2013-2025 Moon Phases & Mercury RetrogradesIndicator Description: 2013-2025 Moon Phases & Mercury Retrogrades
This Pine Script (version 5) indicator overlays key astrological events on a TradingView chart, specifically tracking full moons, new moons, and Mercury retrograde periods from 2013 to 2025. It is designed to help traders and astrology enthusiasts visualize these celestial events alongside price action, potentially identifying correlations or patterns.
Features:
New Moons:
Visualization: Plotted as small white circles above the price bars.
Data: Includes 156 specific new moon dates from January 11, 2013, to December 20, 2025.
Purpose: Marks the start of the lunar cycle, often associated with new beginnings or shifts in energy.
Full Moons:
Visualization: Plotted as small orange circles above the price bars.
Data: Includes 157 specific full moon dates from January 27, 2013, to December 15, 2025.
Purpose: Highlights the peak of the lunar cycle, often linked to heightened emotions or market volatility in astrological analysis.
Mercury Retrogrades:
Visualization: Displayed as a light red background highlight across the chart.
Data: Covers 39 Mercury retrograde periods, with precise start and end timestamps from February 23, 2013, to November 29, 2025.
Purpose: Indicates periods traditionally associated with communication issues, delays, or reversals, which some traders monitor for potential market impacts.
Technical Details:
Overlay: The indicator is set to overlay=true, meaning it displays directly on the price chart rather than in a separate pane.
Date Matching: Uses a helper function is_date(y, m, d) to check if the current chart date matches any of the predefined event dates, leveraging TradingView's year, month, and dayofmonth variables.
Visualization Methods:
plotshape: Used for new moons (white circles) and full moons (orange circles), positioned above bars for clear visibility.
bgcolor: Used for Mercury retrograde periods, applying a semi-transparent red highlight (transparency level 85) to the background during active retrograde periods.
Time Range: Spans from January 2013 to December 2025, providing a comprehensive 13-year view of these astrological events.
Usage:
Add the script to your TradingView chart to see new moons, full moons, and Mercury retrograde periods overlaid on your chosen symbol and timeframe.
The white and orange circles appear on specific dates, while the red background highlights extend across the duration of each Mercury retrograde period.
Useful for traders incorporating astrology into their analysis or anyone interested in tracking these celestial events alongside financial data.
Notes:
The script assumes accurate date data as provided; users should verify dates against astronomical sources if precision is critical.
The transparency of the Mercury retrograde background can be adjusted by modifying the value in color.new(color.red, 85) (0 = fully opaque, 100 = fully transparent).
Best viewed on daily or higher timeframes for clarity, though it works on any timeframe supported by TradingView.
This indicator provides a visual tool to explore the potential influence of lunar phases and Mercury retrograde periods on market behavior, blending astrology with technical analysis in a clear, customizable format.
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Donchian x WMA Crossover (2025 Only, Adjustable TP, Real OHLC)Short Description:
Long-only breakout system that goes long when the Donchian Low crosses up through a Weighted Moving Average, and closes when it crosses back down (with an optional take-profit), restricted to calendar year 2025. All signals use the instrument’s true OHLC data (even on Heikin-Ashi charts), start with 1 000 AUD of capital, and deploy 100 % equity per trade.
Ideal parameters configured for Temple & Webster on ASX 30 minute candles. Adjust parameter to suit however best to download candle interval data and have GPT test the pine script for optimum parameters for your trading symbol.
Detailed Description
1. Strategy Concept
This strategy captures trend-driven breakouts off the bottom of a Donchian channel. By combining the Donchian Low with a WMA filter, it aims to:
Enter when volatility compresses and price breaks above the recent Donchian Low while the longer‐term WMA confirms upward momentum.
Exit when price falls back below that same WMA (i.e. when the Donchian Low crosses back down through WMA), but only if the WMA itself has stopped rising.
Optional Take-Profit: you can specify a profit target in decimal form (e.g. 0.01 = 1 %).
2. Timeframe & Universe
In-sample period: only bars stamped between Jan 1 2025 00:00 UTC and Dec 31 2025 23:59 UTC are considered.
Any resolution (e.g. 30 m, 1 h, D, etc.) is supported—just set your preferred timeframe in the TradingView UI.
3. True-Price Execution
All indicator calculations (Donchian Low, WMA, crossover checks, take-profit) are sourced from the chart’s underlying OHLC via request.security(). This guarantees that:
You can view Heikin-Ashi or other styled candles, but your strategy will execute on the real OHLC bars.
Chart styling never suppresses or distorts your backtest results.
4. Position Sizing & Equity
Initial capital: 1 000 AUD
Size per trade: 100 % of available equity
No pyramiding: one open position at a time
5. Inputs (all exposed in the “Inputs” tab):
Input Default Description
Donchian Length 7 Number of bars to calculate the Donchian channel low
WMA Length 62 Period of the Weighted Moving Average filter
Take Profit (decimal) 0.01 Exit when price ≥ entry × (1 + take_profit_perc)
6. How It Works
Donchian Low: ta.lowest(low, DonchianLength) over the specified look-back.
WMA: ta.wma(close, WMALength) applied to true closes.
Entry: ta.crossover(DonchianLow, WMA) AND barTime ∈ 2025.
Exit:
Cross-down exit: ta.crossunder(DonchianLow, WMA) and WMA is not rising (i.e. momentum has stalled).
