Vega Convenxity Regime Filter [Institutional Lite]STOP TRADING THE NOISE.
90% of retail trading losses occur during "Chop"—sideways markets where standard trend-following bots bleed capital through slippage and fees. Institutional desks know that the secret to high returns isn't just winning trades; it's knowing when to sit in cash.
The Vega V6 Regime Filter is the "Gatekeeper" layer of our proprietary Hierarchical Machine Learning engine (developed by a 25-year TradFi Risk Quant). It calculates a composite volatility score to answer one simple question: Is this asset tradeable right now?
THE VISUAL LOGIC
This indicator visually filters market conditions into two distinct Regimes based on our institutional backtests:
🌫️ GREY BARS (Noise / Chop)
The State: Volatility is compressing. The trend is undefined or weak.
The Trap: This is where MACD/RSI give false signals.
Institutional Action: Sit in Cash. Preserve Capital. Wait.
🟢 🔴 COLORED BARS (Impulse)
The State: Volatility is expanding. Momentum is statistically significant.
The Opportunity: A "Fat-Tail" move is likely beginning.
Institutional Action: Deploy Risk. Look for entries.
HOW IT WORKS (The Math)
Unlike simple moving average crossovers, the Vega Gatekeeper analyzes 4 distinct market dimensions simultaneously to generate a Tradeability Score (0-10) :
Trend Strength (ADX): Is there a vector?
Momentum (RSI/MACD): Is the move accelerating?
Volatility (Bollinger Bands): Is the range expanding?
Volume Flow: Is there institutional participation?
The Rule: If the composite score is < 4 , the market is Noise. The bars turn Grey. You do nothing.
BEST PRACTICES
For Swing Trading (Daily): Use Medium sensitivity. Only look for entries when the background turns Green/Red.
For Day Trading (4H/1H): Use Low sensitivity (more conservative). Use the Grey zones to tighten stops or exit positions.
THE PHILOSOPHY: "CASH IS A POSITION"
Most traders feel the need to be in a trade 24/7. The Vega V6 Engine (the system this tool is based on) achieved a +3,849% backtested return (18 months) largely by sitting in cash during chop. This tool visualizes that discipline.
🔒 WANT THE DIRECTIONAL SIGNALS?
This Lite version provides the Regime (When to trade).
To get the specific Entry Signals , Intraday Stop-Losses , and Probability Matrix (Stage 2 of our model), you need the Vega V6 Convexity Engine .
The Pro Version includes:
🚀 Specific Direction: Classification of "Explosion," "Rally," or "Crash."
🛡️ Dynamic Risk: Plots the exact Stop Loss levels used in our institutional backtests.
🌊 Macro Data: Integration of M2 Liquidity flow alerts.
👉 ACCESS INSTRUCTIONS:
Links to the Pro System , our Live Dashboard , and the 18-Month Performance Audit can be found in the Author Profile below or in the script settings.
Disclaimer: This tool is for educational purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk.
Quantitative
Fractal Fade Pro IndicatorA revolutionary contrarian trading indicator that applies chaos theory, fractal mathematics, and market entropy to generate high-probability reverse signals. This indicator fades traditional technical signals, providing BUY signals when conventional indicators say SELL, and SELL signals when they say BUY.
Full Description:
Most traders follow the herd. QFCI does the opposite. It identifies when conventional technical analysis is about to fail by detecting mathematical patterns of exhaustion in market structure.
How It Works (Technical Overview):
The indicator combines three sophisticated mathematical approaches:
Fractal Dimension Analysis: Measures the "roughness" of price movements using fractal mathematics
Market Entropy Calculation: Quantifies the randomness and disorder in price returns using information theory
Phase Space Reconstruction: Analyzes price evolution in multi-dimensional state space from chaos theory
Signal Generation Process:
Step 1: Market Regime Detection
Chaotic Regime: High fractal complexity + rising entropy (avoid trading)
Trending Regime: Low fractal complexity + high phase space distance (fade breakouts)
Mean-Reverting Regime: Very low fractal complexity (fade extremes)
Step 2: Reverse Signal Logic
When traditional indicators would give:
BUY signal (breakout, oversold bounce, volatility spike) → QFCI shows SELL
SELL signal (breakdown, overbought rejection, volatility crash) → QFCI shows BUY
Step 3: Smart Signal Filtering
No consecutive same-direction signals
Adjustable minimum bars between signals
Multiple confirmation layers required
Unique Features:
1. Mathematical Innovation:
Original fractal dimension algorithm (not standard indicators)
Market entropy calculation from information theory
Phase space reconstruction from chaos theory
Multi-regime adaptive logic
2. Trading Psychology Advantage:
Contrarian by design - profits from market overreactions
Fades retail trader mistakes - enters when others are exiting
Reduces overtrading - strict signal frequency controls
3. Clean Visual Interface:
Only BUY/SELL labels - no chart clutter
Clear directional arrows - immediate signal recognition
Built-in alerts - never miss a trade
Recommended Settings:
Default (Balanced Approach):
Fractal Depth: 20
Entropy Period: 200
Min Bars Between Signals: 100
Aggressive Trading:
Fractal Depth: 10-15
Entropy Period: 100-150
Min Bars Between Signals: 50-75
Conservative Trading:
Fractal Depth: 30-40
Entropy Period: 300-400
Min Bars Between Signals: 150-200
Optimal Timeframes:
Primary: Daily, Weekly (best performance)
Secondary: 4-Hour, 12-Hour
Can work on: 1-Hour (with adjusted parameters)
How to Use:
For Beginners:
Apply indicator to chart
Use default settings
Wait for BUY/SELL labels
Enter on next candle open
Use 2:1 risk/reward ratio
Always use stop losses
For Advanced Traders:
Adjust parameters for your trading style
Combine with support/resistance levels
Use volume confirmation
Scale in/out of positions
Track performance by regime
Risk Management Guidelines:
Position Sizing:
Conservative: 1-2% risk per trade
Moderate: 2-3% risk per trade
Aggressive: 3-5% risk per trade (not recommended)
Stop Loss Placement:
BUY signals: Below recent swing low or -2x ATR
SELL signals: Above recent swing high or +2x ATR
Take Profit Targets:
Primary: 2x risk (minimum)
Secondary: Previous support/resistance
Tertiary: Trailing stops after 1.5x risk
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.
Relative Strength Matrix [PUCHON]📊 Relative Strength Matrix
The Relative Strength Matrix provides a comprehensive view of how the current asset performs against a basket of other financial instruments (such as Indices, Commodities, or Currencies). By comparing price changes over two distinct timeframes (Short-Term and Long-Term), traders can quickly identify whether the asset is showing relative strength or weakness compared to the broader market or specific sectors.
✨ Features:
- 🌍 Multi-Asset Comparison: Monitor relative performance against up to 7 customizable symbols simultaneously.
- ⏳ Dual Timeframe: Analyze trends using both Short-Term (default 20) and Long-Term (default 60) lookback periods.
- 🎨 Visual Heatmap: Displays relative strength with intuitive colors:
- 🟢 Green (+): Stronger (outperforming)
- 🔴 Red (-): Weaker (underperforming)
- ⚪ Gray: Neutral
- ⚙️ Fully Customizable: Adjust symbols, colors, table position, and text size to fit your trading setup.
🧮 Calculation Logic:
The core of this indicator is the rsCalc function. It normalizes the price changes of both the base asset (current chart) and the comparison asset over a specific length, then calculates the ratio.
rsCalc(series float base, series float comp, int len) =>
nb = base / base // Normalized Base Asset Price
dc = comp / comp // Normalized Comparison Asset Price
na(nb) or na(dc) ? na : nb / dc - 1 // Relative Performance Ratio
💡 Interpretation:
- 📈 Positive Value (> 0): The current asset has appreciated more (or depreciated less) than the comparison asset. This signifies Relative Strength .
- 📉 Negative Value (< 0): The current asset has appreciated less (or depreciated more) than the comparison asset. This signifies Relative Weakness .
- ⚖️ Zero (0): Both assets have performed equally over the period.
India Vix based Strangle StrikesA clean Nifty–VIX dashboard that converts India VIX into expected daily moves, price ranges, and suggested strangle strikes. Includes VIX %, expanded 1.2× range, and smart rounded strike levels for options trading.
This script provides a professional on-chart dashboard that converts India VIX into actionable trading levels for Nifty. It calculates the VIX-based expected daily move, projected price ranges, expanded 1.2× ranges, and suggested strangle strike prices. Includes clean formatting, color-coded sections, and real-time updates.
Ideal for traders using straddles, strangles, intraday volatility models, range-bound setups, and options-based risk management.
1.2x expanded range is better success probability, may keep 20% of strangle value as stop loss.
The vix based system is intended to give approx. 70%+ success rate.
Historical Matrix Analyzer [PhenLabs]📊Historical Matrix Analyzer
Version: PineScriptv6
📌Description
The Historical Matrix Analyzer is an advanced probabilistic trading tool that transforms technical analysis into a data-driven decision support system. By creating a comprehensive 56-cell matrix that tracks every combination of RSI states and multi-indicator conditions, this indicator reveals which market patterns have historically led to profitable outcomes and which have not.
At its core, the indicator continuously monitors seven distinct RSI states (ranging from Extreme Oversold to Extreme Overbought) and eight unique indicator combinations (MACD direction, volume levels, and price momentum). For each of these 56 possible market states, the system calculates average forward returns, win rates, and occurrence counts based on your configurable lookback period. The result is a color-coded probability matrix that shows you exactly where you stand in the historical performance landscape.
The standout feature is the Current State Panel, which provides instant clarity on your active market conditions. This panel displays signal strength classifications (from Strong Bullish to Strong Bearish), the average return percentage for similar past occurrences, an estimated win rate using Bayesian smoothing to prevent small-sample distortions, and a confidence level indicator that warns you when insufficient data exists for reliable conclusions.
🚀Points of Innovation
Multi-dimensional state classification combining 7 RSI levels with 8 indicator combinations for 56 unique trackable market conditions
Bayesian win rate estimation with adjustable smoothing strength to provide stable probability estimates even with limited historical samples
Real-time active cell highlighting with “NOW” marker that visually connects current market conditions to their historical performance data
Configurable color intensity sensitivity allowing traders to adjust heat-map responsiveness from conservative to aggressive visual feedback
Dual-panel display system separating the comprehensive statistics matrix from an easy-to-read current state summary panel
Intelligent confidence scoring that automatically warns traders when occurrence counts fall below reliable thresholds
🔧Core Components
RSI State Classification: Segments RSI readings into 7 distinct zones (Extreme Oversold <20, Oversold 20-30, Weak 30-40, Neutral 40-60, Strong 60-70, Overbought 70-80, Extreme Overbought >80) to capture momentum extremes and transitions
Multi-Indicator Condition Tracking: Simultaneously monitors MACD crossover status (bullish/bearish), volume relative to moving average (high/low), and price direction (rising/falling) creating 8 binary-encoded combinations
Historical Data Storage Arrays: Maintains rolling lookback windows storing RSI states, indicator states, prices, and bar indices for precise forward-return calculations
Forward Performance Calculator: Measures price changes over configurable forward bar periods (1-20 bars) from each historical state, accumulating total returns and win counts per matrix cell
Bayesian Smoothing Engine: Applies statistical prior assumptions (default 50% win rate) weighted by user-defined strength parameter to stabilize estimated win rates when sample sizes are small
Dynamic Color Mapping System: Converts average returns into color-coded heat map with intensity adjusted by sensitivity parameter and transparency modified by confidence levels
🔥Key Features
56-Cell Probability Matrix: Comprehensive grid displaying every possible combination of RSI state and indicator condition, with each cell showing average return percentage, estimated win rate, and occurrence count for complete statistical visibility
Current State Info Panel: Dedicated display showing your exact position in the matrix with signal strength emoji indicators, numerical statistics, and color-coded confidence warnings for immediate situational awareness
Customizable Lookback Period: Adjustable historical window from 50 to 500 bars allowing traders to focus on recent market behavior or capture longer-term pattern stability across different market cycles
Configurable Forward Performance Window: Select target holding periods from 1 to 20 bars ahead to align probability calculations with your trading timeframe, whether day trading or swing trading
Visual Heat Mapping: Color-coded cells transition from red (bearish historical performance) through gray (neutral) to green (bullish performance) with intensity reflecting statistical significance and occurrence frequency
Intelligent Data Filtering: Minimum occurrence threshold (1-10) removes unreliable patterns with insufficient historical samples, displaying gray warning colors for low-confidence cells
Flexible Layout Options: Independent positioning of statistics matrix and info panel to any screen corner, accommodating different chart layouts and personal preferences
Tooltip Details: Hover over any matrix cell to see full RSI label, complete indicator status description, precise average return, estimated win rate, and total occurrence count
🎨Visualization
Statistics Matrix Table: A 9-column by 8-row grid with RSI states labeling vertical axis and indicator combinations on horizontal axis, using compact abbreviations (XOverS, OverB, MACD↑, Vol↓, P↑) for space efficiency
Active Cell Indicator: The current market state cell displays “⦿ NOW ⦿” in yellow text with enhanced color saturation to immediately draw attention to relevant historical performance
Signal Strength Visualization: Info panel uses emoji indicators (🔥 Strong Bullish, ✅ Bullish, ↗️ Weak Bullish, ➖ Neutral, ↘️ Weak Bearish, ⛔ Bearish, ❄️ Strong Bearish, ⚠️ Insufficient Data) for rapid interpretation
Histogram Plot: Below the price chart, a green/red histogram displays the current cell’s average return percentage, providing a time-series view of how historical performance changes as market conditions evolve
Color Intensity Scaling: Cell background transparency and saturation dynamically adjust based on both the magnitude of average returns and the occurrence count, ensuring visual emphasis on reliable patterns
Confidence Level Display: Info panel bottom row shows “High Confidence” (green), “Medium Confidence” (orange), or “Low Confidence” (red) based on occurrence counts relative to minimum threshold multipliers
📖Usage Guidelines
RSI Period
Default: 14
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Controls the lookback period for RSI momentum calculation. Standard 14-period provides widely-recognized overbought/oversold levels. Decrease for faster, more sensitive RSI reactions suitable for scalping. Increase (21, 28) for smoother, longer-term momentum assessment in swing trading. Changes affect how quickly the indicator moves between the 7 RSI state classifications.
MACD Fast Length
Default: 12
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Sets the faster exponential moving average for MACD calculation. Standard 12-period setting works well for daily charts and captures short-term momentum shifts. Decreasing creates more responsive MACD crossovers but increases false signals. Increasing smooths out noise but delays signal generation, affecting the bullish/bearish indicator state classification.
MACD Slow Length
Default: 26
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Defines the slower exponential moving average for MACD calculation. Traditional 26-period setting balances trend identification with responsiveness. Must be greater than Fast Length. Wider spread between fast and slow increases MACD sensitivity to trend changes, impacting the frequency of indicator state transitions in the matrix.
MACD Signal Length
Default: 9
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Smoothing period for the MACD signal line that triggers bullish/bearish state changes. Standard 9-period provides reliable crossover signals. Shorter values create more frequent state changes and earlier signals but with more whipsaws. Longer values produce more confirmed, stable signals but with increased lag in detecting momentum shifts.
Volume MA Period
Default: 20
Range: 1 to unlimited
Description: Lookback period for volume moving average used to classify volume as “high” or “low” in indicator state combinations. 20-period default captures typical monthly trading patterns. Shorter periods (10-15) make volume classification more reactive to recent spikes. Longer periods (30-50) require more sustained volume changes to trigger state classification shifts.
Statistics Lookback Period
Default: 200
Range: 50 to 500
Description: Number of historical bars used to calculate matrix statistics. 200 bars provides substantial data for reliable patterns while remaining responsive to regime changes. Lower values (50-100) emphasize recent market behavior and adapt quickly but may produce volatile statistics. Higher values (300-500) capture long-term patterns with stable statistics but slower adaptation to changing market dynamics.
Forward Performance Bars
Default: 5
Range: 1 to 20
Description: Number of bars ahead used to calculate forward returns from each historical state occurrence. 5-bar default suits intraday to short-term swing trading (5 hours on hourly charts, 1 week on daily charts). Lower values (1-3) target short-term momentum trades. Higher values (10-20) align with position trading and longer-term pattern exploitation.
Color Intensity Sensitivity
Default: 2.0
Range: 0.5 to 5.0, step 0.5
Description: Amplifies or dampens the color intensity response to average return magnitudes in the matrix heat map. 2.0 default provides balanced visual emphasis. Lower values (0.5-1.0) create subtle coloring requiring larger returns for full saturation, useful for volatile instruments. Higher values (3.0-5.0) produce vivid colors from smaller returns, highlighting subtle edges in range-bound markets.
Minimum Occurrences for Coloring
Default: 3
Range: 1 to 10
Description: Required minimum sample size before applying color-coded performance to matrix cells. Cells with fewer occurrences display gray “insufficient data” warning. 3-occurrence default filters out rare patterns. Lower threshold (1-2) shows more data but includes unreliable single-event statistics. Higher thresholds (5-10) ensure only well-established patterns receive visual emphasis.
Table Position
Default: top_right
Options: top_left, top_right, bottom_left, bottom_right
Description: Screen location for the 56-cell statistics matrix table. Position to avoid overlapping critical price action or other indicators on your chart. Consider chart orientation and candlestick density when selecting optimal placement.
Show Current State Panel
Default: true
Options: true, false
Description: Toggle visibility of the dedicated current state information panel. When enabled, displays signal strength, RSI value, indicator status, average return, estimated win rate, and confidence level for active market conditions. Disable to declutter charts when only the matrix table is needed.
Info Panel Position
Default: bottom_left
Options: top_left, top_right, bottom_left, bottom_right
Description: Screen location for the current state information panel (when enabled). Position independently from statistics matrix to optimize chart real estate. Typically placed opposite the matrix table for balanced visual layout.
Win Rate Smoothing Strength
Default: 5
Range: 1 to 20
Description: Controls Bayesian prior weighting for estimated win rate calculations. Acts as virtual sample size assuming 50% win rate baseline. Default 5 provides moderate smoothing preventing extreme win rate estimates from small samples. Lower values (1-3) reduce smoothing effect, allowing win rates to reflect raw data more directly. Higher values (10-20) increase conservatism, pulling win rate estimates toward 50% until substantial evidence accumulates.
✅Best Use Cases
Pattern-based discretionary trading where you want historical confirmation before entering setups that “look good” based on current technical alignment
Swing trading with holding periods matching your forward performance bar setting, using high-confidence bullish cells as entry filters
Risk assessment and position sizing, allocating larger size to trades originating from cells with strong positive average returns and high estimated win rates
Market regime identification by observing which RSI states and indicator combinations are currently producing the most reliable historical patterns
Backtesting validation by comparing your manual strategy signals against the historical performance of the corresponding matrix cells
Educational tool for developing intuition about which technical condition combinations have actually worked versus those that feel right but lack historical evidence
⚠️Limitations
Historical patterns do not guarantee future performance, especially during unprecedented market events or regime changes not represented in the lookback period
Small sample sizes (low occurrence counts) produce unreliable statistics despite Bayesian smoothing, requiring caution when acting on low-confidence cells
Matrix statistics lag behind rapidly changing market conditions, as the lookback period must accumulate new state occurrences before updating performance data
Forward return calculations use fixed bar periods that may not align with actual trade exit timing, support/resistance levels, or volatility-adjusted profit targets
💡What Makes This Unique
Multi-Dimensional State Space: Unlike single-indicator tools, simultaneously tracks 56 distinct market condition combinations providing granular pattern resolution unavailable in traditional technical analysis
Bayesian Statistical Rigor: Implements proper probabilistic smoothing to prevent overconfidence from limited data, a critical feature missing from most pattern recognition tools
Real-Time Contextual Feedback: The “NOW” marker and dedicated info panel instantly connect current market conditions to their historical performance profile, eliminating guesswork
Transparent Occurrence Counts: Displays sample sizes directly in each cell, allowing traders to judge statistical reliability themselves rather than hiding data quality issues
Fully Customizable Analysis Window: Complete control over lookback depth and forward return horizons lets traders align the tool precisely with their trading timeframe and strategy requirements
🔬How It Works
1. State Classification and Encoding
Each bar’s RSI value is evaluated and assigned to one of 7 discrete states based on threshold levels (0: <20, 1: 20-30, 2: 30-40, 3: 40-60, 4: 60-70, 5: 70-80, 6: >80)
Simultaneously, three binary conditions are evaluated: MACD line position relative to signal line, current volume relative to its moving average, and current close relative to previous close
These three binary conditions are combined into a single indicator state integer (0-7) using binary encoding, creating 8 possible indicator combinations
The RSI state and indicator state are stored together, defining one of 56 possible market condition cells in the matrix
2. Historical Data Accumulation
As each bar completes, the current state classification, closing price, and bar index are stored in rolling arrays maintained at the size specified by the lookback period
When the arrays reach capacity, the oldest data point is removed and the newest added, creating a sliding historical window
This continuous process builds a comprehensive database of past market conditions and their subsequent price movements
3. Forward Return Calculation and Statistics Update
On each bar, the indicator looks back through the stored historical data to find bars where sufficient forward bars exist to measure outcomes
For each historical occurrence, the price change from that bar to the bar N periods ahead (where N is the forward performance bars setting) is calculated as a percentage return
This percentage return is added to the cumulative return total for the specific matrix cell corresponding to that historical bar’s state classification
Occurrence counts are incremented, and wins are tallied for positive returns, building comprehensive statistics for each of the 56 cells
The Bayesian smoothing formula combines these raw statistics with prior assumptions (neutral 50% win rate) weighted by the smoothing strength parameter to produce estimated win rates that remain stable even with small samples
💡Note:
The Historical Matrix Analyzer is designed as a decision support tool, not a standalone trading system. Best results come from using it to validate discretionary trade ideas or filter systematic strategy signals. Always combine matrix insights with proper risk management, position sizing rules, and awareness of broader market context. The estimated win rate feature uses Bayesian statistics specifically to prevent false confidence from limited data, but no amount of smoothing can create reliable predictions from fundamentally insufficient sample sizes. Focus on high-confidence cells (green-colored confidence indicators) with occurrence counts well above your minimum threshold for the most actionable insights.
Expected Value Monte CarloI created this indicator after noticing that there was no Expected Value indicator here on TradingView.
The EVMC provides statistical Expected Value to what might happen in the future regarding the asset you are analyzing.
It uses 2 quantitative methods:
Historical Backtest to ground your analysis in long-term, factual data.
Monte Carlo Simulation to project a cone of probable future outcomes based on recent market behavior.
This gives you a data-driven edge to quantify risk, and make more informed trading decisions.
The indicator includes:
Dual analysis: Combines historical probability with forward-looking simulation.
Quantified projections: Provides the Expected Value ($ and %), Win Rate, and Sharpe Ratio for both methods.
Asset-aware: Automatically adjusts its calculations for Stocks (252 trading days) and Crypto (365 days) for mathematical accuracy.
The projection cone shows the mean expected path and the +/- 1 standard deviation range of outcomes.
No repainting
Calculation:
1. Historical Expected Value:
This is a systematic backtest over thousands of bars. It calculates the return Rᵢ for N past trades (buy-and-hold). The Historical EV is the simple average of these returns, giving a baseline performance measure.
Historical EV % = (Σ Rᵢ) / N
2. Monte Carlo Projection:
This projection uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to simulate thousands of future price paths based on the market's recent behavior.
It first measures the drift (μ), or recent trend, and volatility (σ), or recent risk, from the Projection Lookback period. It then projects a final return for each simulation using the core GBM formula:
Projected Return = exp( (μ - σ²/2)T + σ√T * Z ) - 1
(Where T is the time horizon and Z is a random variable for the simulation.)
The purple line on the chart is the average of all simulated outcomes (the Monte Carlo EV). The cone represents one standard deviation of those outcomes.
The dashed lines represent one standard deviation (+/- 1σ) from the average, forming a cone of probable outcomes. Roughly 68% of the simulated paths ended within this cone.
This projection answers the question: "If the recent trend and volatility continue, where is the price most likely to go?"
Here's how to read the indicator
Expected Value ($/%): Is my average trade profitable?
Win Rate: How often can I expect to be right?
Sharpe Ratio: Am I being adequately compensated for the risk I'm taking?
User Guide
Max trade duration (bars): This is your analysis timeframe. Are you interested in the probable outcome over the next month (21 bars), quarter (63 bars), or year (252 bars)?
Position size ($): Set this to your typical trade size to see the Expected Value in real dollar terms.
Projection lookback (bars): This is the most important input for the Monte Carlo model. A short lookback (e.g., 50) makes the projection highly sensitive to recent momentum. Use this to identify potential recency bias. A long lookback (e.g., 252) provides a more stable, long-term projection of trend and volatility.
Historical Lookback (bars): For the historical backtest, more data is always better. Use the maximum that your TradingView plan allows for the most statistically significant results.
Use TP/SL for Historical EV: Check this box to see how the historical performance would have changed if you had used a simple Take Profit and Stop Loss, rather than just holding for the full duration.
I hope you find this indicator useful and please let me know if you have any suggestions. 😊
Bollinger Heatmap [Quantitative]Overview
The Bollinger Heatmap is a composite indicator that synthesizes data derived from 30 Bollinger bands distributed over multiple time horizons, offering a high-dimensional characterization of the underlying asset.
Algorithm
The algorithm quantifies the current price’s relative position within each Bollinger band ensemble, generating a normalized position ratio. This ratio is subsequently transformed into a scalar heat value, which is then rendered on a continuous color gradient from red to blue. Red hues correspond to price proximity to or extension below the lower band, while blue hues denote price proximity to or extension above the upper band.
Using default parameters, the indicator maps bands over timeframes increasing in a pattern approximating exponential growth, constrained to multiples of seven days. The lower region encodes relationships with shorter-term bands spanning between 1 and 14 weeks, whereas the upper region portrays interactions with longer-term bands ranging from 15 to 52 weeks.
Conclusion
By integrating Bollinger bands across a diverse array of time horizons, the heatmap indicator aims to mitigate the model risk inherent in selecting a single band length, capturing exposure across a richer parameter space.
PRO Investing - Quant AlphaCentauri D |XLF|PRO Investing - Quant AlphaCentauri D |XLF|
1. Summary and Core Concept
This is a quantitative backtesting strategy engineered specifically for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) on the Daily (1D) timeframe. The name "AlphaCentauri" reflects its goal: to seek alpha by identifying statistically significant opportunities through rigorous time series analysis.
The strategy's core principle is to move beyond conventional technical indicators and instead analyze the underlying structure and character of price data. It is designed to methodically identify conditions that have historically preceded sustained directional trends in the financial sector.
2. The Analytical Process: How It Works
This strategy employs a multi-stage quantitative process to filter for high-probability setups. It is a "mashup" of statistical concepts applied to price action.
Structural Pattern Recognition: The engine's primary function is to analyze the historical price series of XLF to identify specific, recurring structural patterns. It examines price geometry and cyclical behavior to find formations that often act as the foundation for a new, emerging trend.
Signal Execution: A signal to enter a trade is only generated when the findings from both the structural analysis and the validation stages are in agreement. This disciplined, multi-layered approach ensures the strategy remains flat during periods of high uncertainty and only engages when its quantitative criteria are fully met.
3. How to Use This Strategy
Timeframe: This strategy has been designed, tested, and optimized exclusively for the Daily (1D) timeframe on the XLF ticker. Its logic is not intended for other timeframes or assets and may produce unreliable results if used differently.
On-Chart Signals: The strategy's operation is transparent. It plots all historical buy and sell entries, along with their corresponding exits, directly on the chart for easy performance review and analysis.
4. Risk Management: The Strategy's Foundation
This strategy is built upon a foundation of strict, non-negotiable risk management, which is reflected in its code and backtesting parameters. This design complies with TradingView's guidelines for publishing realistic and responsible strategies.
Dynamic Stop-Loss and Position Sizing: A stop-loss is dynamically calculated for each trade based on recent market volatility. The strategy then automatically adjusts the position size for that trade to target a defined risk percentage. In cases of extreme market volatility, the maximum potential loss on a single trade may approach, but is designed not to exceed, 5% of total account equity. Under normal market conditions, the risk for most trades will be below this maximum threshold.
Realistic Backtesting Parameters:
Initial Capital: The backtest defaults to an initial capital of $100,000.
Commission: A realistic fee of $5.00 per order is included to simulate broker costs.
5. Disclaimer
This strategy is an educational tool provided for informational and research purposes. It is not financial advice. All trading carries a high level of risk, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions and risk management. Always conduct your own due diligence before deploying any trading strategy in a live account.
CNN Statistical Trading System [PhenLabs]📌 DESCRIPTION
An advanced pattern recognition system utilizing Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) principles to identify statistically significant market patterns and generate high-probability trading signals.
CNN Statistical Trading System transforms traditional technical analysis by applying machine learning concepts directly to price action. Through six specialized convolution kernels, it detects momentum shifts, reversal patterns, consolidation phases, and breakout setups simultaneously. The system combines these pattern detections using adaptive weighting based on market volatility and trend strength, creating a sophisticated composite score that provides both directional bias and signal confidence on a normalized -1 to +1 scale.
🚀 CONCEPTS
• Built on Convolutional Neural Network pattern recognition methodology adapted for financial markets
• Six specialized kernels detect distinct price patterns: upward/downward momentum, peak/trough formations, consolidation, and breakout setups
• Activation functions create non-linear responses with tanh-like behavior, mimicking neural network layers
• Adaptive weighting system adjusts pattern importance based on current market regime (volatility < 2% and trend strength)
• Multi-confirmation signals require CNN threshold breach (±0.65), RSI boundaries, and volume confirmation above 120% of 20-period average
🔧 FEATURES
Six-Kernel Pattern Detection:
Simultaneous analysis of upward momentum, downward momentum, peak/resistance, trough/support, consolidation, and breakout patterns using mathematically optimized convolution kernels.
Adaptive Neural Architecture:
Dynamic weight adjustment based on market volatility (ATR/Price) and trend strength (EMA differential), ensuring optimal performance across different market conditions.
Professional Visual Themes:
Four sophisticated color palettes (Professional, Ocean, Sunset, Monochrome) with cohesive design language. Default Monochrome theme provides clean, distraction-free analysis.
Confidence Band System:
Upper and lower confidence zones at 150% of threshold values (±0.975) help identify high-probability signal areas and potential exhaustion zones.
Real-Time Information Panel:
Live display of CNN score, market state with emoji indicators, net momentum, confidence percentage, and RSI confirmation with dynamic color coding based on signal strength.
Individual Feature Analysis:
Optional display of all six kernel outputs with distinct visual styles (step lines, circles, crosses, area fills) for advanced pattern component analysis.
User Guide
• Monitor CNN Score crossing above +0.65 for long signals or below -0.65 for short signals with volume confirmation
• Use confidence bands to identify optimal entry zones - signals within confidence bands carry higher probability
• Background intensity reflects signal strength - darker backgrounds indicate stronger conviction
• Enter long positions when blue circles appear above oscillator with RSI < 75 and volume > 120% average
• Enter short positions when dark circles appear below oscillator with RSI > 25 and volume confirmation
• Information panel provides real-time confidence percentage and momentum direction for position sizing decisions
• Individual feature plots allow granular analysis of specific pattern components for strategy refinement
💡Conclusion
CNN Statistical Trading System represents the evolution of technical analysis, combining institutional-grade pattern recognition with retail accessibility. The six-kernel architecture provides comprehensive market pattern coverage while adaptive weighting ensures relevance across all market conditions. Whether you’re seeking systematic entry signals or advanced pattern confirmation, this indicator delivers mathematically rigorous analysis with intuitive visual presentation.
Anchored Probability Cone by TenozenFirst of all, credit to @nasu_is_gaji for the open source code of Log-Normal Price Forecast! He teaches me alot on how to use polylines and inverse normal distribution from his indicator, so check it out!
What is this indicator all about?
This indicator draws a probability cone that visualizes possible future price ranges with varying levels of statistical confidence using Inverse Normal Distribution , anchored to the start of a selected timeframe (4h, W, M, etc.)
Feutures:
Anchored Cone: Forecasts begin at the first bar of each chosen higher timeframe, offering a consistent point for analysis.
Drift & Volatility-Based Forecast: Uses log returns to estimate market volatility (smoothed using VWMA) and incorporates a trend angle that users can set manually.
Probabilistic Price Bands: Displays price ranges with 5 customizable confidence levels (e.g., 30%, 68%, 87%, 99%, 99,9%).
Dynamic Updating: Recalculates and redraws the cone at the start of each new anchor period.
How to use:
Choose the Anchored Timeframe (PineScript only be able to forecast 500 bars in the future, so if it doesn't plot, try adjusting to a lower anchored period).
You can set the Model Length, 100 sample is the default. The higher the sample size, the higher the bias towards the overall volatility. So better set the sample size in a balanced manner.
If the market is inside the 30% conifidence zone (gray color), most likely the market is sideways. If it's outside the 30% confidence zone, that means it would tend to trend and reach the other probability levels.
Always follow the trend, don't ever try to trade mean reversions if you don't know what you're doing, as mean reversion trades are riskier.
That's all guys! I hope this indicator helps! If there's any suggestions, I'm open for it! Thanks and goodluck on your trading journey!
FA Dashboard: Valuation, Profitability & SolvencyFundamental Analysis Dashboard: A Multi-Dimensional View of Company Quality
This script presents a structured and customizable dashboard for evaluating a company’s fundamentals across three key dimensions: Valuation, Profitability, and Solvency & Liquidity.
Unlike basic fundamental overlays, this dashboard consolidates multiple financial indicators into visual tables that update dynamically and are grouped by category. Each ratio is compared against configurable thresholds, helping traders quickly assess whether a company meets certain value investing criteria. The tables use color-coded checkmarks and fail marks (✔️ / ❌) to visually signal pass/fail evaluations.
▶️ Key Features
Valuation Ratios:
Earnings Yield: EBIT / EV
EV / EBIT and EV / FCF: Enterprise value metrics for profitability
Price-to-Book, Free Cash Flow Yield, PEG Ratio
Profitability Ratios:
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), ROE, Operating, Net & Gross Margins, Revenue Growth
Solvency & Liquidity Ratios:
Debt to Equity, Debt to EBITDA, Current Ratio, Quick Ratio, Altman Z-Score
Each of these metrics is calculated using request.financial() and can be viewed using either annual (FY) or quarterly (FQ) data, depending on user preference.
🧠 How to Use
Add the script to any stock chart.
Select your preferred data period (FY or FQ).
Adjust thresholds if desired to match your personal investing strategy.
Review the visual dashboard to see which metrics the company passes or fails.
💡 Why It’s Useful
This tool is ideal for traders or long-term investors looking to filter stocks using fundamental criteria. It draws inspiration from principles used by Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, and Joel Greenblatt, offering a fast and informative way to screen quality businesses.
This is not a repackaged built-in or autogenerated script. It’s a custom-built, interactive tool tailored for fundamental analysis using official financial data provided via Pine Script’s request.financial().
Quantify [Trading Model] | FractalystNote: In this description, "TM" refers to Trading Model (not trademark) and "EM" refers to Entry Model
What’s the indicator’s purpose and functionality?
You know how to identify market bias but always struggle with figuring out the best exit method, or even hesitating to take your trades?
I've been there. That's why I built this solution—once and for all—to help traders who know the market bias but need a systematic and quantitative approach for their entries and trade management.
A model that shows you real-time market probabilities and insights, so you can focus on execution with confidence—not doubt or FOMO.
How does this Quantify differentiate from Quantify ?
Have you managed to code or even found an indicator that identifies the market bias for you, so you don’t have to manually spend time analyzing the market and trend?
Then that’s exactly why you might need the Quantify Trading Model.
With the Trading Model (TM) version, the script automatically uses your given bias identification method to determine the trend (bull vs bear and neutral), detect the bias, and provide instant insight into the trades you could’ve taken.
To avoid complications from consecutive signals, it uses a kNN machine learning algorithm that processes market structure and probabilities to predict the best future patterns.
(You don’t have to deal with any complexity—it’s all taken care of for you.)
Quantify TM uses the k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) machine learning algorithm to learn from historical market patterns and adapt to changing market structures. This means it can recognize similar market conditions from the past and apply those lessons to current trading decisions.
On the other hand, Quantify EM requires you to manually select your directional bias. It then focuses solely on generating entry signals based on that pre-determined bias.
While the entry model version (EM) uses your manual bias selection to determine the trend, it then provides insights into trades you could’ve taken and should be taking.
Trading Model (TM)
- Uses `input.source()` to incorporate your personal methodology for identifying market bias
- Automates everything—from bias detection to entry and exit decisions
- Adapts to market bias changes through kNN machine learning optimization
- Reduces human intervention in trading decisions, limiting emotional interference
Entry Model (EM)
- Focuses specifically on optimizing entry points within your pre-selected directional bias
- Requires manual input for determining market bias
- Provides entry signals without automating alerts or bias rules
Can the indicator be applied to any market approach/trading strategy?
Yes, if you have clear rules for identifying the market bias, then you can code your bias detection and then use the input.source() user input to retrieve the direction from your own indicator, then the Quantify uses machine-learning identify the best setups for you.
Here's an example:
//@version=6
indicator('Moving Averages Bias', overlay = true)
// Input lengths for moving averages
ma10_length = input.int(10, title = 'MA 10 Length')
ma20_length = input.int(20, title = 'MA 20 Length')
ma50_length = input.int(50, title = 'MA 50 Length')
// Calculate moving averages
ma10 = ta.sma(close, ma10_length)
ma20 = ta.sma(close, ma20_length)
ma50 = ta.sma(close, ma50_length)
// Identify bias
var bias = 0
if close > ma10 and close > ma20 and close > ma50 and ma10 > ma20 and ma20 > ma50
bias := 1 // Bullish
bias
else if close < ma10 and close < ma20 and close < ma50 and ma10 < ma20 and ma20 < ma50
bias := -1 // Bearish
bias
else
bias := 0 // Neutral
bias
// Plot the bias
plot(bias, title = 'Identified Bias', color = color.blue,display = display.none)
Once you've created your custom bias indicator, you can integrate it with Quantify :
- Add your bias indicator to your chart
- Open the Quantify settings
- Set the Bias option to "Auto"
- Select your custom indicator as the bias source
The machine learning algorithms will then analyze historical price action and identify optimal setups based on your defined bias parameters. Performance statistics are displayed in summary tables, allowing you to evaluate effectiveness across different timeframes.
Can the indicator be used for different timeframes or trading styles?
Yes, regardless of the timeframe you’d like to take your entries, the indicator adapts to your trading style.
Whether you’re a swing trader, scalper, or even a position trader, the algorithm dynamically evaluates market conditions across your chosen timeframe.
How Quantify Helps You Trade Profitably?
The Quantify Trading Model offers several powerful features that can significantly improve your trading profitability when used correctly:
Real-Time Edge Assessment
It displays real-time probability of price moving in your favor versus hitting your stoploss
This gives you immediate insight into risk/reward dynamics before entering trades
You can make more informed decisions by knowing the statistical likelihood of success
Historical Edge Validation
Instantly shows whether your trading approach has demonstrated an edge in historical data
Prevents you from trading setups that historically haven't performed well
Gives confidence when entering trades that have proven statistical advantages
Optimized Position Sizing
Analyzes each setup's success rate to determine the adjusted Kelly criterion formula
Customizes position sizing based on your selected maximum drawdown tolerance
Helps prevent account-destroying losses while maximizing growth potential
Advanced Exit Management
Utilizes market structure-based trailing stop-loss mechanisms
Maximizes the average risk-reward ratio profit per winning trade
Helps capture larger moves while protecting gains during market reversals
Emotional Discipline Enforcement
Eliminates emotional bias by adhering to your pre-defined rules for market direction
Prevents impulsive decisions by providing objective entry and exit signals
Creates psychological distance between your emotions and trading decisions
Overtrading Prevention
Highlights only setups that demonstrate positive expectancy
Reduces frequency of low-probability trades
Conserves capital for higher-quality opportunities
Systematic Approach Benefits
By combining machine learning algorithms with your personal bias identification methods, Quantify helps transform discretionary trading approaches into more systematic, probability-based strategies.
What Entry Models are used in Quantify Trading Model version?
The Quantify Trading Model utilizes two primary entry models to identify high-probability trade setups:
Breakout Entry Model
- Identifies potential trade entries when price breaks through significant swing highs and swing lows
- Captures momentum as price moves beyond established trading ranges
- Particularly effective in trending markets when combined with the appropriate bias detection
- Optimized by machine learning to filter false breakouts based on historical performance
Fractals Entry Model
- Utilizes fractal patterns to identify potential reversal or continuation points
- Also uses swing levels to determine optimal entry locations
- Based on the concept that market structure repeats across different timeframes
- Identifies local highs and lows that form natural entry points
- Enhanced by machine learning to recognize the most profitable fractal formations
- These entry models work in conjunction with your custom bias indicator to ensure trades are taken in the direction of the overall market trend. The machine learning component analyzes historical performance of these entry types across different market conditions to optimize entry timing and signal quality.
How Does This Indicator Identify Market Structure?
1. Swing Detection
• The indicator identifies key swing points on the chart. These are local highs or lows where the price reverses direction, forming the foundation of market structure.
2. Structural Break Validation
• A structural break is flagged when a candle closes above a previous swing high (bullish) or below a previous swing low (bearish).
• Break Confirmation Process:
To confirm the break, the indicator applies the following rules:
• Valid Swing Preceding the Break: There must be at least one valid swing point before the break.
3. Numeric Labeling
• Each confirmed structural break is assigned a unique numeric ID starting from 1.
• This helps traders track breaks sequentially and analyze how the market structure evolves over time.
4. Liquidity and Invalidation Zones
• For every confirmed structural break, the indicator highlights two critical zones:
1. Liquidity Zone (LIQ): Represents the structural liquidity level.
2. Invalidation Zone (INV): Acts as Invalidation point if the structure fails to hold.
How does the trailing stop-loss work? what are the underlying calculations?
A trailing stoploss is a dynamic risk management tool that moves with the price as the market trend continues in the trader’s favor. Unlike a fixed take profit, which stays at a set level, the trailing stoploss automatically adjusts itself as the market moves, locking in profits as the price advances.
In Quantify, the trailing stoploss is enhanced by incorporating market structure liquidity levels (explain above). This ensures that the stoploss adjusts intelligently based on key price levels, allowing the trader to stay in the trade as long as the trend remains intact, while also protecting profits if the market reverses.
What is the Kelly Criterion, and how does it work in Quantify?
The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal position size for each trade, maximizing long-term growth while minimizing the risk of large drawdowns. It calculates the percentage of your portfolio to risk on a trade based on the probability of winning and the expected payoff.
Quantify integrates this with user-defined inputs to dynamically calculate the most effective position size in percentage, aligning with the trader’s risk tolerance and desired exposure.
How does Quantify use the Kelly Criterion in practice?
Quantify uses the Kelly Criterion to optimize position sizing based on the following factors:
1. Confidence Level: The model assesses the confidence level in the trade setup based on historical data and sample size. A higher confidence level increases the suggested position size because the trade has a higher probability of success.
2. Max Allowed Drawdown (User-Defined): Traders can set their preferred maximum allowed drawdown, which dictates how much loss is acceptable before reducing position size or stopping trading. Quantify uses this input to ensure that risk exposure aligns with the trader’s risk tolerance.
3. Probabilities: Quantify calculates the probabilities of success for each trade setup. The higher the probability of a successful trade (based on historical price action and liquidity levels), the larger the position size suggested by the Kelly Criterion.
How can I get started to use the indicator?
1. Set Your Market Bias
• Choose Auto.
• Select the source you want Quantify to use as for bias identification method (explained above)
2. Choose Your Entry Timeframes
• Specify the timeframes you want to focus on for trade entries.
• The indicator will dynamically analyze these timeframes to provide optimal setups.
3. Choose Your Entry Model and BE/TP Levels
• Choose a model that suits your personality
• Choose a level where you'd like the script to take profit or move stop-loss to BE
4. Set and activate the alerts
What tables are used in the Quantify?
• Quarterly
• Monthly
• Weekly
Terms and Conditions | Disclaimer
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. They are not intended to forecast market movements or offer specific recommendations. Users should understand that past performance does not guarantee future results and should not base financial decisions solely on historical data.
Built-in components, features, and functionalities of our charting tools are the intellectual property of @Fractalyst Unauthorized use, reproduction, or distribution of these proprietary elements is prohibited.
- By continuing to use our charting tools, the user acknowledges and accepts the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer and agrees to respect our intellectual property rights and comply with all applicable laws and regulations.
Auto-Adjusting Kalman Filter by TenozenNew year, new indicator! Auto-Adjusting Kalman Filter is an indicator designed to provide an adaptive approach to trend analysis. Using the Kalman Filter (a recursive algorithm used in signal processing), this algo dynamically adjusts to market conditions, offering traders a reliable way to identify trends and manage risk! In other words, it's a remaster of my previous indicator, Kalman Filter by Tenozen.
What's the difference with the previous indicator (Kalman Filter by Tenozen)?
The indicator adjusts its parameters (Q and R) in real-time using the Average True Range (ATR) as a measure of market volatility. This ensures the filter remains responsive during high-volatility periods and smooth during low-volatility conditions, optimizing its performance across different market environments.
The filter resets on a user-defined timeframe, aligning its calculations with dominant trends and reducing sensitivity to short-term noise. This helps maintain consistency with the broader market structure.
A confidence metric, derived from the deviation of price from the Kalman filter line (measured in ATR multiples), is visualized as a heatmap:
Green : Bullish confidence (higher values indicate stronger trends).
Red : Bearish confidence (higher values indicate stronger trends).
Gray : Neutral zone (low confidence, suggesting caution).
This provides a clear, objective measure of trend strength.
How it works?
The Kalman Filter estimates the "true" price by filtering out market noise. It operates in two steps, that is, prediction and update. Prediction is about projection the current state (price) forward. Update is about adjusting the prediction based on the latest price data. The filter's parameters (Q and R) are scaled using normalized ATR, ensuring adaptibility to changing market conditions. So it means that, Q (Process Noise) increases during high volatility, making the filter more responsive to price changes and R (Measurement Noise) increases during low volatility, smoothing out the filter to avoid overreacting to minor fluctuations. Also, the trend confidence is calculated based on the deviation of price from the Kalman filter line, measured in ATR multiples, this provides a quantifiable measure of trend strength, helping traders assess market conditions objectively.
How to use?
Use the Kalman Filter line to identify the prevailing trend direction. Trade in alignment with the filter's slope for higher-probability setups.
Look for pullbacks toward the Kalman Filter line during strong trends (high confidence zones)
Utilize the dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risk and lock in profits
Confidence Heatmap provides an objective measure of market sentiment, helping traders avoid low-confidence (neutral) zones and focus on high-probability opportunities
Guess that's it! I hope this indicator helps! Let me know if you guys got some feedback! Ciao!
Z-Score RSI StrategyOverview
The Z-Score RSI Indicator is an experimental take on momentum analysis. By applying the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a Z-score of price data, it measures how far prices deviate from their mean, scaled by standard deviation. This isn’t your traditional use of RSI, which is typically based on price data alone. Nevertheless, this unconventional approach can yield unique insights into market trends and potential reversals.
Theory and Interpretation
The RSI calculates the balance between average gains and losses over a set period, outputting values from 0 to 100. Typically, people look at the overbought or oversold levels to identify momentum extremes that might be likely to lead to a reversal. However, I’ve often found that RSI can be effective for trend-following when observing the crossover of its moving average with the midline or the crossover of the RSI with its own moving average. These crossovers can provide useful trend signals in various market conditions.
By combining RSI with a Z-score of price, this indicator estimates the relative strength of the price’s distance from its mean. Positive Z-score trends may signal a potential for higher-than-average prices in the near future (scaled by the standard deviation), while negative trends suggest the opposite. Essentially, when the Z-Score RSI indicates a trend, it reflects that the Z-score (the distance between the average and current price) is likely to continue moving in the trend’s direction. Generally, this signals a potential price movement, though it’s important to note that this could also occur if there’s a shift in the mean or standard deviation, rather than a meaningful change in price itself.
While the Z-Score RSI could be an insightful addition to a comprehensive trading system, it should be interpreted carefully. Mean shifts may validate the indicator’s predictions without necessarily indicating any notable price change, meaning it’s best used in tandem with other indicators or strategies.
Recommendations
Before putting this indicator to use, conduct thorough backtesting and avoid overfitting. The added parameters allow fine-tuning to fit various assets, but be careful not to optimize purely for the highest historical returns. Doing so may create an overly tailored strategy that performs well in backtests but fails in live markets. Keep it balanced and look for robust performance across multiple scenarios, as overfitting is likely to lead to disappointing real-world results.
OrderFlow [Adjustable] | FractalystWhat's the indicator's purpose and functionality?
This indicator is designed to assist traders in identifying real-time probabilities of buyside and sellside liquidity .
It allows for an adjustable pivot level , enabling traders to customize the level they want to use for their entries.
By doing so, traders can evaluate whether their chosen entry point would yield a positive expected value over a large sample size, optimizing their strategy for long-term profitability.
For advanced traders looking to enhance their analysis, the indicator supports the incorporation of up to 7 higher timeframe biases .
Additionally, the higher timeframe pivot level can be adjusted according to the trader's preferences,
Offering maximum adaptability to different strategies and needs, further helping to maximize positive EV.
EV=(P(Win)×R(Win))−(P(Loss)×R(Loss))
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What's the purpose of these levels? What are the underlying calculations?
1. Understanding Swing highs and Swing Lows
Swing High: A Swing High is formed when there is a high with 2 lower highs to the left and right.
Swing Low: A Swing Low is formed when there is a low with 2 higher lows to the left and right.
2. Understanding the purpose and the underlying calculations behind Buyside, Sellside and Pivot levels.
3. Identifying Discount and Premium Zones.
4. Importance of Risk-Reward in Premium and Discount Ranges
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How does the script calculate probabilities?
The script calculates the probability of each liquidity level individually. Here's the breakdown:
1. Upon the formation of a new range, the script waits for the price to reach and tap into pivot level level. Status: "⏸" - Inactive
2. Once pivot level is tapped into, the pivot status becomes activated and it waits for either liquidity side to be hit. Status: "▶" - Active
3. If the buyside liquidity is hit, the script adds to the count of successful buyside liquidity occurrences. Similarly, if the sellside is tapped, it records successful sellside liquidity occurrences.
4. Finally, the number of successful occurrences for each side is divided by the overall count individually to calculate the range probabilities.
Note: The calculations are performed independently for each directional range. A range is considered bearish if the previous breakout was through a sellside liquidity. Conversely, a range is considered bullish if the most recent breakout was through a buyside liquidity.
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What does the multi-timeframe functionality offer?
In the adjustable version of the orderflow indicator, you can incorporate up to 7 higher timeframe probabilities directly into the table.
This feature allows you to analyze the probabilities of buyside and sellside liquidity across multiple timeframes, without the need to manually switch between them.
By viewing these higher timeframe probabilities in one place, traders can spot larger market trends and refine their entries and exits with a better understanding of the overall market context.
This multi-timeframe functionality helps traders:
1. Simplify decision-making by offering a comprehensive view of multiple timeframes at once.
2. Identify confluence between timeframes, enhancing the confidence in trade setups.
3. Adapt strategies more effectively, as the higher timeframe pivot levels can be customized to meet individual preferences and goals.
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What are the multi-timeframe underlying calculations?
The script uses the same calculations (mentioned above) and uses security function to request the data such as price levels, bar time, probabilities and booleans from the user-input timeframe.
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How does the Indicator Identifies Positive Expected Values?
OrderFlow indicator instantly calculates whether a trade setup has the potential for positive expected value (EV) in the long run.
To determine a positive EV setup, the indicator uses the formula:
EV=(P(Win)×R(Win))−(P(Loss)×R(Loss))
where:
P(Win) is the probability of a winning trade.
R(Win) is the reward or return for a winning trade, determined by the current risk-to-reward ratio (RR).
P(Loss) is the probability of a losing trade.
R(Loss) is the loss incurred per losing trade, typically assumed to be -1.
By calculating these values based on historical data and the current trading setup, the indicator helps you understand whether your trade has a positive expected value over a large sample size.
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How can I know that the setup I'm going to trade with has a postive EV?
If the indicator detects that the adjusted pivot and buy/sell side probabilities have generated positive expected value (EV) in historical data, the risk-to-reward (RR) label within the range box will be colored blue and red .
If the setup does not produce positive EV, the RR label will appear gray.
This indicates that even the risk-to-reward ratio is greater than 1:1, the setup is not likely to yield a positive EV because, according to historical data, the number of losses outweighs the number of wins relative to the RR gain per winning trade.
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What is the confidence level in the indicator, and how is it determined?
The confidence level in the indicator reflects the reliability of the probabilities calculated based on historical data. It is determined by the sample size of the probabilities used in the calculations. A larger sample size generally increases the confidence level, indicating that the probabilities are more reliable and consistent with past performance.
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How does the confidence level affect the risk-to-reward (RR) label?
The confidence level (★) is visually represented alongside the probability label. A higher confidence level indicates that the probabilities used to determine the RR label are based on a larger and more reliable sample size.
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How can traders use the confidence level to make better trading decisions?
Traders can use the confidence level to gauge the reliability of the probabilities and expected value (EV) calculations provided by the indicator. A confidence level above 95% is considered statistically significant and indicates that the historical data supporting the probabilities is robust. This high confidence level suggests that the probabilities are reliable and that the indicator’s recommendations are more likely to be accurate.
In data science and statistics, a confidence level above 95% generally means that there is less than a 5% chance that the observed results are due to random variation. This threshold is widely accepted in research and industry as a marker of statistical significance. Studies such as those published in the Journal of Statistical Software and the American Statistical Association support this threshold, emphasizing that a confidence level above 95% provides a strong assurance of data reliability and validity.
Conversely, a confidence level below 95% indicates that the sample size may be insufficient and that the data might be less reliable . In such cases, traders should approach the indicator’s recommendations with caution and consider additional factors or further analysis before making trading decisions.
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How does the sample size affect the confidence level, and how does it relate to my TradingView plan?
The sample size for calculating the confidence level is directly influenced by the amount of historical data available on your charts. A larger sample size typically leads to more reliable probabilities and higher confidence levels.
Here’s how the TradingView plans affect your data access:
Essential Plan
The Essential Plan provides basic data access with a limited amount of historical data. This can lead to smaller sample sizes and lower confidence levels, which may weaken the robustness of your probability calculations. Suitable for casual traders who do not require extensive historical analysis.
Plus Plan
The Plus Plan offers more historical data than the Essential Plan, allowing for larger sample sizes and more accurate confidence levels. This enhancement improves the reliability of indicator calculations. This plan is ideal for more active traders looking to refine their strategies with better data.
Premium Plan
The Premium Plan grants access to extensive historical data, enabling the largest sample sizes and the highest confidence levels. This plan provides the most reliable data for accurate calculations, with up to 20,000 historical bars available for analysis. It is designed for serious traders who need comprehensive data for in-depth market analysis.
PRO+ Plans
The PRO+ Plans offer the most extensive historical data, allowing for the largest sample sizes and the highest confidence levels. These plans are tailored for professional traders who require advanced features and significant historical data to support their trading strategies effectively.
For many traders, the Premium Plan offers a good balance of affordability and sufficient sample size for accurate confidence levels.
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What is the HTF probability table and how does it work?
The HTF (Higher Time Frame) probability table is a feature that allows you to view buy and sellside probabilities and their status from timeframes higher than your current chart timeframe.
Here’s how it works:
Data Request : The table requests and retrieves data from user-defined higher timeframes (HTFs) that you select.
Probability Display: It displays the buy and sellside probabilities for each of these HTFs, providing insights into the likelihood of price movements based on higher timeframe data.
Detailed Tooltips: The table includes detailed tooltips for each timeframe, offering additional context and explanations to help you understand the data better.
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What do the different colors in the HTF probability table indicate?
The colors in the HTF probability table provide visual cues about the expected value (EV) of trading setups based on higher timeframe probabilities:
Blue: Suggests that entering a long position from the HTF user-defined pivot point, targeting buyside liquidity, is likely to result in a positive expected value (EV) based on historical data and sample size.
Red: Indicates that entering a short position from the HTF user-defined pivot point, targeting sellside liquidity, is likely to result in a positive expected value (EV) based on historical data and sample size.
Gray: Shows that neither long nor short trades from the HTF user-defined pivot point are expected to generate positive EV, suggesting that trading these setups may not be favorable.
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How to use the indicator effectively?
For Amateur Traders:
Start Simple: Begin by focusing on one timeframe at a time with the pivot level set to the default (50%). This helps you understand the basic functionality of the indicator.
Entry and Exit Strategy: Focus on entering trades at the pivot level while targeting the higher probability side for take profit and the lower probability side for stop loss.
Use simulation or paper trading to practice this strategy.
Adjustments: Once you have a solid understanding of how the indicator works, you can start adjusting the pivot level to other values that suit your strategy.
Ensure that the RR labels are colored (blue or red) to indicate positive EV setups before executing trades.
For Advanced Traders:
1. Select Higher Timeframe Bias: Choose a higher timeframe (HTF) as your main bias. Start with the default pivot level and ensure the confidence level is above 95% to validate the probabilities.
2. Align Lower Timeframes: Switch between lower timeframes to identify which ones align with your predefined HTF bias. This helps in synchronizing your trading decisions across different timeframes.
3. Set Entries with Current Pivot Level: Use the current pivot level for trade entries. Ensure the HTF status label is active, indicating that the probabilities are valid and in play.
4. Target HTF Liquidity Level: Aim for liquidity levels that correspond to the higher timeframe, as these levels are likely to offer better trading opportunities.
5. Adjust Pivot Levels: As you gain experience, adjust the pivot levels to further optimize your strategy for high EV. Fine-tune these levels based on the aggregated data from multiple timeframes.
6. Practice on Paper Trading: Test your strategies through paper trading to eliminate discretion and refine your approach without financial risk.
7. Focus on Trade Management: Ultimately, effective trade management is crucial. Concentrate on managing your trades well to ensure long-term success. By aiming for setups that produce positive EV, you can position yourself similarly to how a casino operates.
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🎲 Becoming the House (Gaining Edge Over the Market):
In American roulette, the house has a 5.26% edge due to the 0 and 00. This means that while players have a 47.37% chance of winning on even-money bets, the true odds are 50%. The discrepancy between the true odds and the payout ensures that, statistically, the casino will win over time.
From the Trader's Perspective: In trading, you gain an edge by focusing on setups with positive expected value (EV). If you have a 55.48% chance of winning with a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio, your setup has a higher probability of profitability than the losing side. By consistently targeting such setups and managing your trades effectively, you create a statistical advantage, similar to the casino’s edge.
