HEADER - This is my answer for gold's curious price action since 1800.
SUMMARY - Short around 1780, preferably AFTER 8/22. Cover around 1550, preferably BEFORE 9/16.
DETAILS - This move is all technical So even though I forecast this with demographics thesis, I would make the same forecast based on regressions alone. GC late September puts is what I am thinking now. I may or may not add anything to this regardless of its performance bc I don't have the time to provide support.
NOTES - Bold line is down trend since March high. This is my most complete work ever, in terms of fundamental thesis. This forecast disagrees with pretty much all experts in precious metals space.
SUMMARY - Short around 1780, preferably AFTER 8/22. Cover around 1550, preferably BEFORE 9/16.
DETAILS - This move is all technical So even though I forecast this with demographics thesis, I would make the same forecast based on regressions alone. GC late September puts is what I am thinking now. I may or may not add anything to this regardless of its performance bc I don't have the time to provide support.
NOTES - Bold line is down trend since March high. This is my most complete work ever, in terms of fundamental thesis. This forecast disagrees with pretty much all experts in precious metals space.
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NOTES 4 - This draft is not much different from Liquidity Crisis Draft 3, just has celing 25 pts higher (1780 vs 1755).
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NOTES 3 - Here's what early draft through 2024-2025 looks like: