ビットコイン／米ドルショート
Bitcoin will drop to 46k before the next run
On a purely technical game theory perspective, a BTC break out from right here, is too good to be true.
A boom in open interest has been seen after Wednesday's CPI numbers.
Everyone and their mother is expecting bitcoin to run hard, so who wouldn't open margin longs.
However, with 10Y spiking up, and US500 looking to correct its YTD record run over the past 2 weeks, this will spell huge trouble for bitcoin.
It is not that a 46k move is even warranted, it is that there is such a massive amount of leverage longs (hidden levered longs that don't show up on OI) that a pullback will quickly get bloody.
And on a technical basis, this move down to 46k would set up the perfect ascending triangle.
Nothing goes up this easily, dont get caught longing just because we are at ATH's.
This is a good time to take profit. Let the market digest CPI, let everything get cleaned out in terms of leverage, and then go hard at 46-48K
Good luck.
A boom in open interest has been seen after Wednesday's CPI numbers.
Everyone and their mother is expecting bitcoin to run hard, so who wouldn't open margin longs.
However, with 10Y spiking up, and US500 looking to correct its YTD record run over the past 2 weeks, this will spell huge trouble for bitcoin.
It is not that a 46k move is even warranted, it is that there is such a massive amount of leverage longs (hidden levered longs that don't show up on OI) that a pullback will quickly get bloody.
And on a technical basis, this move down to 46k would set up the perfect ascending triangle.
Nothing goes up this easily, dont get caught longing just because we are at ATH's.
This is a good time to take profit. Let the market digest CPI, let everything get cleaned out in terms of leverage, and then go hard at 46-48K
Good luck.
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