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GARCH Range Predictor
This was inspired by deltatrendtrading's video on GARCH models to predict daily trading ranges and identify favorable trading conditions. Based on advanced volatility forecasting techniques, it predicts whether a trading day's true range will exceed a threshold, helping traders decide when to trade or skip a session.
Key Features
GARCH(1,1) Volatility Modeling: Uses log-transformed true ranges with exponential moving average centering
Forward-Looking Predictions: Makes predictions at session start before the day unfolds
Dynamic or Static Thresholds: Choose between fixed dollar thresholds or adaptive 20-day averages
Accuracy Tracking: Monitors prediction accuracy with overall and recent (20-day) hit rates
Visual Session Boxes: Colors trading sessions green (trade) or red (skip) based on predictions
Real-Time Statistics: Displays current predictions, thresholds, and performance metrics
How It Works
Data Transformation: Log-transforms daily true ranges and centers them using an EMA
Variance Modeling: Updates GARCH variance using: σ²ₜ = ω + α(residual²) + β(σ²ₜ₋₁)
Prediction Generation: Back-transforms log predictions to dollar values
Signal Generation: Compares predictions to threshold to generate trade/skip signals
Performance Tracking: Validates predictions against actual outcomes
Parameters
GARCH Parameters (ω, α, β): Control volatility persistence and mean reversion
EMA Period: Smoothing period for log range centering
Threshold Settings: Static dollar amount or dynamic multiplier of recent averages
Session Time: Define regular trading hours for analysis
Best Use Cases
Breakout and momentum strategies that perform better on high-range days
Risk management by avoiding low-volatility sessions
Futures day trading (optimized for MNQ/NQ detection)
Any strategy where daily range impacts profitability
Important Notes
Requires 5+ sessions for initialization and warm-up
Accuracy depends heavily on proper parameter tuning for your specific instrument
Default parameters may need adjustment for different markets
Monitor the hit rate to validate effectiveness on your timeframe
Key Features
GARCH(1,1) Volatility Modeling: Uses log-transformed true ranges with exponential moving average centering
Forward-Looking Predictions: Makes predictions at session start before the day unfolds
Dynamic or Static Thresholds: Choose between fixed dollar thresholds or adaptive 20-day averages
Accuracy Tracking: Monitors prediction accuracy with overall and recent (20-day) hit rates
Visual Session Boxes: Colors trading sessions green (trade) or red (skip) based on predictions
Real-Time Statistics: Displays current predictions, thresholds, and performance metrics
How It Works
Data Transformation: Log-transforms daily true ranges and centers them using an EMA
Variance Modeling: Updates GARCH variance using: σ²ₜ = ω + α(residual²) + β(σ²ₜ₋₁)
Prediction Generation: Back-transforms log predictions to dollar values
Signal Generation: Compares predictions to threshold to generate trade/skip signals
Performance Tracking: Validates predictions against actual outcomes
Parameters
GARCH Parameters (ω, α, β): Control volatility persistence and mean reversion
EMA Period: Smoothing period for log range centering
Threshold Settings: Static dollar amount or dynamic multiplier of recent averages
Session Time: Define regular trading hours for analysis
Best Use Cases
Breakout and momentum strategies that perform better on high-range days
Risk management by avoiding low-volatility sessions
Futures day trading (optimized for MNQ/NQ detection)
Any strategy where daily range impacts profitability
Important Notes
Requires 5+ sessions for initialization and warm-up
Accuracy depends heavily on proper parameter tuning for your specific instrument
Default parameters may need adjustment for different markets
Monitor the hit rate to validate effectiveness on your timeframe
オープンソーススクリプト
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Sharing my journey to consistent futures trading | Win or lose | Learning together | Developing algorithmic strategies
免責事項
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オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、この作者はスクリプトのソースコードを公開しているので、その内容を理解し検証することができます。作者に感謝です！無料でお使いいただけますが、このコードを投稿に再利用する際にはハウスルールに従うものとします。
Sharing my journey to consistent futures trading | Win or lose | Learning together | Developing algorithmic strategies
免責事項
これらの情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または保証する金融、投資、取引、またはその他の種類のアドバイスや推奨を意図したものではなく、またそのようなものでもありません。詳しくは利用規約をご覧ください。