OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Traders Reality Rate Spike Monitor 0.1 beta
Traders Reality Rate Spike Monitor
## **Early Warning System for Interest Rate-Driven Market Crashes**
Based on critical market analysis revealing the dangerous correlation between interest rate spikes and major market selloffs, this indicator provides **three-tier alerts** for US 10-Year Treasury yield acceleration.
### **📊 Key Market Intelligence:**
**Historical Precedent:** The 2018 market crash occurred when unrealized bank losses hit $256 billion with interest rates at just 2.5%. **Current unrealized losses have reached $560 billion** - more than double the 2018 levels - while rates sit at 4.5%.
**Critical Vulnerabilities:**
- **$559 billion in tech sector debt** maturing through 2025
- **65% of investment-grade debt** rated BBB (vulnerable to adverse conditions)
- **$9.5 trillion in total debt** requiring refinancing
- Every 1% rate increase costs the economy **$360 billion annually**
### **🚨 Alert System:**
**📊 WATCH (20+ basis points/3 days):** Early positioning signal
**⚠️ WARNING (30+ basis points/3 days):** Prepare for volatility
**🚨 CRITICAL (40+ basis points/3 days):** Historical crash threshold
### **💡 Why This Matters:**
Interest rate spikes historically trigger major market corrections:
- **2018:** 70 basis points spike → 20% S&P 500 crash
- **2025:** Similar pattern led to massive selloffs
- **Current risk:** 2x higher unrealized losses than 2018
### **⚡ Features:**
✅ **Zero chart clutter** - invisible until alerts trigger
✅ **Dynamic calculation** - automatically adjusts to current yield levels
✅ **Multi-timeframe compatibility** - works on any chart timeframe
✅ **Professional alerts** - with actual basis point calculations
### **🎯 Use Case:**
Perfect for traders and investors who understand that **debt refinancing pressure** and **unrealized bank losses** create systemic risks that manifest through interest rate volatility. When rates spike rapidly, leveraged positions unwind and markets crash.
**"Every point costs us $360 billion a year. Think of that."** - This indicator helps you see those critical rate movements before the market does.
---
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage risk appropriately.
---
This description positions your indicator as a **serious professional tool** based on real market analysis rather than just another technical indicator! 🚀
## **Early Warning System for Interest Rate-Driven Market Crashes**
Based on critical market analysis revealing the dangerous correlation between interest rate spikes and major market selloffs, this indicator provides **three-tier alerts** for US 10-Year Treasury yield acceleration.
### **📊 Key Market Intelligence:**
**Historical Precedent:** The 2018 market crash occurred when unrealized bank losses hit $256 billion with interest rates at just 2.5%. **Current unrealized losses have reached $560 billion** - more than double the 2018 levels - while rates sit at 4.5%.
**Critical Vulnerabilities:**
- **$559 billion in tech sector debt** maturing through 2025
- **65% of investment-grade debt** rated BBB (vulnerable to adverse conditions)
- **$9.5 trillion in total debt** requiring refinancing
- Every 1% rate increase costs the economy **$360 billion annually**
### **🚨 Alert System:**
**📊 WATCH (20+ basis points/3 days):** Early positioning signal
**⚠️ WARNING (30+ basis points/3 days):** Prepare for volatility
**🚨 CRITICAL (40+ basis points/3 days):** Historical crash threshold
### **💡 Why This Matters:**
Interest rate spikes historically trigger major market corrections:
- **2018:** 70 basis points spike → 20% S&P 500 crash
- **2025:** Similar pattern led to massive selloffs
- **Current risk:** 2x higher unrealized losses than 2018
### **⚡ Features:**
✅ **Zero chart clutter** - invisible until alerts trigger
✅ **Dynamic calculation** - automatically adjusts to current yield levels
✅ **Multi-timeframe compatibility** - works on any chart timeframe
✅ **Professional alerts** - with actual basis point calculations
### **🎯 Use Case:**
Perfect for traders and investors who understand that **debt refinancing pressure** and **unrealized bank losses** create systemic risks that manifest through interest rate volatility. When rates spike rapidly, leveraged positions unwind and markets crash.
**"Every point costs us $360 billion a year. Think of that."** - This indicator helps you see those critical rate movements before the market does.
---
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage risk appropriately.
---
This description positions your indicator as a **serious professional tool** based on real market analysis rather than just another technical indicator! 🚀
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、この作者はスクリプトのソースコードを公開しているので、その内容を理解し検証することができます。作者に感謝です！無料でお使いいただけますが、このコードを投稿に再利用する際にはハウスルールに従うものとします。
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、この作者はスクリプトのソースコードを公開しているので、その内容を理解し検証することができます。作者に感謝です！無料でお使いいただけますが、このコードを投稿に再利用する際にはハウスルールに従うものとします。
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。