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Fed Rate Probability
Fed Rate Probability – Simple & Clean v2.0
Real-time composite score (0–100) for the next Fed move: Rate Cut, Hike or Hold
Overview
A clean, all-in-one indicator that combines the most reliable market signals into two easy-to-read lines:
• Red line → Probability of RATE CUT
• Blue line → Probability of RATE HIKE
• Hold score = 100 – max(cut, hike)
The dominant signal (CUT / HOLD / HIKE) is highlighted in the information table.
Key Features
Score Composition (0–100 points)
Interpretation
Why this indicator?
Instead of checking FRED, CME FedWatch, yield curves and T-bill spreads separately, get everything in one pane with a clear, smoothed composite score and instant alerts when the market starts pricing a Fed move aggressively.
Disclaimer
This is a decision-support tool based on historical relationships and current market pricing. It is not financial advice and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Enjoy and trade safe! 🚀
Real-time composite score (0–100) for the next Fed move: Rate Cut, Hike or Hold
Overview
A clean, all-in-one indicator that combines the most reliable market signals into two easy-to-read lines:
• Red line → Probability of RATE CUT
• Blue line → Probability of RATE HIKE
• Hold score = 100 – max(cut, hike)
The dominant signal (CUT / HOLD / HIKE) is highlighted in the information table.
Key Features
- Automatic daily data from FRED (DFF, 3M/1M/2Y/10Y yields)
- Smart fallback to TradingView native symbols (US01MY, US03MY, US02Y, US10Y) when FRED is unavailable
- Manual CME FedWatch probability override (perfect for weekends/holidays)
- Historical Fed rate cut/hike markers with background shading and labels
- Colored probability zones + customizable threshold lines
- Threshold-crossing labels and full alert suite
- Special alert on 2Y-10Y yield curve un-inversion (strong historical precursor to rate cuts)
- Detailed summary table with current spreads, scores and dominant signal
- Fully customizable: enable/disable each component, adjust weights indirectly via toggles, change smoothing, thresholds, colors, etc.
Score Composition (0–100 points)
- T-bills vs Fed Funds spread – max 50 pts (with persistence & 1M confirmation bonus)
- 2-Year Treasury vs Fed Funds spread – max 30 pts (or direct CME probability input)
- 2Y-10Y yield curve behavior – max 20 pts (inversion depth + large bonus on steepening after un-inversion)
Interpretation
0–40 → Low probability
40–60 → Moderate
60–75 → High
75–100 → Very High / Almost certain
Why this indicator?
Instead of checking FRED, CME FedWatch, yield curves and T-bill spreads separately, get everything in one pane with a clear, smoothed composite score and instant alerts when the market starts pricing a Fed move aggressively.
Disclaimer
This is a decision-support tool based on historical relationships and current market pricing. It is not financial advice and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Enjoy and trade safe! 🚀
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。