Take-profit exit: price ≥ entry × (1 + take_profit_perc).
Calendar exit: barTime falls outside 2025.
7. Usage Notes
After adding to your chart, open the Strategy Tester tab to review performance metrics, list of trades, equity curve, etc.
You can toggle your chart to Heikin-Ashi for visual clarity without affecting execution, thanks to the real-OHLC calls.
2013-2025 EclipsesIndicator Description: 2013-2025 Eclipses
This Pine Script (version 5) indicator overlays solar and lunar eclipse events on a TradingView chart, covering the period from 2013 to 2025. It is designed for traders and astrology enthusiasts who wish to visualize these significant astronomical events alongside price action, potentially identifying correlations with market movements or key turning points.
Features:
Eclipses:
Visualization: Displayed as a semi-transparent aqua background highlight across the chart.
Data: Includes 48 specific eclipse dates (both solar and lunar) from April 25, 2013, to September 21, 2025.
Purpose: Highlights dates of eclipses, which are often considered powerful astrological events associated with sudden changes, revelations, or significant shifts in energy and market sentiment.
Technical Details:
Overlay: The indicator is set to overlay=true, ensuring it displays directly on the price chart rather than in a separate pane.
Date Matching: Utilizes a helper function is_date(y, m, d) to determine if the current chart date matches any of the predefined eclipse dates, using TradingView's year, month, and dayofmonth variables.
Visualization Method:
bgcolor: Applies a light aqua background (using color.new(color.aqua, 85)) on the specific dates of eclipses. The transparency level of 85 allows price action to remain visible through the highlight.
Time Range: Spans from April 2013 to September 2025, covering a 12+ year period of eclipse events.
Usage:
Add the script to your TradingView chart to see eclipse dates highlighted with an aqua background on your chosen symbol and timeframe.
The background highlight appears only on the exact dates of eclipses, making it easy to spot these events amidst price data.
Ideal for those incorporating astrological analysis into trading or studying the potential impact of eclipses on financial markets.
Notes:
The script uses a single-line definition for eclipse_dates to ensure compatibility with Pine Script v5 syntax and avoid line continuation errors.
The aqua color matches the original circle-based visualization, with transparency adjustable via the color.new(color.aqua, 85) parameter (0 = fully opaque, 100 = fully transparent).
Works best on daily or higher timeframes for clear visibility of individual eclipse dates, though it functions on any TradingView-supported timeframe.
Eclipse dates should be cross-checked with astronomical sources for critical applications, as the script relies on the provided data accuracy.
Purpose:
This indicator provides a straightforward way to track eclipses over a 12-year period, offering a visual representation of these potent celestial events. By using a background highlight instead of markers, it maintains chart clarity while emphasizing the specific days when eclipses occur, potentially aiding in the analysis of their influence on market behavior or personal trading strategies.
[ADDYad] Google Search Trends - Bitcoin (2012 Jan - 2025 Jan)This Pine Script shows the Google Search Trends as an indicator for Bitcoin from January 2012 to January 2025, based on monthly data retrieved from Google Trends. It calculates and displays the relative search interest for Bitcoin over time, offering a historical perspective on its popularity mainly built for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD .
Important note: This is not a live indicator. It visualizes historical search trends based on Google Trends data.
Key Features:
Data Source : Google Trends (Last retrieved in January 10 2025).
Timeframe : The script is designed to be used on a monthly chart, with the data reflecting monthly search trends from January 2012 to January 2025. For other timeframes, the data is linearly interpolated to estimate the trends at finer resolutions.
Purpose : This indicator helps visualize Bitcoin's search interest over the years, offering insights into public interest and sentiment during specific periods (e.g., major price movements or news events).
Data Handling : The data is interpolated for use on non-monthly timeframes, allowing you to view search trends on any chart timeframe. This makes it versatile for use in longer-term analysis or shorter timeframes, despite the raw data being available only on a monthly basis. However, it is most relevant for Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes.
How It Works:
The script calculates the number of months elapsed since January 1, 2012, and uses this to interpolate Google Trends data values for any given point in time on the chart.
The linear interpolation function adjusts the monthly data to provide an approximate trend for intermediate months.
Why It's Useful:
Track Bitcoin's historic search trends to understand how interest in Bitcoin evolved over time, potentially correlating with price movements.
Correlate search trends with price action and other market indicators to analyze the effects of public sentiment and sentiment-driven market momentum.
Final Notes:
This script is unique because it shows real-world, non-financial dataset (Google Trends) to understand price action of Bitcoin correlating with public interest. Hopefully is a valuable addition to the TradingView community.
ADDYad
Monthly Options Expiration 2025Monthly Options Expiration 2025
Plots the monthly options expiration dates in advance for the year 2025.
Happy trading and all the best.
Maancyclus Volatiliteitsindicator (2025)This Moon Cycle Volatility Indicator for TradingView is designed to help traders track and analyze market volatility around specific lunar phases, namely the Full Moon and New Moon. The indicator marks the dates of these moon phases on the chart and measures volatility using the Average True Range (ATR) indicator, which gauges market price fluctuations.
Key Features:
Moon Phase Markers: The indicator marks the Full Moon and New Moon on the chart using labels. Blue labels are placed below bars for Full Moons, while red labels are placed above bars for New Moons. These markers are based on a manually curated list of moon phase dates for the year 2025.
