Mixed Stocks: Trump, Chinese Stimulus and German Crisis

11月7日

Global stock markets presented a volatile day on Thursday, with mixed trends in both Asia and Europe. Several factors have influenced this behavior, from Donald Trump's recent victory in the United States to the possible economic stimulus measures in China and the growing political instability in Germany.

Asian Markets: Caution After Trump Euphoria
In Asia today, Thursday, the initial momentum from Trump's victory, which had driven Wall Street indexes to record highs, began to lose steam. While Japanese stocks managed to rise slightly, benefiting from the depreciation of the yen that boosted exporters such as Toyota, Chinese stock markets showed less dynamism. The FTSE A50 index (Ticker AT:CHINAA50) closed up +3.69% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (Ticker AT: HKIND) managed a 3.58% rally. However, fears of harsher U.S. tariffs towards China, promised by Trump, are keeping a cautious mood in the region.

Attention is now on China's National People's Congress, where stimulus measures to sustain the economy are expected to be announced. Beijing has already congratulated Trump on his victory and maintains an open dialogue with the US, although concerns about bilateral trade persist.

Europe: Political Uncertainty in Germany and a Drop in Air France-KLM
In Europe, indices started the session with mixed results amid growing political instability in Germany and mixed quarterly reports in the corporate sector. Germany's DAX advanced 0.7%, while the UK's FTSE 100 (Ticker AT: UK100)rose 0.2%, and France's CAC 40 (Ticker AT:FRA40) fell 0.1%.

German politics have been a focus of concern after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the collapse of the coalition government and the calling of a confidence motion in January. This situation has raised expectations of early elections and could affect economic stability in Europe's largest economy.

On the other hand, Air France-KLM (Ticker AT: AF.FR) shares suffered a 10% drop after presenting a lower than expected operating performance, affected by the costs derived from the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris and higher unit costs. The situation has added pressure to the markets, while other sectors, such as home delivery with Delivery Hero (DHER.GE), showed solid revenue results, slightly boosting its shares.

Oil and Dollar on Investors' Radar
Oil prices stabilized following the recent rise in the dollar and the unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories. As investors consider the potential impact of a Trump administration on crude supplies from Iran and Venezuela, Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico is also disrupting oil production in the region, adding volatility to the commodity market.
On the technical side, Brent crude oil (Ticker AT: BRENT) started the European session continuing the downward pressure of the Asian session. It is currently trading at $75.56 a barrel. The value of the checkpoint is currently in the $75 zone, so the RSI confirms with 44.30% that the price is under some downward pressure. It is very likely that the value of both WTI (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) and Brent will remain in a sideways range and seek to test with its current bullish continuation pattern the $76.06 resistance throughout this and next week, as well as for WTI in the $72.43 zone.

In this context, the Fed's monetary policy and Chinese stimulus will be key to define the direction of global markets in the coming weeks, while European policy remains an element of uncertainty. In a context of limited crude oil production, it is possible that the stock could regain its shine in the direction of $80.

Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst




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