Aussie technical picture as we head into job's data...
AUD/USD:
The commodity currency fell sharply following FOMC announcements Wednesday, chalking up a 1.00% loss on the day. In one fell swoop, H4 price swept through orders at daily support drawn from 0.7151 (now acting resistance) and mildly surpassed 0.71 to bring in buyers off a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 0.7092. Note the 161.8% Fibonacci extension forms part of what we believe Scott Carney terms an alternate AB=CD pattern.
With buyers defending 0.71, as we write, and the H4 RSI indicator treading water within oversold territory, is this enough to draw in buyers and possibly reclaim some of yesterday’s lost ground? According to the daily timeframe it certainly is, having seen price shake hands with a notable demand area coming in at 0.7067-0.7104. This area boasts strong upside momentum out of its base, therefore suggesting strength. Conversely, however, weekly activity continues to reflect a bearish tone. Last week witnessed a close form beneath the 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7199 in the shape of a bearish pin-bar formation. In addition to this, room is seen for the sellers to press as far south as a Quasimodo support at 0.7016.
Areas of consideration:
Well done to any of our readers who happened to sell 0.72. This was a noted level to watch in yesterday’s briefing, given its connection to weekly structure: the 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7199.
While buying may enter the fold today knowing we’re coming from reasonably sound structure on both H4 and daily timeframes, the research team remains concerned about the weekly timeframe suggesting lower levels could be seen.
For those interested in attempting to fade 0.71 today, waiting for bullish candlestick confirmation to form is an option. Not only will this offer entry/stop parameters to work with, it’ll also provide evidence buyers reside around this region. As for the first upside target, daily resistance at 0.7151 appears a logical starting point.
The commodity currency fell sharply following FOMC announcements Wednesday, chalking up a 1.00% loss on the day. In one fell swoop, H4 price swept through orders at daily support drawn from 0.7151 (now acting resistance) and mildly surpassed 0.71 to bring in buyers off a 161.8% Fibonacci ext. point at 0.7092. Note the 161.8% Fibonacci extension forms part of what we believe Scott Carney terms an alternate AB=CD pattern.
With buyers defending 0.71, as we write, and the H4 RSI indicator treading water within oversold territory, is this enough to draw in buyers and possibly reclaim some of yesterday’s lost ground? According to the daily timeframe it certainly is, having seen price shake hands with a notable demand area coming in at 0.7067-0.7104. This area boasts strong upside momentum out of its base, therefore suggesting strength. Conversely, however, weekly activity continues to reflect a bearish tone. Last week witnessed a close form beneath the 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7199 in the shape of a bearish pin-bar formation. In addition to this, room is seen for the sellers to press as far south as a Quasimodo support at 0.7016.
Areas of consideration:
Well done to any of our readers who happened to sell 0.72. This was a noted level to watch in yesterday’s briefing, given its connection to weekly structure: the 2017 yearly opening level at 0.7199.
While buying may enter the fold today knowing we’re coming from reasonably sound structure on both H4 and daily timeframes, the research team remains concerned about the weekly timeframe suggesting lower levels could be seen.
For those interested in attempting to fade 0.71 today, waiting for bullish candlestick confirmation to form is an option. Not only will this offer entry/stop parameters to work with, it’ll also provide evidence buyers reside around this region. As for the first upside target, daily resistance at 0.7151 appears a logical starting point.
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