The Signal - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Buy/Sell

2021年6月15日

The Signal - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Buy/Sell

Why Bother with another CoT signal?

Its different & focused on the Insider's. The Largest 4 Open Interest Seller and the Largest 4 open Interest Longs, plus the distance they are apart, the Delta, what does high percentage of Largest 4 sellers mean with a low 4 OI Buyers. [bearish], what when the usually higher Sellers are low and the largest 4 buyers almost the same value [Bullish], Time to track the insiders Delta..

Performance -

This Indicator provided a

1. Signal 1 = 26th March 2019 = SUPER LONG at $4,500 that saw a near $14,000 run up
2. Signal 2 = 18th & 24th June 2019 = SHORT at the second & final level $11,700 after repeated attempts & failure in the 13K range, the mini Echo Bitcoin Bull of 2019
3. Signal 3 = 17th December 2019 = LONG $6,900, Bitcoin rallied to Mid $10,500's
4. Signal 4 = 18th Feb 2020 = SUPER SHORT from $9,700's to a final extreme Low of $3,000, calling the CV-19 collapse
5. Signal 5 = 17th March 2020 = LONG from $5,400 no closure point yet
6. Signal 6 = 29th June 2020 = SUPER LONG reiterate from $10,700 no closure sell signal yet
7. Signal 7 = 17th May 2020 = LONG another accumulate LONG with no sell signal yet generated at Post H&S's low of $33,000

Note - This indicator only commences March 2019, as Bitcoin futures were a recent introduction and needed to settle for 6 months in both use and data, no signals were meaningful prior & data was light.

What is Provided. - Please note the need to also add the Hunt Bitcoin Historical Volatility Indicator for full understanding.

We provide 3 things with the 3 indicators.

'Insider' indications from Largest players in the futures market.

1. Bitcoin Macro Buy Signals.

a) The Bitcoin Commitment of Traders [CoT] results see us focus solely on Largest 4 Short Open Interest & Largest 4 Long Open Interest aspects of the CoT Release data.

When the difference [Shorts OI] - [Long OI] is tight, a kind of pinch, these have been great Buy signals in Bitcoin.

We call this difference the Delta & When Delta is 5% or less Bitcoin is a Buy.

2. Bitcoin Macro Sells.

a) A sell signal is Triggered in Bitcoin at any point the Largest 4 short OI > or = to 70


3. AMPLIFIER Trade signals 'Super' Longs or Shorts - [*Please note to see the 'AMPLIFIER' signals also add the Hunt Bitcoin Historical Volatility on the 2 day timeframe]

Extreme low volatility events leads to highly impulsive & volatile subsequent moves, if either of 1 or 2 above occur, combined with extreme low volatility
a 'Super Long' or 'SUPER SELL' is generated. In the case of the short side, given Bitcoins general expansive and MACRO Bull trend since inception, we seek an additional component
that is an extreme differential/Delta reading between 4 biggest Longs & Shorts OI.
Namely CoT Delta also must be > 47.5%

We also have a Cautionary level, where it is not necessarily a good idea to accumulate Bitcon, as a better opportunity lower may avail itself, see conditions below.


So the required logic explicitly stated below for all Signals.

1. Long - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta < or = 5
2. SUPER Long - Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta < or = 5; and 2 Day Historical Bitcoin Volatility = or < 20


3. Short - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 70
4. SUPER Short - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 70; AND..
Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta = or > 47.5 AND 2 Day Historical BTC Volatility = or < 20


5. Caution - Largest 4 Sellers OI = or > 67.5 AND Hunt Bitcoin CoT Delta = or > 45 [Close to a potential sell signal]


WARNING SEE Notes Below
Note 1 - [Thin Red Line] = Largest 4 Open Interest Shorts
Note 2 - [Thin Green Line] = Largest 4 Open Interest Longs
Note 3 - [Thick Blue Line] = Hunt Cot Delta = (Largest 4 sellers OI) -( Largest 4 Buyers OI)
Caution = Avoid new Bitcoin Accumulation Right Now, A sell signal might follow Enter on next Long
Note 4 - The Hunt Bitcoin COT Delta signal is a Largest 'Insider' Tracking tool based on a segment of Commitment of Traders [CoT] data on Bitcoin Futures, released once a week on a Friday.
It is a Macro Timeframe signal, and should not be used for Day trading and Short Timeframe analysis, Entries may be optimised after a Hunt Bitcoin CoT [Commitment of Traders] Signal is generated by separate shorter Timeframe analysis.
Note 5 - The Historical Bitcoin Volatility is an additional 'Amplifier' component to the 'Hunt Bitcoin Cot Delta' Insider Signal
Note 6 - The Historical Bitcoin Volatility criteria varies by timeframe, the above levels are those applying on a Two [2] Day TF Chart, select this custom timeframe in Trading View.
if additional criteria are met for LONG & SHORT insider signals, they may become 'Super Longs/Shorts', see conditions box above.