Concerning Bitcoin's halving history over the years.

2019年12月18日

A long thread concerning Bitcoin's halving history. I will be comparing all of the periods between the halvings and determine where we are in the cycle and make some fun calculations by extrapolating the information and price data we have.

I will be dividing the halving periods in 3 different area's.

Green= The run up to the top.
Red= The crash that follows after topping out.
Blue= The time between bottoming out and the next halving

First up: 2010-2012. This is as far back as the chart goes. Most notable stats here:

Green of about: +79200%
Red: -93% (168 days)
Blue: +536% (371 days)

2012-2016 Where Bitcoin spiked the interest of a lot of people for the first time.

Green: +9315% (364 days)
Red: -85% (413 days)
Blue: +366% (553 days)

2016-2020 Where we are now and where the first real adoption happened and most of us jumped in.

Green: +3466% (511 days)
Red: -84% (371 days)
Blue: +- ?% (518 days)

As you can see, unlike the previous blue area's where the price went up steadily from the bottom and didn't even get close to the previous ATH. This time, in 2019, we went up very quickly pretty early in the cycle and are now correcting from that move. I drew this purple line indicating the trend the price should probably have been in to get a more healthy run-up.
The prediction of an increase of 249% from bottom to the halving in 2020 has been made using the previous blue area's as. (366/536) * 366 = 249%Going by this extrapolation the price by the 2020 halving would be around ~$11,2K. Going by how the market is acting right now i think this might be a bit far fetched right now and i don't expect the price to increase as much until late 2020/early 2020. But who knows

I went one step further and made calculated the numbers for the next cycle (2020-2024). Once again, this is no accurate way of doing a prediction at all so take this with a big grain of salt. I discarded the 2010-2012 period for this since this skews the numbers too much.

2020-2024?

Green: +1289%
Red: -80% (I believe this could stay about the same in the new cycle)
Blue: 169%

These are all assumptions and calculations made from assumptions so these are just some random thoughts.

I went one step further and drew the area's and prices on an empty chart. This would come out to:

$156.000 Top.
$30.000 New bottom.
$80.000 At the 2024 halving.

I do think these prices are outrageous and don't believe it will get that high that soon. I do believe we could see a price of $100.000 per Bitcoin some day but i think this will take at least 5 more years but who knows. For the upcoming cycle i'd say a target of around 50K-70K would be realistic to top out. This is just based on a gut feeling not on any analysis.That's the end for this thread. I hope you had an interesting read and had fun watching the numbers. If you have anything to add or have any questions please ask them.