株価収益率 (PER)
🔗 Blockchain Rhythms by Cryptorhythms🎼 Blockchain Rhythms v1.0 by Cryptorhythms
This indicator and data plot suite is for bitcoin BTCUSD analysis over longer periods and higher time frames. 🚨For this to plot anything you must use on Daily or higher timeframe🚨 .
You want to have an alternative to the typical technical indicators you see everywhere? This is it. Seen crypto twitter talking about/using all sorts of indicators you have never seen before on tradingview? Here you go. Are you a long term investor and not a short term speculator?... I think you get the picture...
With the wealth of data here, I cannot go into a fully detailed analysis for every indicator. Please make liberal use of google and as always DYOR before trading on a system you have never used.
These indicators are best observed versus a logarithmic price scale. If I have missed any indicators you think should be in here let me know! Let me preempt that by saying MVRV and UTXO Age Distribution are not possible to create on Tradingview at this time.
🚧Error Screen:
If you see this you need to choose a data-point or indicator to plot!
⌚If you are loading this indicator with alot of chart history shown (as in the example screenshots) it may take up to a minute to load.
Please note: some of the screenshots below show chart title plots which I subsequently had to remove due to limitations. If you would like a title for all the plot, simple use the Indicator Labels checkbox option located in the scales tab of chart settings.
[b📊 Fundamental Blockchain Indicators
NVT Signal & Ratio
Both are related. NVT / NVT Signal can be interpreted as the strength of market confidence in the means of payment / settlement layer narrative. A “measure of the chain’s strength as a payment network compared to its market value — a low NVT may suggest that a network is undervalued compared to the service it is providing as a settlement layer” (Matteo Leibowitz).
💰NVT Ratio:
NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) is similar to the PE Ratio used in equity markets.
When Bitcoin`s NVT is high, it indicates that its network valuation is outstripping the value being transmitted on its payment network, this can happen when the network is in high growth and investors are valuing it as a high return investment, or alternatively when the price is in an unsustainable bubble.
🚦NVT Signal:
NVT Signal (NVTS) is a derivative of NVT Ratio created by Dimitry Kalichkin. This indicator provides more emphasis on predictive signaling ahead of price peaks.
🚀Bitcoin Velocity
Velocity is a measure of how quickly money is circulating in the economy. Is bitcoin trending towards savings or payments? This can help you decide. It is similar to Bitcoin Network Momentum, except this takes into account bitcoins increasing supply.
🏃Bitcoin Network Momentum
Network Momentum is a view created by PositiveCrypto which looks into the value transmitted through the Bitcoin blockchain denominated in BTC value plotted against Bitcoin's price. It serves as a leading indicator to bitcoin price, in that we need high levels of value throughput to drive the bull market. This indicator is experimental.
Both daily transaction values and price exhibit cyclical patterns, but not in sync with each other. A hypothesis to explain the mismatch is that short-term mindset traders (using exchanges) heavily influence price; but long-term mindset investments (more likely to be directly recorded on-chain) have a greater contribution to the daily transaction value recorded in the ledger.
An alternative to the NVT / NVT Signal - tracks the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and BTC volume flowing through the blockchain network.
Ⓜ Mayer Multiple
Introduced by Trace Mayer as a way to gauge the current price of Bitcoin against its long range historical price movements (200 day SMA by default), the Mayer Multiple highlights when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold in the context of longer time frames.
It`s worth noting as the market becomes larger and less volatile, the peaks are becoming less exaggerated. This is because a 200 day moving average baseline is a static yardstick against an ever growing, more stable, Bitcoin market. We should eventually re-calibrate what constitutes the overbought/oversold extremes on this chart accordingly.
A more fully featured Mayer Multiple version available here:
💲 BTC Marketcap and Thermocap
We are all familiar with marketcap, but it does come with its disadvantages.
A more appropriate measure of network value was recently put forth by Nic Carter. Remember capital flows in crypto generally do not come in via exchanges (miners notably like to sell OTC). Every buy in an exchange is matched by a sell. Money that comes in = money that goes out.
True inflows (in Bitcoin, at least) are the aggregate of resources spent by miners¹. And a good proxy for that is the amount these folks are earning back from networks they support in return for their investments. That’s aggregate security spend (or Thermocap): what was actually paid out to miners (transactions * their price in USD at the time they were mined).