Volatility Calculation: The indicator calculates market volatility using the ATR (14), which provides a sense of market movement and potential risk. Volatility is plotted as histograms, with blue histograms representing volatility around Full Moons and red histograms around New Moons.
Comparative Analysis: By comparing the volatility around these moon phases to the average volatility, traders can spot potential patterns or heightened market movements. This can inform trading strategies, such as anticipating increased market activity around specific lunar events.
In essence, this tool helps traders identify potential high-volatility periods tied to lunar cycles, which could impact market sentiment and price action.
Comet C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) Ephemeris☄️ Ephemeris How-To: Plot JPL Horizons Data on TradingView (Educational)
Overview
This open-source Pine Script™ v6 indicator demonstrates how to bring external astronomical ephemeris into TradingView and plot it on a daily chart. Using Comet C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) as an example dataset, it shows the mechanics of structuring arrays, indexing by date, and drawing past and forward ( future projections ) values—strictly as an educational visualization of celestial motion.
Why This Approach
Data is generated from NASA JPL Horizons, a mission-grade, publicly available ephemeris service ( (ssd.jpl.nasa.gov)). On the daily timeframe, Horizons provides high-precision positions you can regenerate whenever solutions update—useful for educational accuracy in exploring orbital data.
What’s Plotted
- Geocentric ecliptic longitude (Earth-view)
- Heliocentric ecliptic longitude (Sun-centered)
- Declination (deg from celestial equator)
Features
- Simple arrays + date indexing (no per-row timestamps)
- Circles for historical/current bars; polylines to connect forward points, emphasizing future projections
- Toggle any series on/off via inputs
- Daily timeframe enforced (runtime error if not 1D)
- Optional table with zodiac conversion (AstroLib by BarefootJoey)
Data & Updates
The example arrays span 2025-07-01 (discovery date) → 2026-01-01. You can refresh them anytime from JPL Horizons (Observer: Geocentric; daily step; include ecliptic lon/lat and declination) and paste the new values into the script.
How we pulled the ephemeris from JPL Horizons (quick guide):
0) Open ssd.jpl.nasa.gov System
1. Ephemeris Type: Observer Table
2. Target Body: C/2025 N1 (ATLAS) (or any object you want)
3. Observer Location: Geocentric
4. Time Specification: set Start, Stop, Step = 1 day
5. Table Settings → Quantities:
* Astrometric RA & Dec
* Heliocentric ecliptic longitude & latitude
* Observer (geocentric) ecliptic longitude & latitude
6. Additional Table Settings:
* Calendar format: Gregorian
* Date/Time: calendar (UTC), Hours & Minutes (HH:MM)
* Angle format: Decimal degrees
* Refraction model: No refraction / airless
* Range units: Astronomical units (au)
7. Generate → Download results (CSV or text).
8. Use AI or a small script to parse columns (e.g., Obs ecliptic lon, Helio ecliptic lon, Declination) into arrays, then paste them into your Pine script.
Educational Note
This indicator’s goal is to show how to prepare and plot ephemeris—so you can adapt the method for other comets or celestial bodies, or swap in data from existing astro libraries, for learning about astronomical projections using JPL daily data.
Credits & License
- Ephemeris: Solar System Dynamics Group, Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
- Zodiac conversion: AstroLib by BarefootJoey
- License: MIT
- For educational use only.
MERRY CHRISTMAS HAPPY 2025 Year [TradingFinder]🎅🎄✨ Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2025! 🎉✨
As we bid farewell to 2024 and welcome the fresh opportunities of 2025, we want to send our warmest wishes to all the amazing TradingView users, Pine Script developers, and loyal followers of TradingFinder.
Your enthusiasm and support have made this community stronger and more inspiring every day. May this holiday season bring you happiness, success, and prosperity both in life and in trading.
We also wish for all of you to make great profits and achieve your financial goals in the new year. Let's make 2025 a year filled with innovation, growth, and great achievements together.
Thank you for being part of this journey! 🎅🌟📈
Sun Moon Conjunctions Trine Oppositions 2025this script is an astrological tool designed to overlay significant Sun-Moon aspect events for 2025 on a Bitcoin chart. It highlights key lunar phases and aspects—Conjunctions (New Moon) in blue, Squares in red, Oppositions (Full Moon) in purple, and Trines in green—using background colors and labeled markers. Users can toggle visibility for each aspect type and adjust label sizes via customizable inputs. The script accurately marks events from January through December 2025, with labels appearing once per event, making it a valuable resource for exploring potential correlations between lunar cycles and Bitcoin price movements.
Currency Weekend - shading weekend trading// ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// © 2025, Steve / Steven Anthony – "Currency Weekend"
// This script highlights the low-liquidity weekend window that often affects
// both fiat currency markets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
//
// ╭─────────────────────────────── DESCRIPTION ───────────────────────────────╮
// | This indicator shades a customizable time window on your chart, |
// | originally set to highlight the **forex weekend lull** from |
// | **Friday 21:00 UTC to Sunday 21:00 UTC**, when traditional fiat |
// | currency markets close. |
// | |
// | Traders who observe Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other crypto assets may |
// | notice reduced liquidity or increased erratic moves during this time, |
// | due to overlapping behaviors from professional forex traders who |
// | trade both markets. |
// ╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
//
// 🔧 Flexible Configuration:
// - Define your own start and end **day + time** for shading
// - Useful for shading other custom quiet periods or session transitions
//
// 💡 Use Cases:
// - Avoid trading during low-liquidity periods
// - Spot potential weekend traps or price gaps
// - Align crypto behavior with fiat market hours
//
// 📍 Default Settings:
// - Start: Friday 21:00 UTC
// - End: Sunday 21:00 UTC
//
// Timezone is normalized to the chart’s timezone for seamless integration.
