AUD/JPY Approaches June Low

7月23日

AUD/JPY approaches the June low (102.62) after closing below the 50-Day SMA (101.40) for the first time since March.

AUD/JPY Rate Outlook

Keep in mind, the selloff in AUD/JPY emerged following the failed attempt to test the 1991 high (109.70), with the decline in the exchange rate pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back from overbought territory.

The RSI may show the bearish momentum gathering pace as it slips below 30 for the first time since March 2023, with a breach below the June low (102.62) raising the scope for a move towards 102.40 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

Next area of interest comes in around 100.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 100.90 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) but AUD/JPY may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of the week should it defends the June low (102.62).

Need a close above the 103.40 (100% Fibonacci extension) to 104.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region to bring the 105.50 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 106.10 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area back on the radar, with the next hurdle coming in around the 2007 high (107.82).

--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com