There is an option to deduct lost coins, genesis (Satoshi's) coins, and dead HODL'ers coins from the marketcap. This information was taken from ChainAnalysis' 2017 report
This shows both plots for comparison on a logrithmic scale:
⛏Mining Indicators & Data
⛏ Petahash Dollar Ratio
Bitcoin’s Hashrate (Daily PetaHashes) to Daily Mining Earnings (PetaHashDollar) is a robust metric to asses the day to day mining profitability. In addition, when plotted over the past five years, its overall trend represents a good way to quantify and visualize the relative progress in efficiency of ASICs (more specifically the inverse of that metric: 1/relative mining efficiency).
⛏Unmined Coins Marketcap
A simple statistic I created to plot the value of the unmined BTC still waiting to be extracted. If you find any interesting value for analysis please message me and let me know.
⛏Percentage of Total BTC Mined
I hope this one doesnt need an explanation. 😅
#️⃣ Network Hash Rate
A network's hashrate is the most important data point in blockchain tech. It indicates to the world how secure its network is. The hashrate is the "bridge" between the analog world, and the digital world. Essentially, the hashrate describes how much computing power (called hashing power in blockchain speak) is being thrown at the network, by users all across the world. These "miners" are running servers with dedicated processing chips to solve random, cryptographic math problems. The reason miners do this constant computing is that it betters their chances to reap a "block reward." The block reward entitles them to:
1.)Newly "mined" coins, and
2.)Transaction fees
Both of these are typically paid out with each new block. This rewards miners for their “proof-of-work.” It signals to the world that real "work" and resources, like electricity, have been spent on the Bitcoin network.
As more and more miners compete for the block reward, the hashrate, mining calculations and block difficulty will increase. This increase in the network's hashrate over time means an increase in the network’s security. Much better detail on this is available elsewhere, but primarily, this process solves digital money's vulnerability to attacks and the "double spend" problem.
I like to plot it directly on the price chart (click on the indicator and drag it up)
⛏ Revenue Per Transaction
A chart showing miners revenue divided by the number of transactions.
Fee Per Block Kilobyte
A measure of how much it costs per kilobyte of blockchain block size.
⛏Return Per TeraHash (TH)
Revenue per TH of mining hash power.
Can also be plotted on price chart and looks nice:
Cost Per TX (CPT) and Cost % Per TX Volume
CPT - A chart showing miners revenue divided by the number of transactions
C%PRV - A chart showing miners revenue as percentage of the transaction volume
Blockchain Statistics & Data Plots
🏋Network Difficulty
A relative measure of how difficult it is to find a new block. The difficulty is adjusted periodically as a function of how much hashing power has been deployed by the network of miners.
I like plotting this one on price chart as well:
Daily Output Value
The total value of all transaction outputs per day (includes coins returned to the sender as change).
🔢Number of Unique Addresses Used
Addresses are kind of like bank accounts.
Unlike bank accounts, addresses on the blockchain can be generated by anyone, anywhere and one single person could have thousands.
The plot shows bitcoins growth of addresses which are both unique and active per day, smoothed out over 14 days for clarity (using a zero lag ema). As you can see bull runs typically lead to more unique addresses the assumption being that more new money is drawn into the market due to the news cycle.
This is another one I prefer to plot on the price chart.
🔢Number of Transactions (NoTX) and NoTX - Exchange Wallets
Number of TX's on the chain (green line) and NoTX minus (-) Exchange Wallets (blue line).
⏳ Median Confirmation Time
The median time for a transaction to be accepted into a mined block and added to the public ledger (note: only includes transactions with miner fees). Displayed in minutes.
🔊Volume Dominance (Liquidity to Transaction Volume Ratio)
Volume Dominance is another metric I invented simply to show the ratio between spot exchange TXs (liquidity/speculation) and blockchain TXs (utility/HODLing). Its shows percent of volume attributed to blockchain TXs.
🙃 We REALLY hope you enjoy and find this indicator useful. I certainly enjoyed creating it and learned quite a bit myself manipulating the data! I welcome any suggestions or ideas you may have to further extend, or create new indicators.