//
// ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
ITM 2x15// © 2025 Intraday Trading Machine
// This script is open-source. You may use and modify it, but please give credit.
// Colors the current 15-minute candle body green or red if the two previous candles were both bullish or bearish.
This script is designed for traders using the Scalping Intraday Trading Machine technique. It highlights when two consecutive 15-minute candles close in the same direction — either both bullish or both bearish.
For example, if you see two consecutive bearish candles, you might look for a long entry on a break above the high of the first bearish candle. This tool helps you visually identify these setups with clean, directional candle coloring — no clutter.
SPX Weekly Expected Moves# SPX Weekly Expected Moves Indicator
A professional Pine Script indicator for TradingView that displays weekly expected move levels for SPX based on real options data, with integrated Fibonacci retracement analysis and intelligent alerting system.
## Overview
This indicator helps options and equity traders visualize weekly expected move ranges for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by plotting historical and current week expected move boundaries derived from weekly options pricing. Unlike theoretical volatility calculations, this indicator uses actual market-based expected move data that you provide from options platforms.
## Key Features
### 📈 **Expected Move Visualization**
- **Historical Lines**: Display past weeks' expected moves with configurable history (10, 26, or 52 weeks)
- **Current Week Focus**: Highlighted current week with extended lines to present time
- **Friday Close Reference**: Orange baseline showing the previous Friday's close price
- **Timeframe Independent**: Works consistently across all chart timeframes (1m to 1D)
### 🎯 **Fibonacci Integration**
- **Five Fibonacci Levels**: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% between Friday close and expected move boundaries
- **Color-Coded Levels**:
- Red: 23.6% & 76.4% (outer levels)
- Blue: 38.2% & 61.8% (golden ratio levels)
- Black: 50% (midpoint - most critical level)
- **Current Week Only**: Fibonacci levels shown only for active trading week to reduce clutter
### 📊 **Real-Time Information Table**
- **Current SPX Price**: Live market price
- **Expected Move**: ±EM value for current week
- **Previous Close**: Friday close price (baseline for calculations)
- **100% EM Levels**: Exact upper and lower boundary prices
- **Current Location**: Real-time position within the EM structure (e.g., "Above 38.2% Fib (upper zone)")
### 🚨 **Intelligent Alert System**
- **Zone-Aware Alerts**: Separate alerts for upper and lower zones
- **Key Level Breaches**: Alerts for 23.6% and 76.4% Fibonacci level crossings
- **Bar Close Based**: Alerts trigger on confirmed bar closes, not tick-by-tick
- **Customizable**: Enable/disable alerts through settings
## How It Works
### Data Input Method
The indicator uses a **manual data entry approach** where you input actual expected move values obtained from options platforms:
```pinescript
// Add entries using the options expiration Friday date
map.put(expected_moves, 20250613, 91.244) // Week ending June 13, 2025
map.put(expected_moves, 20250620, 95.150) // Week ending June 20, 2025
```
### Weekly Structure
- **Monday 9:30 AM ET**: Week begins
- **Friday 4:00 PM ET**: Week ends
- **Lines Extend**: From Monday open to Friday close (historical) or current time + 5 bars (current week)
- **Timezone Handling**: Uses "America/New_York" for proper DST handling
### Calculation Logic
1. **Base Price**: Previous Friday's SPX close price
2. **Expected Move**: Market-derived ±EM value from weekly options
3. **Upper Boundary**: Friday Close + Expected Move
4. **Lower Boundary**: Friday Close - Expected Move
5. **Fibonacci Levels**: Proportional levels between Friday close and EM boundaries
## Setup Instructions
### 1. Data Collection
Obtain weekly expected move values from options platforms such as:
- **ThinkOrSwim**: Use thinkBack feature to look up weekly expected moves
- **Tastyworks**: Check weekly options expected move data
- **CBOE**: Reference SPX weekly options data
- **Manual Calculation**: (ATM Call Premium + ATM Put Premium) × 0.85
### 2. Data Entry
After each Friday close, update the indicator with the next week's expected move:
```pinescript
// Example: On Friday June 7, 2025, add data for week ending June 13
map.put(expected_moves, 20250613, 91.244) // Actual EM value from your platform
```
### 3. Configuration
Customize the indicator through the settings panel:
#### Visual Settings
- **Show Current Week EM**: Toggle current week display
- **Show Past Weeks**: Toggle historical weeks display
- **Max Weeks History**: Choose 10, 26, or 52 weeks of history
- **Show Fibonacci Levels**: Toggle Fibonacci retracement levels
- **Label Controls**: Customize which labels to display
#### Colors
- **Current Week EM**: Default yellow for active week
- **Past Weeks EM**: Default gray for historical weeks
- **Friday Close**: Default orange for baseline
- **Fibonacci Levels**: Customizable colors for each level type
#### Alerts
- **Enable EM Breach Alerts**: Master toggle for all alerts
- **Specific Alerts**: Four alert types for Fibonacci level breaches
## Trading Applications
### Options Trading
- **Straddle/Strangle Positioning**: Visualize breakeven levels for neutral strategies
- **Directional Plays**: Assess probability of reaching target levels
