAY for it to fall! So what if you do not absolutely get in at the top or very near to it? What are you afraid of missing? A few pips?

PATIENCE and you will be rewarded. There is no need to get in at the very top and no need to get out at the very bottom. Aim for the MEAT of every trade and you will find that you're profits will roll in!

If you want to know more about USDJPY, PM me or look to my signature box below.