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🎰 Applying the Concept to Trading:
Just as casinos rely on their mathematical edge, you can achieve long-term success in trading by focusing on setups with positive EV. By ensuring that your probabilities and risk-to-reward (RR) ratios are in your favor, you create an edge similar to that of the house.
And by systematically targeting trades with favorable probabilities and managing your trades effectively, you improve your chances of profitability over the long run. Which is going to help you “become the house” in your trading, leveraging statistical advantages to enhance your overall performance.
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What makes this indicator original?
Real-Time Probability Calculations: The indicator provides real-time calculations of buy and sell probabilities based on historical data, allowing traders to assess the likelihood of positive expected value (EV) setups instantly.
Adjustable Pivot Levels: It features an adjustable pivot level that traders can modify according to their preferences, enhancing the flexibility to align with different trading strategies.
Multi-Timeframe Integration: The indicator supports up to 7 higher timeframes, displaying their probabilities and biases in a single view, which helps traders make informed decisions without switching timeframes.
Confidence Levels: It includes confidence levels based on sample sizes, offering insights into the reliability of the probabilities. Traders can gauge the strength of the data before making trades.
Dynamic EV Labels: The indicator provides color-coded EV labels that change based on the validity of the setup. Blue indicates positive EV in a long bias, red indicates positive EV in a short bias and gray signals caution, making it easier for traders to identify high-quality setups.
HTF Probability Table: The HTF probability table displays buy and sell probabilities from user-defined higher timeframes, helping traders integrate broader market context into their decision-making process.
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Terms and Conditions | Disclaimer
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. They are not intended to forecast market movements or offer specific recommendations. Users should understand that past performance does not guarantee future results and should not base financial decisions solely on historical data.
Built-in components, features, and functionalities of our charting tools are the intellectual property of @Fractalyst use, reproduction, or distribution of these proprietary elements is prohibited.
By continuing to use our charting tools, the user acknowledges and accepts the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer and agrees to respect our intellectual property rights and comply with all applicable laws and regulations.
Trend Forecasting - The Quant Science🌏 Trend Forecasting | ENG 🌏
This plug-in acts as a statistical filter, adding new information to your chart that will allow you to quickly verify the direction of a trend and the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future, helping you to uncover probable market inefficiencies.
🧠 Model calculation
The model calculates the arithmetic mean in relation to positive and negative events within the available sample for the selected time series. Where a positive event is defined as a closing price greater than the average, and a negative event as a closing price less than the average. Once all events have been calculated, the probabilities are extrapolated by relating each event.
Example
Positive event A: 70
Negative event B: 30
Total events: 100
Probabilities A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Probabilities B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Event A has a 70% probability of occurring compared to Event B which has a 30% probability.
🔍 Information Filter
The data on the graph show the future probabilities of prices being above average (default in green) and the probabilities of prices being below average (default in red).
The information that can be quickly retrieved from this indicator is:
1. Trend: Above-average prices together with a constant of data in green greater than 50% + 1 indicate that the observed historical series shows a bullish trend. The probability is correlated proportionally to the value of the data; the higher and increasing the expected value, the greater the observed bullish trend. On the other hand, a below-average price together with a red-coloured data constant show quantitative data regarding the presence of a bearish trend.
2. Future Probability: By analysing the data, it is possible to find the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future. In green are classified the probabilities that the price will be higher than the average, in red are classified the probabilities that the price will be lower than the average.
🔫 Operational Filter .
The indicator can be used operationally in the search for investment or trading opportunities given its ability to identify an inefficiency within the observed data sample.
⬆ Bullish forecast
For bullish trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bullish trend, with high probability of a bullish trend in the future that is currently below the average.
⬇ Bearish forecast
For short trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bearish trend, with a high probability of a bearish trend in the future that is currently above the average.
📚 Settings
Input: via the Input user interface, it is possible to adjust the periods (1 to 500) with which the average is to be calculated. By default the periods are set to 200, which means that the average is calculated by taking the last 200 periods.
Style: via the Style user interface it is possible to adjust the colour and switch a specific output on or off.
🇮🇹Previsione Della Tendenza Futura | ITA 🇮🇹
Questo plug-in funge da filtro statistico, aggiungendo nuove informazioni al tuo grafico che ti permetteranno di verificare rapidamente tendenza di un trend, probabilità con la quale il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro aiutandoti a scovare probabili inefficienze di mercato.
🧠 Calcolo del modello
Il modello calcola la media aritmetica in relazione con gli eventi positivi e negativi all'intero del campione disponibile per la serie storica selezionata. Dove per evento positivo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura maggiore della media, mentre per evento negativo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura minore della media. Calcolata la totalità degli eventi le probabilità vengono estrapolate rapportando ciascun evento.
Esempio
Evento positivo A: 70
Evento negativo B: 30
Totale eventi : 100
Formula A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Formula B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Evento A ha una probabilità del 70% di realizzarsi rispetto all' Evento B che ha una probabilità pari al 30%.
🔍 Filtro informativo
I dati sul grafico mostrano le probabilità future che i prezzi siano sopra la media (di default in verde) e le probabilità che i prezzi siano sotto la media (di default in rosso).
Le informazioni che si possono rapidamente reperire da questo indicatore sono:
1. Trend: I prezzi sopra la media insieme ad una costante di dati in verde maggiori al 50% + 1 indicano che la serie storica osservata presenta un trend rialzista. La probabilità è correlata proporzionalmente al valore del dato; tanto più sarà alto e crescente il valore atteso e maggiore sarà la tendenza rialzista osservata. Viceversa, un prezzo sotto la media insieme ad una costante di dati classificati in colore rosso mostrano dati quantitativi riguardo la presenza di una tendenza ribassista.
2. Probabilità future: analizzando i dati è possibile reperire la probabilità con cui il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro. In verde vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà maggiore alla media, in rosso vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà minore della media.
🔫 Filtro operativo
L' indicatore può essere utilizzato a livello operativo nella ricerca di opportunità di investimento o di trading vista la capacità di identificare un inefficienza all'interno del campione di dati osservato.
⬆ Previsione rialzista
Per operatività di tipo rialzista l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza rialzista, con alte probabilità di tendenza rialzista in futuro che attualmente si trova al di sotto della media.
⬇ Previsione ribassista
Per operatività di tipo short l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza ribassista, con alte probabilità di tendenza ribassista in futuro che si trova attualmente sopra la media.
📚 Impostazioni
Input: tramite l'interfaccia utente Input è possibile regolare i periodi (da 1 a 500) con cui calcolare la media. Di default i periodi sono impostati sul valore di 200, questo significa che la media viene calcolata prendendo gli ultimi 200 periodi.
Style: tramite l'interfaccia utente Style è possibile regolare il colore e attivare o disattivare un specifico output.
OptiRange | FractalystWhat’s the purpose of this indicator?
This indicator is designed to integrate probabilities with liquidity levels, while also providing a mechanical method for identifying market structure by using Fractals by Williams.
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How does this indicator identify market structure?
This script identifies breaks of market structure by analyzing candle closures above or below swing levels.
As soon as a candle has closed above or below the initial swing on your charts, the script validates that there is at least one swing preceding the break before confirming it as a structural break.
Once a break is occured then it assigns a numeric ID to the break starting from 1 and draws two extremities: one as liquidity and the other as invalidation (LIQ/INV).
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What do the extremities show us on the charts?
you'll see two clear extremities on your charts:
1. The first extremity represents the structural liquidity level. (LIQ)
2. The other extremity indicates the level that, if price breaks through it, results in a structural shift to the opposite side. (INV)
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How does it calculate probabilities?
Each break of market structure, denoted as X, is assigned a unique ID, starting from X1 for the first break, X2 for the second, and so on.
The probabilities are calculated based on breaks holding, meaning price closing through the liquidity level, rather than invalidation. This probability is then divided by the total count of similar numeric breaks.
For example, if 75 out of 100 bullish X1s become X2, then the probability of X1 becoming X2 on your charts will be displayed as 80% in the following format: ⬆ 75%
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What are the Fractal blocks?
Fractal blocks refer to the most extreme swing candle within the latest break. They can serve as significant levels for price rejection and may guide movements toward the next break, often in confluence with probability analysis for added confirmation.
If the price retraces back to a bullish fractal block, we aim to look for buy/long positions. Conversely, if the price retraces back to a bearish fractal block, we aim to look for sell/short positions.
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What are mitigations?
Mitigations refer to specific price action occurrences identified by the script:
1- When the price reaches the most recent fractal block and confirms a swing candle, the script automatically draws a line from the swing to the fractal block bar and labels it with a checkmark.
1- If the price wicks through the invalidation level and then retraces back to the fractal block while forming a swing candle, the script labels this as a double mitigation on the chart.
This level will serve as the next potential invalidation level if a break occurs in the same direction.
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What does the bottom table display?
The bottom table presents numeric breaks across multiple timeframes, with the text color indicating the trend direction. Enabling traders to assess the higher timeframes market trend without needing to switch between timeframes manually.
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How to use the indicator?
1. Add "OptiRange | Fractalyst" to your TradingView chart.
2. Choose the pair you want to analyze or trade.
3. Start with the 12-month timeframe.
4. Use the table bias with the maximal settings to find the lowest timeframe that’s showing you the mitigation (✓)
5. Confirm that the probability of the current liquidity is higher than 50%.
6. Place your limit order at the Fibonacci level of 0.618 of the mitigation candle.
7. Set your stop-loss at the mitigation level.
8. Determine your take profit based on the liquidity of the current timeframe, or if possible, the liquidity of a higher timeframe in the same direction; otherwise, use the liquidity of the current timeframe.
9. Risk adjustment and Trade management based on your personal preferences.
Example:
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User-input settings and customizations
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What makes this indicator original?
- This script leverages Fractals, a fundamental concept in many trading methodologies.
- For a break to be considered valid, price must have at least two swings:
a swing high followed by a swing low for bullish breaks and a swing low follow by a swing high for bearish breaks.
- This means that each swing point is confirmed by the formation of two candles on its left and two candles on its right, totaling 5 candles for each swing high and swing low, thus requiring 10 candles overall. (This strict rule ensures a thorough assessment of market structure before confirming a break.)
- The script assigns a unique numerical ID to each break of structure, starting from 1.
This numbering system enables the script to calculate the probability of the most recent break becoming the next break, while also factoring in the trend direction.
- Additionally, this script provides insights into higher timeframes' break IDs in the bottom/top centre table, keeping traders informed about the overall higher timeframe picture.
- By integrating these methodologies, the script introduces a unique and systematic method for identifying market structure, thereby enhancing its originality in guiding trading decisions.
Terms and Conditions | Disclaimer
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. They are not intended to forecast market movements or offer specific recommendations. Users should understand that past performance does not guarantee future results and should not base financial decisions solely on historical data. By utilizing our charting tools, the buyer acknowledges that neither the seller nor the creator assumes responsibility for decisions made using the information provided. The buyer assumes full responsibility and liability for any actions taken and their consequences, including potential financial losses. Therefore, by purchasing these charting tools, the customer acknowledges that neither the seller nor the creator is liable for any unfavorable outcomes resulting from the development, sale, or use of the products.
The buyer is responsible for canceling their subscription if they no longer wish to continue at the full retail price. Our policy does not include reimbursement, refunds, or chargebacks once the Terms and Conditions are accepted before purchase.
By continuing to use our charting tools, the user acknowledges and accepts the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer.
Price Scenarios - The Quant ScienceGENERAL OVERVIEW
Price Scenarios - The Quant Science is a quantitative statistical indicator that provides a forecast probability about future prices moving using the mathematical-statistical formula of statistical probability and expected value.
HOW TO USE
The indicator displays arrow-shaped signals that represent the probable future price movement calculated by the indicator, including the current percentage probability. Additionally, the candlesticks are colored based on the predicted direction to facilitate visual analysis. By default, green is used for bullish movements and red for bearish movements. The trader can set the analysis period (default value is 200) and the percentage threshold of probability to consider (default value is greater than 0.50 or 50%) through the user interface.
USER INTERFACE
Lenght analysis: with this features you can handle the length of the dataset to be used for estimating statistical probabilities.
Expected value: with this feature you can handle the threshold of the expected value to filter, only probabilities greater than this threshold will be considered by the model. By default, it is set to 0.50, which is equivalent to 50%.
Design Settings: modify the colors of your indicator with just a few clicks by managing this function.
We recommend disabling 'Wick' and 'Border' from the settings panel for a smoother and more efficient user experience.
Kalman Filter by TenozenAnother useful indicator is here! Kalman Filter is a quantitative tool created by Rudolf E. Kalman. In the case of trading, it can help smooth out the price data that traders observe, making it easier to identify underlying trends. The Kalman Filter is particularly useful for handling price data that is noisy and unpredictable. As an adaptive-based algorithm, it can easily adjust to new data, which makes it a handy tool for traders operating in markets that are prone to change quickly.
Many people may assume that the Kalman Filter is the same as a Moving Average, but that is not the case. While both tools aim to smooth data and find trends, they serve different purposes and have their own sets of advantages and disadvantages. The Kalman Filter provides a more dynamic and adaptive approach, making it suitable for real-time analysis and predictive capabilities, but it is also more complex. On the other hand, Moving Averages offer a simpler and more intuitive way to visualize trends, which makes them a popular choice among traders for technical analysis. However, the Moving Average is a lagging indicator and less adaptive to market change, if it's adjusted it may result in overfitting. In this case, the Kalman Filter would be a better choice for smoothing the price up.
I hope you find this indicator useful! It's been an exciting and extensive journey since I began diving into the world of finance and trading. I'll keep you all updated on any new indicators I discover that could benefit the community in the future. Until then, take care, and happy trading! Ciao.
Hulk Grid Algorithm V2 - The Quant ScienceIt's the latest proprietary grid algorithm developed by our team. This software represents a clearer and more comprehensive modernization of the deprecated Hulk Grid Algorithm. In this new release, we have optimized the source code architecture and investment logic, which we will describe in detail below.
Overview
Hulk Grid Algorithm V2 is designed to optimize returns in sideways market conditions. In this scenario, the algorithm divides purchases with long orders at each level of the grid. Unlike a typical grid algorithm, this version applies an anti-martingale model to mitigate volatility and optimize the average entry price. Starting from the lower level, the purchase quantity is increased at each new subsequent level until reaching the upper level. The initial quantity of the first order is fixed at 0.50% of the initial capital. With each new order, the initial quantity is multiplied by a value equal to the current grid level (where 1 is the lower level and 10 is the upper level).
Example: Let's say we have an initial capital of $10,000. The initial capital for the first order would be $50 * 1 = $50, for the second order $50 * 2 = $100, for the third order $50 * 3 = $150, and so on until reaching the upper level.
All previously opened orders are closed using a percentage-based stop-loss and take-profit, calculated based on the extremes of the grid.
Set Up
As mentioned earlier, the user's goal is to analyze this strategy in markets with a lack of trend, also known as sideways markets. After identifying a price range within which the asset tends to move, the user can choose to create the grid by placing the starting price at the center of the range. This way, they can consider trading the asset, if the backtesting generates a return greater than the Buy & Hold return.
Grid Configuration
To create the grid, it's sufficient to choose the starting price during the launch phase. This level will be the center of the grid from which the upper and lower levels will be calculated. The grid levels are computed using an arithmetic method, adding and subtracting a configurable fixed amount from the user interface (Grid Step $).
Example: Let's imagine choosing 1000 as the starting price and 50 as the Grid Step ($). The upper levels will be 1000, 1050, 1100, 1150, 1200. The lower levels will be 950, 900, 850, 800, and 750.
Markets
This software can be used in all markets: stocks, indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies, ETFs, Forex, etc.
Application
With this backtesting software, is possible to analyze the strategy and search for markets where it can generate better performance than Buy & Hold returns. There are no alerts or automatic investment mechanisms, and currently, the strategy can only be executed manually.
Design
Is possible to modify the grid style and customize colors by accessing the Properties section of the user interface.
SFC Valuation Model - Fair ValueValuation is the analytical process of determining the current (or projected) worth of an asset or a company. There are many techniques used for doing a valuation. An analyst placing a value on a company looks at the business's management, the composition of its capital structure, the prospect of future earnings, and the market value of its assets, among other metrics.
Fundamental analysis is often employed in valuation, although several other methods may be employed such as the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) or the dividend discount model (DDM), Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and many others.
A valuation can be useful when trying to determine the fair value of a security, which is determined by what a buyer is willing to pay a seller, assuming both parties enter the transaction willingly. When a security trades on an exchange, buyers and sellers determine the market value of a stock or bond.
There is no universal standard for calculating the intrinsic value of a company or stock. Financial analysts attempt to determine an asset's intrinsic value by using fundamental and technical analyses to gauge its actual financial performance.
Intrinsic value is useful because it can help an investor understand whether a potential investment is overvalued or undervalued.
This indicator allows investors to simulate different scenarios depending on their view of the stock's value. It calculates different models automatically, but users can define the fair value manually by changing the settings.
For example: change the weight of the model; choose how conservatively want to evaluate the stock; use different growth rate or discount rate and so on.
The indicator shows other useful metrics in order to help investors to evaluate the stock.
This indicator can save users hours of searching financial data and calculating fair value.
There are few valuation methods/steps
- Macroeconomics - analyse the current economic;
- Define how the sector is performing;
- Relative valuation method - compare few stocks and find the Outlier;
- Absolute valuation method historically- define how the stock performed in the past;
- Absolute valuation method - define how the stock is performed now and find the fair value;
- Technical analysis
How to use:
1. Once you have completed the initial evaluation steps, simply load the indicator.
2. Check the default settings and see if they suit you.
3. Find the fair value and wait for the stock to reach it.
Returns Model by TenozenHey there! I've been diving into the book "Paul Wilmott on Quantitative Finance," and I stumbled upon this cool model for calculating and modeling returns. Basically, it helps us figure out how much a price has changed over a set number of periods—I like to use 20 periods as a default. Once we get that rate of change value, we crunch some numbers to find the standard deviation and mean using all the historical data we have. That's the foundation of this model.
Now, let's talk about how to use it. This model shows us how returns and price behavior are connected. When returns hang out in the +1 to +2 standard deviation range, it usually means returns are about to drop, and vice versa. Often, this leads to corresponding price moves. But here's the thing: sometimes prices don't do what we expect. Why? It's because there's another hidden factor at play—I like to call it "power."
This "power" isn't something we can see directly, but it's there. Basically, when returns are within that standard deviation range, the market faces resistance when trying to move in its preferred direction, whether bullish or bearish. The strength of this "power" determines if the market will snap back to the average or go for a wild ride. It can show up as small price wiggles, big price jumps, or lightning-fast moves. By understanding this "power," we can get a better handle on what the market might do next and avoid getting blindsided. In the meantime, I couldn't explain "power" yet, but In the future, when I've learned enough, I'd love to share the model with you guys!
So... I'm planning to explore and share more models from this book as I learn, even if those pesky math formulas can be tough to crack. I hope you find this indicator as helpful as I do, and if you've got any suggestions or feedback, please feel free to share! Ciao!
Ratio To Average - The Quant ScienceRatio To Average - The Quant Science is a quantitative indicator that calculates the percentage ratio of the market price in relation to a reference average. The indicator allows the calculation of the ratio using four different types of averages: SMA, EMA, WMA, and HMA. The ratio is represented by a series of histograms that highlight periods when the ratio is positive (in green) and periods when the ratio is negative (in red).
What is the Ratio to Average?
The Ratio to Average is a measure that tracks the price movements with one of its averages, calculating how much the price is above or below its own average, in percentage terms.
USER INTERFACE
Lenght: it adjusts the number of bars to include in the calculation of the average.
Moving Average: it allows you to choose the type of average to use.
Color Up/Color Down : it allows you to choose the color of the indicator for positive and negative ratios.