- **Earnings Plays**: Compare actual vs. expected move outcomes
### Equity Trading
- **Support/Resistance**: Use EM boundaries and Fibonacci levels as key levels
- **Breakout Trading**: Monitor for moves beyond expected ranges
- **Mean Reversion**: Look for reversals at extreme Fibonacci levels
### Risk Management
- **Position Sizing**: Gauge likely price ranges for the week
- **Stop Placement**: Use Fibonacci levels for logical stop locations
- **Profit Targets**: Set targets based on EM structure probabilities
## Technical Implementation
### Performance Features
- **Memory Managed**: Configurable history limits prevent memory issues
- **Timeframe Independent**: Uses timestamp-based calculations for consistency
- **Object Management**: Automatic cleanup of drawing objects prevents duplicates
- **Error Handling**: Robust bounds checking and NA value handling
### Pine Script Best Practices
- **v6 Compliance**: Uses latest Pine Script version features
- **User Defined Types**: Structured data management with WeeklyEM type
- **Efficient Drawing**: Smart line/label creation and deletion
- **Professional Standards**: Clean code organization and comprehensive documentation
## Customization Guide
### Adding New Weeks
```pinescript
// Add after market close each Friday
map.put(expected_moves, YYYYMMDD, EM_VALUE)
```
### Color Schemes
Customize colors for different trading styles:
- **Dark Theme**: Use bright colors for visibility
- **Light Theme**: Use contrasting dark colors
- **Minimalist**: Use single color with transparency
### Label Management
Control label density:
- **Show Current Week Labels Only**: Reduce clutter for active trading
- **Show All Labels**: Full information for analysis
- **Selective Display**: Choose specific label types
## Troubleshooting
### Common Issues
1. **No Lines Appearing**: Check that expected move data is entered for current/recent weeks
2. **Wrong Time Display**: Ensure "America/New_York" timezone is properly handled
3. **Duplicate Lines**: Restart indicator if drawing objects appear duplicated
4. **Missing Fibonacci Levels**: Verify "Show Fibonacci Levels" is enabled
### Data Validation
- **Expected Move Format**: Use positive numbers (e.g., 91.244, not ±91.244)
- **Date Format**: Use YYYYMMDD format (e.g., 20250613)
- **Reasonable Values**: Verify EM values are realistic (typically 50-200 for SPX)
## Version History
### Current Version
- **Pine Script v6**: Latest version compatibility
- **Fibonacci Integration**: Five-level retracement analysis
- **Zone-Aware Alerts**: Upper/lower zone differentiation
- **Dynamic Line Management**: Smart current week extension
- **Professional UI**: Comprehensive information table
### Future Enhancements
- **Multiple Symbols**: Extend beyond SPX to other indices
- **Automated Data**: Integration with options data APIs
- **Statistical Analysis**: Success rate tracking for EM predictions
- **Additional Levels**: Custom percentage levels beyond Fibonacci
## License & Usage
This indicator is designed for educational and trading purposes. Users are responsible for:
- **Data Accuracy**: Ensuring correct expected move values
- **Risk Management**: Proper position sizing and risk controls
- **Market Understanding**: Comprehending options-based expected move concepts
## Support
For questions, issues, or feature requests related to this indicator, please refer to the code comments and documentation within the Pine Script file.
---
**Disclaimer**: This indicator is for informational purposes only. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
H2-25 cuts (bp)This custom TradingView indicator tracks and visualizes the implied pricing of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the market, specifically for the second half of 2025. It does so by comparing the price differences between two specific Fed funds futures contracts: one for June 2025 and one for December 2025. These contracts are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and are a widely-used market gauge of the expected path of U.S. interest rates.
The indicator calculates the difference between the implied rates for June and December 2025, and then multiplies the result by 100 to express it in basis points (bps). Each 0.01 change in the spread corresponds to a 1-basis point change in expectations for future rate cuts. A positive value indicates that the market is pricing in a higher likelihood of one or more rate cuts in 2025, while a negative value suggests that the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady or even raise them.
The plot represents the difference in implied rate cuts (in basis points) between the two contracts:
June 2025 (ZQM2025): A contract representing the implied Fed funds rate for June 2025.
December 2025 (ZQZ2025): A contract representing the implied Fed funds rate for December 2025.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Traders Reality Rate Spike Monitor 0.1 betaTraders Reality Rate Spike Monitor
## **Early Warning System for Interest Rate-Driven Market Crashes**
Based on critical market analysis revealing the dangerous correlation between interest rate spikes and major market selloffs, this indicator provides **three-tier alerts** for US 10-Year Treasury yield acceleration.
### **📊 Key Market Intelligence:**
**Historical Precedent:** The 2018 market crash occurred when unrealized bank losses hit $256 billion with interest rates at just 2.5%. **Current unrealized losses have reached $560 billion** - more than double the 2018 levels - while rates sit at 4.5%.