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Earnings Support and Resistance Levels [NeoButane]Inspired by @LazyBear's/@timwest's script:
Usage: support and resistance levels based on averaging price around earnings and quarterly opens.
What it is plotting:
1. A horizontal level whenever earnings occur. If actual earnings is higher than estimated, the line turns green, else red.
2. A horizontal level every quarterly open, colored black.
3. An average between the two mentioned above, colored orange.
4. 5% moves away from 3M open and earnings
5. Misc: 5% move away from that 5% move away, then 10% move away from the 2nd 5% move away.
By default, 4 and 5 are off to reduce visual noise.
Idea: Traders panic around certain dates that always happen, and traders always panic in the wrong direction. The market is composed of traders trading in the wrong direction at the same time, all the time. That means price will bounce back and forth as the gambling dens colloquially known as 'forex brokerages' or 'stock exchanges' take your money in the form of fees, time, and liquidations. So I put two lines on the chart and put one right in between, because it always goes back. I hope you can find it useful!
Note: This was a part of the old fundamental data indicators and is not officially for use, so while it should work on most U.S. stocks and a couple of other exchanges, it is not perfect.
Bitcoin Studies (NVT et. al) [NeoButane]Currently studying the effect of NVT on price action and volume.
Stupid strategyStrategy with simple stop-loss and take-profit in percentage. If last trade was a successful one then repeat it. If not successful - do a reversal trade.
Multiplier ChartI am proposing an alternative to the percent change.
An alternative that is symmetrical to both positive and negative change, unlike percentage change.
The simple idea is to have a positive number if the reference value (called val in the script) is lower than the stock value and needs to be multiplied;
a negative number instead if the reference number is higher than the stock value, so the reference value needs to be divided.
Multiplying all by 100 to give clearer and more readable results, the Multiplier would have a huge gap between +100 and -100, because a stock multiplied by 1 or divided by 1 are the same thing.
So we need to compromise and move all positive numbers down by 100 and all negative numbers up by 100. This actually gives a similar result to percentage change, and it is actually identical in the positive range.
The fundamental difference lies on the negative range, which is completely symmetrical. So if a stock goes up 100 points one day (doubles), and the next it goes down another 100 points (halves), at the end of the second day the stock has the same value as it had at the beginning of the first day! On percentage change it would be +100% the first day and -50% the second.
We mustn't undervalue the human tendency to compare a 1% change to a -1% change, but they do not mean the same even if they seem to indicate so.
A clear example of this can be found on CMC 0.60% -3.56% -3.56% (CoinMarketCap), in which each day are shown the best and worst performing coins of the day. So you might see a +900% there in the top performing, but you'll never see a -900%, because percentage change cannot go further than -100%. It is a fundamentally asymmetric scale that can confuse people a lot especially in those fast moving new markets.ù
I am welcome to feedback and all kinds of opinions and critics.
Some interesting things to note: you can use it as a percentage change indicator or as a different perspective to a stock chart. In fact, it lets you see how big of a difference it made buying coins when they were very cheap, because when they are cheap a difference of what it might seem nothing is amplified by all the gains that the stock/coin made after. So, looking at coins charts using this indicator shows how "not flat" were the early days, which in a normal chart are flattened to 0.
Mayer MultipleFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the Mayer multiple by calculating the ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. It also plots the moving average of ratio itself.
Mayer Multiple Buy PriceFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the recommended buy price based on the calculated 2.4x ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. The ratio and SMA length have default values of 2.4 and 200 and can be adjusted.
Earnings S/R Levels [LazyBear]These levels are based on price around earnings day. I have implemented support for 2 calculation modes:
Mode 1: Level = (low of 1 day prior to earnings + high of 1 day after earnings) / 2.0
Mode 2: Level = (hl2 of 1 day prior to earnings + hl2 of 1 day after earnings + close from earnings day) / 3.0
Chart above shows "Mode 1". Mode can be changed via options page.
This indicator was requested by user @mika2k1ff. I learnt more about this idea from @DanV and @TimWest (Thanks guys :)). BTW, TimWest has an indicators package, "Key Hidden Levels", that has this and more.
Do let me know how you use this, I am very intrigued by the potential this idea shows. Thanks.
For a complete list of my indicators:
- GDoc: docs.google.com
- Chart:
