All Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]

7月29日

█  OVERVIEW


This indicator automatically draws and sends alerts for all of the harmonic patterns in my public library as they occur. The patterns included are as follows:

• Bearish 5-0
• Bullish 5-0
• Bearish ABCD
• Bullish ABCD
• Bearish Alternate Bat
• Bullish Alternate Bat
• Bearish Bat
• Bullish Bat
• Bearish Butterfly
• Bullish Butterfly
• Bearish Cassiopeia A
• Bullish Cassiopeia A
• Bearish Cassiopeia B
• Bullish Cassiopeia B
• Bearish Cassiopeia C
• Bullish Cassiopeia C
• Bearish Crab
• Bullish Crab
• Bearish Deep Crab
• Bullish Deep Crab
• Bearish Cypher
• Bullish Cypher
• Bearish Gartley
• Bullish Gartley
• Bearish Shark
• Bullish Shark
• Bearish Three-Drive
• Bullish Three-Drive


█  CONCEPTS


Green and Red Candles

• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.

Swing Highs and Swing Lows

• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.

Peak and Trough Prices

• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.

Historic Peaks and Troughs

The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.

Upper Trends

• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.

Lower Trends

• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.

Range

The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.

Wave Cycles

A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.



Figure 1.


Retracement and Extension Ratios

Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.

Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios

The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.

The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.

Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.

Measurement Tolerances

Tolerance refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. I have applied this concept in my pattern detection logic and have set default tolerances where applicable, as perfect patterns are, needless to say, very rare.

Chart Patterns

Generally speaking price charts are nothing more than a series of swing highs and swing lows. When demand outweighs supply over a period of time prices swing higher and when supply outweighs demand over a period of time prices swing lower. These swing highs and swing lows can form patterns that offer insight into the prevailing supply and demand dynamics at play at the relevant moment in time.

‘Let us assume… that you the reader, are not a member of that mysterious inner circle known to the boardrooms as “the insiders”… But it is fairly certain that there are not nearly so many “insiders” as amateur trader supposes and… It is even more certain that insiders can be wrong… Any success they have, however, can be accomplished only by buying and selling… [And] [t]hey can do neither without altering the delicate poise of supply and demand that governs prices. Whatever they do is sooner or later reflected on the charts where you… can detect it. Or detect, at least, the way in which the supply-demand equation is being affected… So, you do not need to be an insider to ride with them frequently… prices move in trends. Some of those trends are straight, some are curved; some are brief and some are long and continued… produced in a series of action and reaction waves of great uniformity. Sooner or later, these trends change direction; they may reverse (as from up to down), or they may be interrupted by some sort of sideways movement and then, after a time, proceed again in their former direction… when a price trend is in the process of reversal… a characteristic area or pattern takes shape on the chart, which becomes recognisable as a reversal formation… Needless to say, the first and most important task of the technical chart analyst is to learn to know the important reversal formations and to judge what they may signify in terms of trading opportunities’ (Edwards & Magee, 1948).

This is as true today as it was when Edwards and Magee were writing in the first half of the last Century, study your patterns and make judgements for yourself about what their implications truly are on the markets and timeframes you are interested in trading.

Over the years, traders have come to discover a multitude of chart and candlestick patterns that are supposed to pertain information on future price movements. However, it is never so clear cut in practice and patterns that where once considered to be reversal patterns are now considered to be continuation patterns and vice versa. Bullish patterns can have bearish implications and bearish patterns can have bullish implications. As such, I would highly encourage you to do your own backtesting.

There is no denying that chart patterns exist, but their implications will vary from market to market and timeframe to timeframe. So it is down to you as an individual to study them and make decisions about how they may be used in a strategic sense.

Harmonic Patterns

The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements. The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.

Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.


█  INPUTS


• Change pattern and label colours
• Show or hide patterns individually
• Adjust pattern tolerances
• Set or remove alerts for individual patterns


█  NOTES


You can test the patterns with your own strategies manually by applying the indicator to your chart while in bar replay mode and playing through the history. You could also automate this process with PineScript by using the conditions from my swing and pattern libraries as entry conditions in the strategy tester or your own custom made strategy screener.

█  LIMITATIONS


All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.


█  SOURCES


Edwards, R., & Magee, J. (1948) Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (10th edn). Reprint, Boca Raton, Florida: Taylor and Francis Group, CRC Press: 2013.