Silver during spikes in VIX - buy signal setup now

2015年9月1日

If silver spikes UP when VIX surges, then the silver market tends to peak, but if silver DROPS when VIX surges, it tends to market the BOTTOM for silver.

We have a potential bottom here using this analogue.

I'm not a 200 bar moving average aficionado, but it touched that long term level in this pullback.


You can see that there was Key Accumulation from $12.50-$13.50 in silver because there are 19-20 months at those levels, which is a SUBSTANTIAL amount of time before the launch higher to 50/ounce seen in 2011.

If we stop out just under that level, then we put the odds in our favor with a nearly $10 upside potential to the "least traded level in Silver" at $25, up from the highest traded level in silver at the $13 level.

2016年10月9日

ノート

So far, it's been a great odds trade for silver on the long side:

Silver rallied to $21.11 from $14.50 (nearly $7 or a 50% rally, while only dropping to $13.5, $1 or 8%, I like how this trade has gone... nearly 6:1 upside versus downside so far.

Since peaked and now settling back recently to $17.08 low, we can take another look and try to figure out if we can press our long position here or decide to walk away from this trade. Here's what I see now: VIX spikes correspond to higher and higher levels in Silver, which alerts me that silver is accumulated and ready to rally. When Silver was in a bear market, it would fall to lower levels on each spike. That is a sign of a broken market, or a downtrend.

Stay tuned.