BTC at decision point

アップデート済

I began making this chart at the beginning of December after observing that the June2016 and the October 2015 pumps were preceded by a long period of low R.O.C. on a raising RSI. So far the prediction went well and it appeared that this could easily go parabolic into the 1000 EUR region.

However BTC is at a pivot point after just forming a tentative short term double top. While the two previous pumps would suggest that we are at the midpoint of this current one, there are reasons to believe we might be in for a serious correction.
Pros:

Bullish trend
Godmode still has room for a continuation of overheating until a bearish divergence sets in.
ROC is still on the primary pump.

Cons:

RSI Band is squeezed more than ever. This could be a major top.
Top has been rejected harshly 3 times around the 6530 CNY area in a short time period.
This pump may have started in October and not in December making this current pump the secondary instead of the primary.
Stochastics is signaling a short term drop and the green RSI signal in the RSI band made its first departure from the squeeze spot, signaling reversal potential.

The long term trend remains fully bullish, having established new highs in market cap and other secondary measures. But caution on the short term is advised.

Targets below 810 are 700 and 620. Targets above 900 are 1150 and beyond putting the price in position for a A.T.H. breakout.

ノート

Bullish scenario realized, due to EUR spread in western exchanges the 900 breakout signal is pretty much passed. Target is 1150 EUR medium term.
Set up stop losses around the 850 area, when this eventually reverses it will be fast and brutal.

ノート

Good response to a small dip. Stop loss level can now be updated to the 900 EUR area to ensure break even. 1150 is still the target but some profit taking at 1000 EUR will be a good policy.

ノート

We just broke the 1000$ level on bitfinex, needless to say this is bullish as hell. Hopefully those that had their stop losses set to 900 re-bougth as price went back above it. Sorry I could not update yesterday to warn about that. The stop loss was the correct move, the little loss in transaction fees was worth the risk management and preventing what could have been a flash crash.
Also, the advice is still to stick with the plan and take 25-50% profits at 1000EUR, regardless of further price pumping.

ノート

We are starting to get some cool-down at 980 EUR price level. It can be a good idea to begin scaling out some of the initial position. We are at almost 10% in the profit in this trade alone, much more for those that bought in at the beginning of December, and a 5% flash correction is due any time now. Drop to 940-920 would be very normal.
If that happens, buy back in as low as you manage with a tight stop loss.

ノート

995 EUR price level. The plan is still to scale back position by 25% to 50% (according to your risk appetite) at this level and let the rest roll. Stop loss at 900 and buy back in at 920-940 if the price seems to hold at that level.

ノート

1000€ !!!

ノート

FOMO has settled in and spirits are euphoric. Price at 1084 deserves respect, make sure your stop losses are in place, a trailing stop of about 3-5% is probably a good option. 1150 EUR target is almost hit, if it spikes there make sure you have order in place to take profit. Then let a minor position ride if you want to keep gambling.

ノート

Word of warning. China exchanges are now paying 100 EUR worth of premium in relation to Kraken. This is highly irregular market behaviour and was only seen near the peak of previous BTC highs.
While target remains 1150 EUR, in theory it was already reached on the Chinese exchanges. Its unclear if the west will pull up towards china or the inverse will happen. Make risk management your priority at this point.

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

Hopefully everyone listened to my warning about risk management and had their stop losses in place.