BTCUSD: False Breakout And Pin Bar Point To Low 6Ks.

2018年7月5日

BTCUSD update: Price has established a bearish pin bar after fluctuating around the 6431 to 6614 resistance zone. Like I wrote previously, this is a tricky area to enter new longs, especially with the 7120 reversal zone boundary coupled with a holiday trading environment.

6431 to 6614 is the .618 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish structure measured from the 6850 peak. Generally it is not the most attractive location to initiate new swing trade longs, but an exception is possible depending on the candle formations.

At the moment, there is nothing that offers a long trigger that would be worth making an exception for. With a bearish pin bar present, a break below 6414 would be a sell trigger according to the swing trade criteria that we follow.

At S.C., we always make it a point to follow best practices. That means aiming to buy near supports and selling near resistances. Since we do not short these markets, buying near a support would be the basis of our next swing trade idea. And the anticipated support is between 6126 and 5977 (minor .618 support relative to the current bullish swing).

There is nothing for us to do but wait, especially if price drifts into the 7120 bearish reversal zone boundary. With the U.S. holiday affecting the entire week, false breakouts are very likely which can lead to a sharper correction.

In summary, at S.C., we are anticipating a higher low formation following the next retrace in this market. This scenario would signal a broader bullish move is in progress. That is where we plan to initiate a new swing trade long. Until then, we wait and monitor inventory that we accumulated across the board while these markets were looking their worst (we published a number of articles on S.C. about our purchases).

There is no hurry to buy, especially in a holiday market where noise and lower volume is typical. Either this market will retrace and offer a higher low possibility, or consolidate and squeeze into the reversal zone. S.C. is where we will share a new trade idea if this market offers one. Otherwise we continue to wait.