The COIN/BTC Volume-Weighted Divergence indicator identifies buy and sell signals by analyzing deviations between Coinbase and Bitcoin prices relative to their respective VWAPs (Volume-Weighted Average Price). This method isolates points of potential trend reversals, overextensions, or relative mispricing based on volume-adjusted price benchmarks.
The indicator leverages Coinbase’s high beta relative to Bitcoin in bull markets. A buy signal occurs when Coinbase is below VWAP (indicating undervaluation) while Bitcoin is above VWAP (signaling strong broader momentum). A sell signal is generated when Coinbase trades above VWAP (indicating overvaluation) while Bitcoin moves below VWAP (indicating weakening momentum).
This divergence logic enables traders to identify misalignment between Bitcoin-driven market trends and Coinbase’s price behavior. The indicator effectively identifies undervalued entry points and signals exits before speculative extensions are correct. It provides a systematic approach to trading during trending conditions, aligning decisions with volume-weighted price dynamics and inter-asset relationships.
How It Works
1. VWAP: “fair value” benchmark combining price and volume. • Above VWAP: Bullish momentum. • Below VWAP: Bearish momentum. 2. Divergence: • Coinbase Divergence: close - coin_vwap (distance from COIN’s VWAP). • Bitcoin Divergence: btc_price - btc_vwap (distance from BTC’s VWAP). 3. Signals: • Buy: Coinbase is below VWAP (potentially oversold), and Bitcoin is above VWAP (broader bullish trend). • Sell: Coinbase is above VWAP (potentially overbought), and Bitcoin is below VWAP (broader bearish trend). 4. Visualization: • Green triangle: Buy signal. • Red triangle: Sell signal.
Strengths • Combines price and volume for reliable insights. • Highlights potential trend reversals or overextensions. • Exploits correlations between Coinbase and Bitcoin.
Limitations • Struggles in sideways markets. • Sensitive to volume spikes, which may distort VWAP. • Ineffective in strong trends where divergence persists.
Improvements 1. Z-Scores: Use statistical thresholds (e.g., ±2 std dev) for stronger signals. 2. Volume Filter: Generate signals only during high-volume periods. 3. Momentum Confirmation: Combine with RSI or MACD for better reliability. 4. Multi-Timeframe VWAP: Use intraday, daily, and weekly VWAPs for deeper analysis.