ショート

Kursrutsch

アップデート済

Anleger verlieren Vertrauen in US-Staatsanleihen

In den USA kommt es heute zu einem Kursrutsch bei US-Anleihen. Die Renditen der US30 YT nähert sich der Marke von 3,00%. Am Morgen hat der besser als erwartete Ifo Index die Initialzündung gegeben. Positive Konjunkturdaten aus Grossbritannien haben das Momentum bis zu Stunde verstärkt.

Hauptgrund dürfte allerdings das schwindende Vertrauen in US Präsident Donald Trump sein. Die von Trump geplanten Steuersenkungen verursachen weitere Steuerausfälle von bis zu 2.000 Mrd. US-Dollar in den kommenden Jahren. Trump erwartet durch die Steuersenkung ein Wirtschaftswachstum von 4% (!). Damit sollen zusätzliche Steuerausnahmen die Steuerausfälle aufgrund niedrigerer Steuertarife ausgleichen. Experten halten Wachstumsraten von 4% und die erwarteten Steuermehreinnahmen für illusorisch. Auch ohne die TAX Reform stehen Staatsanleihen global unter Druck. Die massiven Aufkäufe von Staatsanleihen laufen aus. Seit 2001 haben Fed, BOJ und EZB ihre Bilanzen saldiert um 10.000 Mrd. US Dollar aufgebläht. Diese zusätzliche Liquidität steht ab 2018 nicht mehr in diesem Umfang zur Verfügung. Die EZB wird die Anleihekäufe reduzieren. Die Fed wird ihre Balance Sheet ab Ende 2018 jährlich um 600 Mrd. US-Dollar ebenfalls reduzieren. Aktuell sind die Renditen nicht hoch genug, um Aktienmärkte nachhaltig unter Druck zu setzen ("Alterantivlose Anlageform"). Ebenso dürfte die EZB am Donnerstag eher vorsichtig agieren. Langfristig beginnt in den USA gerade ein langfristiger Bear Market für US Staatsanleihen. In 2018 sollte dies auf andere Märkte ausstrahlen (Aktien, Forex).

Quellen:
Ifo-Geschäftsklima steigt nach Bundestagswahl auf Rekordhoch
de.investing.com/news/wirtschafts-indikatoren/ifogeschaftsklima-hellt-sich-im-oktober-deutlich-auf-509668

UK economy picks up speed, puts BoE rate hike firmly on track
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/uk-economy-picks-up-speed-in-third-quarter-puts-boe-rate-hike-firmly-on-track-547208
spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-und-die-steuerreform-es-geht-um-alles-a-1174342.html
huffingtonpost.de/2017/10/25/republikaner-revolte-trump_n_18374110.html

ノート

Link zu dieser Trading idea via "US 10YR: Drop Below 100 Likely Negative For Stockmarkets Globally" (Link u.a. "Ähnliche Ideen").

US10YR: Drop Below 100 Could Trigger Higher Bond Yields Globally

ノート

U.S. durable goods data suggests strong business equipment spending investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-core-capital-goods-orders-beat-expectations-in-september-547426

ノート

FUNDMENTAL VIEW, BOND MARKTES
GUNDLACH: The bond market's 'moment of truth has arrived'
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/gundlach-the-bond-markets-moment-of-truth-has-arrived-547535

ノート

CNBC: Grund für den sell off an den Aktienmärkten ist der laufende Zinsanstieg in den USA. Zitiert wird Jeff Gundlach.
Der heutige Tag gibt eine Idee, wie 2018 ablaufen könnte.
Kurzfristig sind US Zinsen, trotz des beginnenden Bearmarkets, mit 1,599 % (US 2YR) bis 2,9553% (US 30YT) noch viel zu niedrig, um Aktienmärkte wirklich zu bedrohen. Die Renditen waren in den letzten Jahren schlicht und einfach nur extrem niedrig.

ノート

Draghi Expected to Detail ECB’s Tapering Choices investing.com/news/economy-news/draghi-expected-to-detail-ecbs-tapering-choices-548023

ノート

MONETARY POLICY:
Yellen, Tax Reform And Draghi Rock The Markets
By Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management.

Between Fed-chair talk and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement, it was an incredibly lively day in the foreign-exchange market, particularly when the ECB announced its QE change minutes before Politico reported that Yellen and Warsh are out of the Fed-chair race.
investing.com/analysis/fx-yellen-tax-reform-and-draghi-rock-the-markets-200221318

トレード稼働中

Kurseinbruch bei US Anleihen nimmt am Tag der Abstimmung im Kongress Momentum zur downside auf:

トレード稼働中

"Fire and Fury"-Autor Wolff im Radio "Das wird letztlich Trumps Präsidentschaft beenden"

Er hat Donald Trump den bislang wohl schwersten Schlag verpasst: Im Gespräch mit der BBC äußerte sich Autor Michael Wolff nun über sein Enthüllungsbuch "Fire and Fury". spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-buch-autor-michael-wolff-rechnet-mit-ende-der-praesidentschaft-a-1186516.html

トレード稼働中

Treasury Yields Are Surging and Bond Traders Are Starting to Get Nervous

Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/u-s-10-year-yield-climbs-as-boj-action-spurs-exit-speculation

トレード稼働中

Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%

Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803

トレード稼働中

Short Term Up:

Treasury yields pare climb after better-than-expected 10-year note auction

Treasury buying picked up, pushing yields slightly lower, Wednesday afternoon following an auction of 10-year Treasury notes that drew healthier demand than had been expected. An unconfirmed report earlier in the session indicated that China may be considering halting or slowing Treasury purchases, which had cast a pall on the market, driving prices lower and yields higher, as investors appeared to shun U.S. assets. However, market participants described appetite for the 10-year notes as solid. "In the context of a wild and messy few days in interest rates, the 10 year note auction was good," wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer for the Bleakley Advisory Group. The so-called bid-to-cover ratio for the auction stood at 2.69, the highest since 2016. Bid-to-cover ratios are a gauge of appetite for the debt sale, the number represents the proportion of bids received to bids accepted. Treasury auctions can be a litmus test of the state of the bond market. In recent trade, the 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.25% was up at 2.569%, versus 2.542% on late Tuesday. The 2-year note yield TMUBMUSD02Y, +0.01% was slightly higher at 1.973%, from 1.968%. The 30-year bond yield TMUBMUSD30Y, +0.36% was at 2.910%, from 2.883%. marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-pare-climb-after-better-than-expected-10-year-note-auction-2018-01-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts