Trying to play ADA safe

2018年9月5日

The green line is the major down trend and the orange lines form the uptrend channel.
The bottom of the bottom rectangle represents the low of the year.
The hypothesis is that the price bounces off the low of the year and then goes down more as I expect Bitcoin to go down more.

++ Trade 3 (T3) ++
With Trade 3 (T3) I plan buy the bottom of the year and sell the last major swing low. I still have to find out how to set a stop-loss using negative fibonacci numbers.
I'll use 1/3 of my overall planned position size for ADA for this trade.

++ Trade 2 (T2) ++
This is a trailing stop-loss of my current short position. In case my hypothesis that ADA is going lower is wrong and it rallies higher instead I'll be back in the game with this trade. Stop-loss is just below the rectangle.
I'll use 2/3 of my overall planned position size for ADA for this trade as I plan this to be my major trade that I can trail lower when ADA gets cheaper.

++ Trade 1 (T1) ++
I did intend to buy on the lower part of the uptrend channel but made two mistakes.
1. I didn't recognize how many touches the line already had which ( I guess) weakens the support.
2. I could have traded the upper breakout of micro downtrend (small red line). As it never broke out I would have never made the trade.
But I've done one thing right and set a stop-loss. It has done it's job very well and the price is now 11,5% below the stop-loss.


Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner and I'm only publishing that to put some pressure on my to plan and review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.

2018年9月5日

ノート

Birds eye view:

2018年9月5日

ノート

Better birds eye view now:

2018年9月9日

トレード終了: ストップロスに到達

Result: Stop-loss reached for Trade 3 with a third of my position size I planned for ADA in total. The rest is still in USDT.

Lessons learned:
o It actually bounced like I expected from the yearly low but not at the point where I expected it and certainly not as much as I expected.
I expected it to be the lowest wick of the lowest consolidation (The blue line. I also wasn't precise enough about it --> dashed blue line) but it was a bit below the actual yearly low (red horizontal line).
I expected it to bounce around 10% but it actually was around 7%.

o I panicked out of the trade because of a longer red candle. While it was good to close the trade even a bit before the stop loss I should have waited until the uptrend ended. I need to get better in exiting a trade.

What I did right:
o The assumption that it bounces at the bottom was right.
o I had a stop-loss set to limit the losses.