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They do look really alike, though, don't they?

Yes. I am posting the bubble template thing.

I both love and loath the bubble template. It really has been useful to me since I became aware of it (Sometime back around 2014 I'd guess) in helping me to understand the overall structural build and decline of a trend. When combined with trend ideas like Elliot wave and fib ratios etc - this overall model has proven very useful. And over enough time, most charts end like this.

Unfortunately, the model is somewhat lacking ... details. Like, it does not mention you're going to see a "Return to normal" phase 1,000 times before it happens.

I've traded this basic model 10s of thousands of times (Because you can use this same idea on intra day trends. Over all markets this is happening 100s of times a week. More if you're on scalping time frames) and the overall path is a little more jaggy. Same idea - just it's not as nice and clean as the template.

Also if you ever spot this and are ever right- you can be almost certain if you share your ideas you'll experience a lot of name calling during this period.

Into the "New Paradigm" if you've persistently posted about it you'll have stalker trolls. That's just how markets and internet interact.

Let's for a moment suspend disbelief (Or lean in your bias if you're a super bear) and do a thought experiment on what it would mean if this was in play.

I think the really critical aspect to take into consideration here is the "First sell off" bear trap section is a very small move relative to the actual crash. It's a huge move in real time but after the big crash has happened it will be demoted to a footnote in the story of the great bubble and crash.

We have a real world historical example of this. Around 1920 there was a series of panics in the stock market. At one point things were so bad they closed the stock market. This would be the worst market conditions experienced in that lifetime and this event would be dubbed the "Great Depression".

You can now read about this event by looking up terms such as "The forgotten depression" - you'll no longer find it by looking up the Great Depression. The "Less Great Depression" became a footnote in history. A totally wild event and recovery that almost no one knows of because of the shadow of the Roaring 20's and the Great Depression.

If you apply that same concept to modern markets, the implied forecast would be horrific. We'd be having the 2008 event as the mini bear. We're calling it "Great Financial Crisis" but, in our hypothetical scenarios, history would look at this as essentially a non-event relate to the bubble that would then form and pop.

It's this starting stage I find most compelling. The probably with the "Greed / delusion" etc stages is if you're looking for these you're going to see them when the market goes parabolic, but a lot of times there market might just be making breakouts. If you look for them, you'll find AAPL charts templated to this when AAPL was $10.

The stages of late trend also look a lot like the stages of mid trend development. But what's really interesting is how well the flat "Smart" section and then the huge shake out bear trap sections "Fit" here. And if we use these levels to draw our mean the typical crash path would now fully agree with the mean reversion levels.

In this bust model the bust always comes a little under the low of the bear trap section.

And this is always a slight overshoot of the mean (Despair stage).

It has to be said it's been true you could have incorrectly used this model to make the same forecast on AAPL for a long time. The model has a lot of limitations.

But we now have a lot of confluences and ratios that really do not appear very often.

Would make a lot of sense from a TA perspective.

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More detailed version on SPX.