**Critical Vulnerabilities:**
- **$559 billion in tech sector debt** maturing through 2025
- **65% of investment-grade debt** rated BBB (vulnerable to adverse conditions)
- **$9.5 trillion in total debt** requiring refinancing
- Every 1% rate increase costs the economy **$360 billion annually**
### **🚨 Alert System:**
**📊 WATCH (20+ basis points/3 days):** Early positioning signal
**⚠️ WARNING (30+ basis points/3 days):** Prepare for volatility
**🚨 CRITICAL (40+ basis points/3 days):** Historical crash threshold
### **💡 Why This Matters:**
Interest rate spikes historically trigger major market corrections:
- **2018:** 70 basis points spike → 20% S&P 500 crash
- **2025:** Similar pattern led to massive selloffs
- **Current risk:** 2x higher unrealized losses than 2018
### **⚡ Features:**
✅ **Zero chart clutter** - invisible until alerts trigger
✅ **Dynamic calculation** - automatically adjusts to current yield levels
✅ **Multi-timeframe compatibility** - works on any chart timeframe
✅ **Professional alerts** - with actual basis point calculations
### **🎯 Use Case:**
Perfect for traders and investors who understand that **debt refinancing pressure** and **unrealized bank losses** create systemic risks that manifest through interest rate volatility. When rates spike rapidly, leveraged positions unwind and markets crash.
**"Every point costs us $360 billion a year. Think of that."** - This indicator helps you see those critical rate movements before the market does.
---
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational purposes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage risk appropriately.
---
This description positions your indicator as a **serious professional tool** based on real market analysis rather than just another technical indicator! 🚀
Tuga SupertrendDescription
This strategy uses the Supertrend indicator enhanced with commission and slippage filters to capture trends on the daily chart. It’s designed to work on any asset but is especially effective in markets with consistent movements.
Use the date inputs to set the backtest period (default: from January 1, 2018, through today, June 30, 2025).
The default input values are optimized for the daily chart. For other timeframes, adjust the parameters to suit the asset you’re testing.
Release Notes
June 30, 2025
• Updated default backtest period to end on June 30, 2025.
• Default commission adjusted to 0.1 %.
• Slippage set to 3 ticks.
• Default slippage set to 3 ticks.
• Simplified the strategy name to “Tuga Supertrend”.
Default Parameters
Parameter Default Value
Supertrend Period 10
Multiplier (Factor) 3
Commission 0.1 %
Slippage 3 ticks
Start Date January 1, 2018
End Date June 30, 2025
Jackson Hole Meetings - Lines and LabelsThis TradingView Pine Script indicator marks the dates of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium meetings on your chart. For each meeting date from 2020 through 2025, it draws a red dashed vertical line directly on the corresponding daily bar. Additionally, it places a label above the bar indicating the year of the meeting (e.g., "JH 2025").
Features:
Marks all known Jackson Hole meeting dates from 2020 to 2025.
Draws a vertical dashed line on each meeting day for clear visual identification.
Displays a label above the candle with the meeting year.
Works best on daily timeframe charts.
Helps traders quickly spot potential market-moving events related to Jackson Hole meetings.
Use this tool to visually correlate price action with these key Federal Reserve events and enhance your trading analysis.
VWATR + VIX + VVIX Trend Regime### 🤖 VWATR + VIX + VVIX Trend Regime — Your Ultimate Volatility Dashboard! 📊
This isn't just another indicator; it's a comprehensive dashboard that brings together everything you need to understand market volatility focused on Futures. It merges price-based movement with market-wide fear and sentiment, giving you a powerful edge in your trading and risk management. Think of it as your personal volatility sidekick, ready to help you navigate market uncertainty like a pro!
***
### ✨ What's Inside?
* **VWATR (Volume-Weighted ATR):** A super-smart measure of price movement that pays close attention to where the big money is flowing.
* **VIX (The "Fear Gauge"):** Tracks the expected volatility of the S&P 500, essentially telling you how nervous the market is feeling.
* **VVIX (The "VIX of VIX"):** This one's for the pros! It measures how volatile the VIX itself is, giving you an early heads-up on potential fear spikes.
* **VX Term Structure:** A clever way to see if traders are preparing for a crisis. It compares the two nearest VIX futures to spot a rare signal called "backwardation."
* **Z-Scores:** It helps you spot when VIX and VVIX are at historic highs or lows, making it easier to predict when things might return to normal.
* **Divergence Score:** A unique tool to flag potential market shifts when the VIX and VVIX start moving in completely different directions.
* **Regime Classification:** The script automatically labels the market as "Full Panic," "Known Crisis," "Surface Calm," "Stress," or "Normal," so you always know where you stand.
* **Gradient Bars:** A visual treat! The background of your chart changes color to reflect real-time volatility shifts, giving you an instant feel for the market's mood.
* **Alerts:** Get push notifications on your phone for key events like "Full Panic" or "Backwardation" so you never miss a beat.
***
### 📝 Panel/Table Outputs
This is your mission control! The on-screen table gives you a clean summary of the current market regime, VIX and VVIX values, their ratios, term structure, Z-scores, and signals. Everything you need, right where you can see it.
***
### 🚀 How to Get Started
1. **Check your data:** You'll need access to real-time data for VIX, VVIX, VX1!, and VX2!. A paid subscription might be necessary for this.
2. **Add it to your chart:** Use the indicator on any chart (we've set it to `overlay=false`) to get your full volatility dashboard.
3. **Tweak it to perfection:** Head over to the Settings panel to customize the thresholds, colors, and your all-important "Jolt Value."
4. **Start trading smarter:** Use the dashboard to inform your trades, hedge your portfolio, and manage risk with confidence.
***
### ⚙️ Customization & Key Settings
* `showVWATR`: Toggle your price-volatility metric on or off.
* `showExpectedVol`: See the expected volatility as a percentage of the current price.
* `joltLevel`: This is a very important line on your chart! It's your personal trigger for when volatility is getting a little too wild. More on this below.
* `enableGradientBars`: Turn the awesome colored background on or off.
* `enableTable`: Hide or show your information table.
* `VIX/VVIX/VX1!/VX2! symbols`: If your broker uses different symbols for these, you can change them here.
* `VIX/VVIX thresholds`: Adjust these levels to fine-tune the indicator to your personal risk tolerance.
***
### 💡 Jolt Value: A Quick Guide for Smart Traders 🧠
The **jolt value** is your personal tripwire for volatility. Think of it as a warning light on your car's dashboard. You set the level, and when volatility (VWATR) crosses that line, you get an instant signal that something interesting is happening.
**How to Set Your Jolt Value:**
The ideal jolt value is dynamic. You want to keep it just a little above the current VIX level to stay alert without getting too many false alarms.
| Current VIX Level | Market Regime | Recommended Jolt Value |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Under 15 | Calm/Complacent | 15–16 |
| 15–20 | Typical/Normal | 16–18 |
| 20–30 | Cautious/Active | 18–22 |
| Over 30 | Stress/Panic | 30+ |
**A Pro Tip for August 2025:** Since the VIX is hovering around 14.7, setting your jolt value to **16.5** is a great starting point for keeping an eye on things. If the VIX starts to climb above 20, you should adjust your jolt level to match the new reality.
***
### ⚠️ Important Things to Note
* You might experience some data delays if you're not on a paid TradingView plan or your broker does not provide real-time data for the VIX also VIX is only active during NY session, so it's not advised to use it outside of normal trading hours!
Multi-EMA Crossover StrategyMulti-EMA Crossover Strategy
This strategy uses multiple exponential moving average (EMA) crossovers to identify bullish trends and execute long trades. The approach involves progressively stronger signals as different EMA pairs cross, indicating increasing bullish momentum. Each crossover triggers a long entry, and the intensity of bullish sentiment is reflected in the color of the bars on the chart. Conversely, bearish trends are represented by red bars.
Strategy Logic:
First Long Entry: When the 1-day EMA crosses above the 5-day EMA, it signals initial bullish momentum.
Second Long Entry: When the 3-day EMA crosses above the 10-day EMA, it confirms stronger bullish sentiment.
Third Long Entry: When the 5-day EMA crosses above the 20-day EMA, it indicates further trend strength.
Fourth Long Entry: When the 10-day EMA crosses above the 40-day EMA, it suggests robust long-term bullish momentum.
The bar colors reflect these conditions:
More blue bars indicate stronger bullish sentiment as more short-term EMAs are above their longer-term counterparts.
Red bars represent bearish conditions when short-term EMAs are below longer-term ones.
Example: Bitcoin Trading on a Daily Timeframe
Bullish Scenario:
Imagine Bitcoin is trading at $30,000 on March 31, 2025:
First Signal: The 1-day EMA crosses above the 5-day EMA at $30,000. This suggests initial upward momentum, prompting a small long entry.
Second Signal: A few days later, the 3-day EMA crosses above the 10-day EMA at $31,000. This confirms strengthening bullish sentiment; another long position is added.
Third Signal: The 5-day EMA crosses above the 20-day EMA at $32,500, indicating further upward trend development; a third long entry is executed.
Fourth Signal: Finally, the 10-day EMA crosses above the 40-day EMA at $34,000. This signals robust long-term bullish momentum; a fourth long position is entered.
Bearish Scenario:
Suppose Bitcoin reverses from $34,000 to $28,000:
The 1-day EMA crosses below the 5-day EMA at $33,500.
The 3-day EMA dips below the 10-day EMA at $32,000.
The 5-day EMA falls below the 20-day EMA at $30,000.
The final bearish signal occurs when the 10-day EMA drops below the 40-day EMA at $28,000.
The bars turn increasingly red as bearish conditions strengthen.
Advantages of This Strategy:
Progressive Confirmation: Multiple crossovers provide layered confirmation of trend strength.
Visual Feedback: Bar colors help traders quickly assess market sentiment and adjust positions accordingly.
Flexibility: Suitable for trending markets like Bitcoin during strong rallies or downturns.
Limitations:
Lagging Signals: EMAs are lagging indicators and may react slowly to sudden price changes.
False Breakouts: Crossovers in choppy markets can lead to whipsaws or false signals.
This strategy works best in trending markets and should be combined with additional risk management techniques, e.g., stop loss or optimal position sizes (Kelly Criterion).
Cash And Carry Arbitrage BTC Compare Month 6 by SeoNo1Detailed Explanation of the BTC Cash and Carry Arbitrage Script
Script Title: BTC Cash And Carry Arbitrage Month 6 by SeoNo1
Short Title: BTC C&C ABT Month 6
Version: Pine Script v5
Overlay: True (The indicators are plotted directly on the price chart)
Purpose of the Script
This script is designed to help traders analyze and track arbitrage opportunities between the spot market and futures market for Bitcoin (BTC). Specifically, it calculates the spread and Annual Percentage Yield (APY) from a cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy until a specific expiry date (in this case, June 27, 2025).
The strategy helps identify profitable opportunities when the futures price of BTC is higher than the spot price. Traders can then buy BTC in the spot market and short BTC futures contracts to lock in a risk-free profit.
1. Input Settings
Spot Symbol: The real-time BTC spot price from Binance (BTCUSDT).
Futures Symbol: The BTC futures contract that expires in June 2025 (BTCUSDM2025).
Expiry Date: The expiration date of the futures contract, set to June 27, 2025.
These inputs allow users to adjust the symbols or expiry date according to their trading needs.
2. Price Data Retrieval
Spot Price: Fetches the latest closing price of BTC from the spot market.
Futures Price: Fetches the latest closing price of BTC futures.
Spread: The difference between the futures price and the spot price (futures_price - spot_price).
The spread indicates how much higher (or lower) the futures price is compared to the spot market.
3. Time to Maturity (TTM) and Annual Percentage Yield (APY) Calculation
Current Date: Gets the current timestamp.
Time to Maturity (TTM): The number of days left until the futures contract expires.
APY Calculation:
Formula:
APY = ( Spread / Spot Price ) x ( 365 / TTM Days ) x 100
This represents the annualized return from holding a cash-and-carry arbitrage position if the trader buys BTC at the spot price and sells BTC futures.
4. Display Information Table on the Chart
A table is created on the chart's top-right corner showing the following data:
Metric: Labels such as Spread and APY
Value: Displays the calculated spread and APY
The table automatically updates at the latest bar to display the most recent data.
5. Alert Condition
This sets an alert condition that triggers every time the script runs.
In practice, users can modify this alert to trigger based on specific conditions (e.g., APY exceeds a threshold).
6. Plotting the APY and Spread
APY Plot: Displays the annualized yield as a blue line on the chart.
Spread Plot: Visualizes the futures-spot spread as a red line.
This helps traders quickly identify arbitrage opportunities when the spread or APY reaches desirable levels.
How to Use the Script
Monitor Arbitrage Opportunities:
A positive spread indicates a potential cash-and-carry arbitrage opportunity.
The larger the APY, the more profitable the arbitrage opportunity could be.
Timing Trades:
Execute a buy on the BTC spot market and simultaneously sell BTC futures when the APY is attractive.
Close both positions upon futures contract expiry to realize profits.
Risk Management:
Ensure you have sufficient margin to hold both positions until expiry.
Monitor funding rates and volatility, which could affect returns.
Conclusion
This script is an essential tool for traders looking to exploit price discrepancies between the BTC spot market and futures market through a cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy. It provides real-time data on spreads, annualized returns (APY), and visual alerts, helping traders make informed decisions and maximize their profit potential.
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
============================================
Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
============================================
If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
Enhanced Retail vs Institutional ActivityThis script highlights market activity in real-time, making it easier to infer the type of market participants driving price and volume changes.
Here’s a list of what the script analyzes:
Volume:
Current volume of the candle.
Moving average of volume over a specified number of periods.
Volume spikes: Current volume compared to a threshold multiple of the moving average.
Price Movement:
Percentage change in price between the current and previous candle.
Identifies significant price changes based on a user-defined threshold.
Institutional Activity:
High volume spikes combined with significant price movements.
Retail Activity:
Periods without volume spikes or significant price changes.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price):
The average traded price over a specified lookback period, weighted by volume, used as a benchmark.
Market Context Visualization:
Background colors to differentiate institutional (red) and retail (green) activity.
Overlays for:
-Volume bars.
-Average volume line.
-VWAP line.
In summary:
Red = Institutional activity: High volume + significant price change.
Green = Retail activity: Low volume or insignificant price change.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Analysis Explanation:
I’m forecasting that Bitcoin will retest its November 12th low (~$85,098.75) around January 20th, 2025, where the horizontal support line intersects with the downtrend line. This conclusion is based on the following:
Trend Analysis:
The chart shows a clear downtrend with price respecting the descending trendline.
The intersection of the horizontal support and the downtrend line on January 20th indicates a confluence point where price action may gravitate.
Volume and Activity Insights:
Using the Retail vs Institutional Activity indicator, the chart highlights periods dominated by institutional (red background) or retail (green background) activity.
Current price action is in a green zone, suggesting predominantly retail participation with lower volume and insignificant price movements.
Retail vs Institutional Dynamics:
Institutional activity (red zones) aligns with significant price movements and volume spikes, often marking key turning points or trends.
The recent green retail-dominated periods suggest a lack of strong momentum, which may lead to continued price decline until institutions re-enter around the confluence area.
Volume Observations:
Volume remains relatively low during the current retail phase, indicating weak buying pressure.
A potential surge in institutional activity (red zones) near the support level could trigger a rebound or breakdown.
I expect Bitcoin’s price to drop further and test the November 12th low near $85,098.75 on January 20th, 2025. This projection is supported by the convergence of the downtrend line and horizontal support, low retail-driven volume, and historical institutional activity patterns observed using the "Retail vs Institutional Activity" indicator.
