Our thoughts on the Aussie this morning...

2016年5月12日

During the early hours of yesterday morning the commodity currency sold-off, quickly bringing price down into the jaws of a H4 demand zone coming in at 0.7299-0.7315. As can be seen on the H4 chart, price tested this area multiple times throughout the day, and was unable to close lower or produce any meaningful advance.

So, where does this leave us? Well, up on the weekly chart, demand at 0.7438-0.7315 appears to really be struggling to hold at the moment. However, before one can say that this zone has had its day, we feel it may be best to wait and see where the weekly candle closes for the week. Daily resistance at 0.7380 may have something to do with the bullish weakness we’re seeing up on the weekly chart at the moment. Check out yesterday’s bearish response from this line on the daily chart, as it managed to push the bulls back into a small area of daily demand at 0.7334-0.7294, which has already been tested once this week already!

To answer the question above, buying from the current H4 demand is risky in our opinion. Going against daily selling from the aforementioned daily resistance, and with little bullish meaning yet to be registered at the above said weekly demand is not really what we would consdier ideal buying conditions. A close below the H4 demand, however, could open the path down to H4 support at 0.7241. A H4 close lower would likely clear daily demand, and also confirm weekly bulls have thrown in the towel. Therefore, a close below the H4 demand followed by a (confirmed) retest as supply could be something to watch out for today.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to close below 0.7299-0.7315 and look to trade any retest seen thereafter (lower timeframe confirmation required).