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Bitcoin Reversal Predictor
Overview
This indicator displays two lines that, when they cross, signal a potential reversal in Bitcoin's price trend. Historically, the high or low of a bull market cycle often occurs near the moment these lines intersect. The lines consist of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a logarithmic regression line fitted to all of Bitcoin's historical data.
Inspiration
The inspiration for this indicator came from the PI Cycle Top indicator, which has accurately predicted past bull market peaks. However, I believe the PI Cycle Top indicator may not be as effective in the future. In that indicator, two lines cross to mark the top, but the extent of the cross has been diminishing over time. This was especially noticeable in the 2021 cycle, where the lines barely crossed. Because of this, I created a new indicator that I think will continue to provide reliable reversal signals in the future.
How It Works
The logarithmic regression line is fitted to the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). This results in a steadily decreasing line. The EMA oscillates above and below this regression line. Each time the two lines cross, a vertical colored bar appears, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum is likely to reverse.
Use Cases
- Price Bottoming:
Bitcoin often bottoms out when the EMA crosses below the logarithmic regression line.
- Price Topping:
In contrast, Bitcoin often peaks when the EMA crosses above the logarithmic regression line.
- Profitable Strategy:
Trading at the crossovers of these lines can be a profitable strategy, as these moments often signal significant price reversals.
This indicator displays two lines that, when they cross, signal a potential reversal in Bitcoin's price trend. Historically, the high or low of a bull market cycle often occurs near the moment these lines intersect. The lines consist of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a logarithmic regression line fitted to all of Bitcoin's historical data.
Inspiration
The inspiration for this indicator came from the PI Cycle Top indicator, which has accurately predicted past bull market peaks. However, I believe the PI Cycle Top indicator may not be as effective in the future. In that indicator, two lines cross to mark the top, but the extent of the cross has been diminishing over time. This was especially noticeable in the 2021 cycle, where the lines barely crossed. Because of this, I created a new indicator that I think will continue to provide reliable reversal signals in the future.
How It Works
The logarithmic regression line is fitted to the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart using two key factors: the 'a' factor (slope) and the 'b' factor (intercept). This results in a steadily decreasing line. The EMA oscillates above and below this regression line. Each time the two lines cross, a vertical colored bar appears, indicating that Bitcoin's price momentum is likely to reverse.
Use Cases
- Price Bottoming:
Bitcoin often bottoms out when the EMA crosses below the logarithmic regression line.
- Price Topping:
In contrast, Bitcoin often peaks when the EMA crosses above the logarithmic regression line.
- Profitable Strategy:
Trading at the crossovers of these lines can be a profitable strategy, as these moments often signal significant price reversals.
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。
オープンソーススクリプト
TradingViewの精神に則り、このスクリプトの作者はコードをオープンソースとして公開してくれました。トレーダーが内容を確認・検証できるようにという配慮です。作者に拍手を送りましょう！無料で利用できますが、コードの再公開はハウスルールに従う必要があります。
免責事項
この情報および投稿は、TradingViewが提供または推奨する金融、投資、トレード、その他のアドバイスや推奨を意図するものではなく、それらを構成するものでもありません。詳細は利用規約をご覧ください。