SPX | Don't fall for the trap...

アップデート済

SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train.

Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar!

But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves.
Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain.

Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX.
And VIX is as bullish as it gets.

But not all is VIX.
It is important to analyze the volatility of volatility. We are really entering inception levels here.

Volatility is too low and too stable. It is as if it is pressured to make all-time-lows. With such a low VVIX reading, we can conclude that VIX is having no second thought on dropping even further.

Curiously, the VVIX/VIX ratio is a neat SPX tracker.

I have posted about it ages ago.

So what can we conclude about volatility?
Historically, similar volatility traps have lead to severe crashes in the stock market.

Will this time be any different?

So what is in for the future?

Perhaps an all-time high for SPX will come first.

It is not that far...

Then, perhaps some SPX divergence against VVIX/VIX. SPX to move higher with VVIX/VIX moving lower. And then darkness.

Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori

ノート

Why is this period full of massive traps?